CFTC Commitments of Traders weekly data - page 30
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CFTC: Speculators Less Bearish on Sterling; Less Bullish on AUD, Gold, Oil
IMM Report: Investors Cut GBP Shorts, Increased EUR Shorts Into FOMC
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday September 20 & were released Friday September 23.
CFTC data for the week through Tuesday September 20 showed some significant positional changes in the run up to the Fed. In aggregate, investors lifted exposure to the USD modestly (just under USD1 bn) - and trimmed net long gold positions sharply ahead of the rate decision. Net EUR shorts increased by USD425 mn, maintaining bearish positioning near recent highs.
But investors took a more positive view of the GBP as Brexit fears eased; gross GBP long positioning rose sharply, suggesting bargain hunters stepping up activity. Net GBP shorts were reduced by more than USD 2 bn in the week, taking the bear bet on the pound to the lowest since early July. Renewed pressure on sterling this week may see this trend reverse, however.
Elsewhere, net AUD long positioning was reduced dramatically (USD 2 bn) while investors boosted net short NZD exposure. CAD positioning this week was little changed. The shift away from commodity FX contrasted with increased demand for CHF and JPY; net long positioning in both the traditional “safe haven” currencies rose, with net CHF longs virtually doubling on the week and net JPY long positioning remaining close to recent extremes.
Bearish net MXN positioning has risen sharply in recent weeks, reflecting investor concerns amid a tightening US Presidential election campaign. Net shorts rose by a little more than USD500 mn in the week, taking the bear bet on the peso to a record USD2.2 bn— equating to 89.3k contracts net short.
CFTC commitment of traders: GBP shorts reestablished. CAD position turns around.
CFTC: Speculators More Bearish on Sterling; More Bullish on Japanese Yen
Speculators Make Significant Adjustments In The Currency Futures
In the week after the BOJ and FOMC meetings, speculators made several significant adjustments to gross positions in the futures market. However, there was no clear pattern.
Of the 16 gross positions we track, five adjustments were more than 10k contracts. Of these five, two were large adds to gross long positions. In the remaining three, speculators cut gross long positions.
The bulls added 12.3k yen contracts to lift their gross long position to 97.4k contracts. It is the largest long position since April. The bears added 2.2k to their gross short position, raising to 28.5k contracts.
Sterling bulls are a fickle lot. After adding almost 29k contracts to their gross long position in the CFTC reporting week ending September 23, they liquidated 21.1k contracts in the most recent reporting period. The gross long position stands at 48.2k contracts. which matches the four-week average (~49.2k contracts).
Yet something more than fickleness appears to be at work. This is the third time this year that there has been a sharp jump in gross long sterling positions, followed by a large liquidation the following week. Each occurred around he quarterly expiration. It did not happen last year or the year before. Separately, note that the bears added 8k contracts to lift their gross short sterling position to 135.9k contracts, a new record.
Occasionally around the quarterly expiration, the speculative positioning in the Swiss franc also be comes volatile. In the latest reporting period, speculators cut the gross long franc position by more than half to 12.8k contracts (a 14.5k contract liquidation). The previous week it jumped by 7.2k contracts, or about a third. The gross short position changed by about a hundred contracts. The liquidation of the longs drove the net position from long 8.4k contracts to short 6.0k. Speculators were short francs briefly in August.
The bulls liquidated 22.6k Canadian dollar contracts, which brought the gross long position to 34.6k contracts. The prior week, the bulls added 11.5k contracts. The Canadian dollar does not appear prone to such large swings around expiration. It is the largest weekly adjustment in five years. The bears added 5.3k contracts, lifting the gross short position to 46.2k contracts. The net position swung short 11.6k contracts (from 16.3k net long contracts). It is the first net speculative short position since April.
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IMM Report: Investors Added To USD Longs, AUD Longs, GBP Shorts, And Turned CAD Short
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday September 27 & were released Friday September 30.
CFTC data for the week of September 27th showed speculative investors adding again to aggregate (net) long USD positions, for a third consecutive week of gains. The total bull bet on the USD rose by some USD 3bn in the week to reach USD12.4bn, the largest aggregate Bet on the USD in two months.
Positioning changes this week were substantial generally; a net increase in JPY longs of USD1.3bn takes the overall JPY bull bet to within a whisker of the record high seen in April, suggesting investors have little confidence that the BoJ’s policy easing will undercut its currency.
In addition, investors covered a similarly large amount of their net EUR shorts (USD1.2bn) and added USD633mn to their net long AUD positions. Additional, though minor, USD selling came in the form of a very modest reduction in net MXN shorts from last week’s record as speculators passed judgment on Monday’s presidential debate.
Offsetting (for the USD in aggregate terms) positions were taken in the other currencies. Investors have become suddenly quite bearish on the CAD.
For the first time since early April, speculative investors are holding a net short CAD position (USD880mn) while accounts added significantly to net short GBP positions (up USD2.3bn in the week).
Net GBP shorts peaked in August but the jump in positioning suggests a significant deterioration in GBP sentiment over the past week. Additional support for the USD came in the form of a large-ish rise in net short CHF positioning.
CFTC commitment of traders: GBP shorts increased by 10K in the week
Forex positioning and data in the futures market for the close of trading on Tuesday, October 4, 2016
CFTC: Speculators More Bullish on Crude Oil, AUD; More Bearish on Sterling
IMM Report: Investors Pushed GBP Shorts To New Record & CAD Shorts To Multi-Month High
This week’s major changes in FX sentiment were limited to the G4 (EUR, GBP, JPY), CHF and AUD.
Investors added to both long and short positions in each with larger bearish bets placed on the G4, narrowing the JPY net long, widening the EUR net short while also pushing the GBP net to a fresh record short. CHF positioning is close to neutral, and bullish AUD sentiment is relatively muted.
GBP sentiment deteriorated for a second consecutive week, pushing both the net and gross short positions to fresh record levels. Investors hold a record net short $7.8bn GBP position, and this week’s changes suggest an increasing sense of confidence among the bears—adding to their bearish bets at an accelerated pace over the past three weeks .
JPY risk is being added to both sides, with a simultaneous build in both long and short positions over the past two weeks. Fresh shorts appear most vulnerable in this environment.
CAD sentiment has deteriorated for a fifth consecutive week, the bearish net short position widening $0.2bn to $1.1bn. Gross longs have returned to the lower end of their multi-year range, reducing the risk posed by discouraged bulls. However, CAD bears appear increasingly confident and are boosting their gross short positions to fresh multi-month highs at levels last seen in March. Bearish bets appear relatively muted on a historical basis, leaving CAD vulnerable to a continued build.
CFTC commitment of traders: JPY longs slashed by 23K
Forex positioning and data in the futures market for the close of trading on Tuesday October 11, 2016