Forecast and levels for AUD - page 3

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.06 13:27

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "With the US Federal Reserve still happy to suggest that two more US hikes are coming this year, that puts the direction of travel clearly in the greenback’s favor. Then there are commodity prices. These are crucial for the Australian export economy. They too are headed the wrong way for Aussie bulls. As for risks, well, there is a preponderance of Chinese economic data coming up. That may lift the mood a little if it manages to top forecasts. We will also get a look at Australian retail sales, building-approval levels and consumer confidence. Be aware however that domestic data seem unable to sway the Aussie Dollar very far at present unless they smash consensus either way."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.09 07:29

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-05-09 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

==========

From official report:

  • "The trend estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in March 2017. This follows a rise of 0.1% in February 2017 and a rise of 0.1% in January 2017."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.1% in March 2017. This follows a fall of 0.2% in February 2017 and a rise of 0.5% in January 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.12 15:26

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Bitcoin (BTC/USD): U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2017-05-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.6%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

2017-05-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is -0.3%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From marketwatch article:

  • "U.S. stocks looked set to pull back again Friday, ahead of data on the struggling retail sector and on consumer prices, in what has largely been a losing week clouded by political worries. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YMM7 slipped 18 points to 20,852, while S&P 500 futures ESM7 dipped 3.85 points, or 0.2%, to 2,387.25 and Nasdaq-100 futures NQM7 eased 2.75 points, or 0.1%, to 5,668."
  • "The retail-sales data for April is expected to come at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast a rebound of 0.5% growth from declines in March and February. Those declines contributed to a broader slowdown in consumer spending in the first quarter, the weakest in eight years."
  • "At the same time, inflation numbers will be released. Economists expect the core consumer-price index rose 0.2%, from a 0.1% fall in March."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales and CPI news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales and CPI news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales and CPI news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.16 08:05

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-05-16 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

==========

From seekingalpha article:

  • "The RBA held at a record low 1.5% in the May meeting, and in the minutes said, "developments in the labor market and housing markets warranted careful monitoring." Still, RBA Governor Philip Lowe has made it clear in recent speeches he would be reluctant to lower interest rates any further, saying the vast debts carried by the average Australian household could slow GDP growth if unrestrained."
  • "AUD/USD traded at 0.7422, up 0.12%, while USD/JPY traded at 113.54, down 0.21%. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its May meeting and focused on the overheated housing market and signs of softness in job creation as key signposts for the direction of interest rates."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Meeting Minutes news event


 
Sergey Golubev:


This time to rebound of AUD/USD, but i think main trend is down. Now i'm selling AUD/USD and i hope price will come back 0.730xx. This is Strategy of Teletrade, it's good!!
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.18 06:02

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-05-18 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 60.0K
  • forecast data is 4.5K
  • actual data is 37.4K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

==========

From official report:

  • "Employment increased 37,400 to 12,099,300. Full-time employment decreased 11,600 to 8,227,400 and part-time employment increased 49,000 to 3,871,900."
  • "Unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 pts to 5.7%."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event



 

AUDUSD H1 Channel


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.23 15:27

AUD/USD - rally within the bearish; 0.7488 and 0.7610 are the key resistance levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart for the secondary rally to be started by 0.7488 resistance level to be broken to above with 0.7610 bullish reversal level as the next daily bullish target.


  • "The Australian Dollar may be poised to continue higher after breaking the top of a falling channel that had contained gains against its US counterpart for two months. It remains to be seen whether the move will amount to a correction or if prices are laying the foundation for a longer-term advance."
  • "Near-term resistance is now at 0.7554, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close above opening the door for a test of the 0.7609-24 area (chart inflection point, 50% level). Alternatively, a reversal back below 0.7461 (channel top resistance-turned-support) targets the 14.6% Fib at 0.7415."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.29 06:58

Weekly AUD/USD Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

AUD/USD was unchanged last week, closing at 0.7439. This week’s key events are Private Capital Expenditures and Retail Sales.


  1. Building Approvals: Tuesday, 1:30. The markets are expecting a strong rebound in the April report, with a forecast of +3.2%.
  2. Private Sector Credit: Wednesday, 1:30. The estimate for the upcoming release is 0.4%.
  3. AIG Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 23:30. 
  4. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 1:30. The indicator is expected to improve in Q1, with an estimate of 0.3%.
  5. Retail Sales: Thursday, 1:30. The markets are expecting better news in the March report, with a gain of 0.3%.
  6. Commodity Sales: Thursday, 6:30.
  7. HIA New Home Sales: Friday, 1:00. This indicator provides a snapshot of the strength of the housing market. The indicator has not posted a gain above 0.2% this year. 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.30 07:24

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Building Approvals and range price movement 

2017-05-30 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is -10.3%
  • forecast data is 3.2%
  • actual data is 4.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. 

==========

From official report:

  • "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.1% in April and has risen for three months."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 4.4% in April following a fall of 10.3% in the previous month."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Building Approvals news event



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AUDUSD, M5, 2017.05.30

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AUDUSD, M5, 2017.05.30, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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