Forecast and levels for AUD - page 6

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.26 07:33

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-07-26 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.4%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

  • THE ALL GROUPS CPI
    • rose 0.2% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.5% in the March quarter 2017.
    • rose 1.9% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2017, compared with a rise of 2.1% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2017.

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Consumer Price Index news event 



 

Australia Employment Change worse than expected, while Business Confidence and Unemployment Rate somehow pared expectations. Only Oil price is kind of supporting AUD bullish trend: the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers discussed extending their deal to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) beyond March 2018 if necessary. 

Overbought with over speculations because USD is falling, so no fundamental reasons for supporting AUD that high. 0.783 area will have to be retested. And 0.7735 is still now main Support and landing area of next-to-come correction downside. 

SGT AUD/USD Analysis

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.29 08:29

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "Even though the RBA is widely expected to keep the official cash rate at the record-low of 1.50%, the accompanying statement may boost the appeal of the Australian dollar if the central bank shows a greater willingness to move away from its easing-cycle. The RBA may highlight a hawkish outlook as the ‘Australian economy is expected to strengthen gradually, with the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom almost complete,’ and Governor Lowe and Co. may start to prepare Australian households and businesses for higher borrowing-costsas ‘the data available for the June quarter had generally been positive.’"


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.01 07:54

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Cash Rate, Reserve Bank of Australia Statement and range price movement 

2017-08-01 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.03 08:12

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-08-03 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 2.02B
  • forecast data is 1.78B
  • actual data is 0.86B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. 

==========

From official report :

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,166m in June 2017, a decrease of $409m on the surplus in May 2017."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $856m in June 2017, a decrease of $1,168m on the surplus in May 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.04 07:50

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-08-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

==========

From official report :

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.4% in June 2017. This follows a rise of 0.4% in May 2017 and a rise of 0.4% in April 2017.""The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3% in June 2017. This follows a rise of 0.6% in May 2017 and a rise of 1.0% in April 2017."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event 


 

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Something Interesting in Financial Video August 2017

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.04 09:06

Video Manual: NON FARM PAYROLL

Non-farm Payrolls is the assessment of the total number of employees recorded in payrolls.

This is a very strong indicator that shows the change in employment in the country. The growth of this indicator characterizes the increase in employment and leads to the growth of the dollar. It is considered an indicator tending to move the market. There is a rule of thumb that an increase in its value by 200,000 per month equates to an increase in GDP by 3.0%.

  • Release Frequency: monthly.
  • Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month.
  • Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

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  • Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Measures : Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry
  • Usual Effect : Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
  • Frequency : Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
  • Why Traders Care : Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
  • Also Called : Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change

=====

AUDUSD M5 with 45 pips in profit (by equity) for NFP :


EURUSD M5 : 87 pips price movement by NFP news event :





 

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.05 11:07

Weekly AUD/USD Outlook: 2017, August 06 - August 13 (based on the article)

The Australian dollar struggled with the highs but did not give up on these levels, despite RBA pressure. Where next? The upcoming week features speeches from central bankers as well as important surveys.


  1. AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 23:30. This 200-strong survey by the Australian Industry Group has been on the high ground in the past two months, above 56, reflecting robust growth in the sector.
  2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30.
  3. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30.
  4. Chinese trade balance: Tuesday, 2:00. China is Australia’s No. 1 trade partner. A rise in China’s imports implies an increase in Australian exports. China enjoys a significant surplus. In Chinese yuan terms, the surplus is expected to slip from 294K to 292K. In US dollars, the surplus is predicted to widen from 42.8 billion to 45.3 billion.
  5. Christopher Kent talks: Tuesday, 22:35. Kent is the RBA Assistant Governor and he speaks in Sydney.
  6. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. 
  7. Home Loans: Wednesday, 1:30. 
  8. Chinese inflation data: Wednesday, 1:30. Rises in Chinese prices imply growth, thus moving the Australian dollar. Producer prices were up 5.5% y/y in June are now expected to accelerate to 5.6%. Consumer prices are predicted to remain unchanged at 1.5%. Australian commodity prices are also reflected in producer prices.
  9. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. 
  10. Philip Lowe talks: Thursday, 23:30. The Governor of the RBA makes an official testimony in Melbourne.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.13 09:13

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The sole obvious likely market mover is official employment release which will come on Wednesday. Even that is likely to have a binary and probably transitory impact on the currency; good numbers will mean Aussie gains, poor ones will see it slip. Next week therefore is more likely to be about the background than the economic foreground as far as the Australian Dollar goes. That means investors will have one eye on global risk aversion and another on the Reserve Bank of Australia."


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