CFTC Commitments of Traders weekly data - page 28

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IMM Net Speculators' Positioning as at 26 July 2016

Bearish bets against the euro increased to the highest level since January in the week ending July 26. The EUR net short positions edged higher to 112.6K, up from 99.9K in the previous week.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD produced yet another frustrating rebound last week rallying from the 1.0952 low to almost 1.12 high. The main reason is broadly softer US dollar with the DXY index plunging sharply on Friday following much weaker than expected US GDP growth reported at just 1.2% y/y in Q2. Given that the Fed is unlikely to increase interest rates in the coming months, the downside in EUR/USD may prove relatively constrained with our 6m forecast set at 1.09 and at 1.07 over 9m.

Following the UK's surprising decision to leave the EU, the net GBP shorts rose to yet another year-to-date high of 80.57K in the last week of July. This reflects a preference amongst market participants to sell into GBP/USD rallies as the outlook for the UK has deteriorated and uncertainty caused by Brexit will prevail. We expect GBP/USD to fall to 1.27 by the end of the year, which would be lower than the post-Brexit low set at 1.2798.

Traders scaled back their net JPY longs from 39.35K to 34.96K ahead of the BoJ's decision held on Friday. In the end, the yen rallied against the US dollar as the BoJ refrained from providing a substantial dose of stimulus. Our baseline scenario assumes that Governor Kuroda will find it difficult to talk down the yen. Consequently, we expect the 102 level to remain a strong magnet for USD/JPY.

Despite further fall in oil prices last week, the CAD net longs increased marginally to 23.18K from 22.07K previously. The AUD net long positions fell from 33.43K to 31.51K.

Market participants who are bullish on the US dollar with net longs increasing to 22.48K from 14.53K may have to assess their view amid rapidly fading expectations that the Fed will hike in 2016.

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EUR and GBP shorts benefited from BOE/strong US jobs

Weekly Forex positioning data from the CFTC as of the close on Tuesday, August 2

  • EUR 104K short versus 112K short last week
  • GBP 83K short versus 81K short last week
  • JPY  41.7K long versus 34K long last week
  • CHF 1.7K short versus 1K long last week
  • CAD 18K long versus 23K long last week
  • AUD 31K long versus 31K long last week
  • NZD 0.2 long versus 0.2K long last week
 

Speculators Less Bearish on Euro; More Bullish on Japanese Yen, Gold


 

CFTC Commitments of Traders: AUD longs continue to expand

Forex positioning data in the futures market for the close of trading on Tuesday, August 9, 2016:

  • EUR 98K short versus 104K short last week
  • GBP 90K short versus 83K short last week
  • JPY  49K long versus 42K long last week
  • CHF 0.1K long versus 1.7K short last week
  • CAD 15K short versus 18K short last week
  • AUD 35K long versus 31K long last week
 

CFTC: Speculators More Bearish on Sterling; More Bullish on Japanese Yen



 

CFTC commitments of traders: "All in"...GBP shorts at record level

Forex positioning data in the futures market for the close of trading on Tuesday, August 16, 2016.

  • EUR 93K short versus 98K short last week
  • GBP 94K short versus 90K short last week
  • JPY 56K long versus 49K long last week
  • CHF 1.5K short versus 0.1K long last week
  • CAD 12K long versus 15K long last week
  • AUD 41K long versus 35K long last week
  • NZD 0.7K short versus 0.6K short last week
 

CFTC - Speculators More Bullish on Stocks, Oil; Sterling Net Shorts at Record Highs


 

MM Report: Investors Added To Record GBP Shorts, Pared EUR Shorts, Piled On JPY Longs


Data in this report cover up to Tuesday August 16 & were released Friday August 19.

This week’s FX positioning data from the CFTC for the week through August 16th showed investors picked up where they left off in the prior week’s data—adding to GBP net short positions. Net GBP shorts edged out to a record for a third consecutive week, rising by 4k contracts, or a little more than USD360mn, to total 94k contracts (USD7.7bn). As price action this week has shown, relatively extreme positioning leave the market susceptible to short, sharp positioning-driven corrections. We suspect, however, that broader GBP bearishness will persist, not least because the BoE has indicated that it expects the weak exchange rate to facilitate the economic adjustment after Brexit. 

Overall, the aggregate market bull bet on the USD dropped for a third week running, however, falling USD1.5bn to total USD11.1bn.Investors pared net EUR shorts quite sharply (USD630mn) and piled on net JPY longs (USD988mn) as the USD retested JPY100; net JPY longs neared USD7bn (56k contracts) last week but remain shy of peak levels seen in April (USD8.2bn).

Elsewhere, speculative players boosted net long AUD positions by USD490mn (up 6k contracts equivalent) but kept net exposure to the NZD neutral. Positioning in the CAD remains somewhat erratic relative to market movement; in the week through August 16th,investors cut back on the net long CAD exposure (by USD200mn) to near the lowest level in a year—just as the CAD strengthened. IMM positioning appears to have been at odds with the broader movement in the CAD since April.


 

CFTC commitment of traders: GBP shorts increase to record levels


Forex positioning data in the futures market for the close of trading on Tuesday, August 23, 2016

  • EUR 77K short versus 93k short  last week
  • GBP 95K short versus 94K  short last week
  • JPY 60K long versus 56K long last week
  • CHF 1.8K long versus 1.5K long last  week
  • CAD 17K long versus 12K long last week
  • AUD 43K long versus 41K long last week
  • NZD 0.9K short vs 0.7K short last week
The shorts in the GBP are the main story this week. The net short position remains at record levels as of the close of business on Tuesday at least. The GBPUSD did rally to new highs on Wednesday  but the pair is back down today and is below the Tuesday close level.  

The EUR shorts were pared by about 16K.  The other changes were somewhat modest although the JPY longs at 60K were higher than the prior week by about 4K. 
 

CFTC: Speculators More Bullish on Stocks, Gold, Oil, Japanese Yen, CAD



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