Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC - page 31
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Market Overview by FXCC Sep 26 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 26 2012
S&P downgrades South Australia
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it has lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on the Australian State of South Australia and the state’s financing arm, South Australian Government Financing Authority, to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’. At the same time, we affirmed the ‘A-1+’ short-term rating on both entities. The outlook is stable.
"The London session will be a relatively quiet one in EUR macro related terms, starting with French consumer confidence at 06:45 GMT, followed by Italy retail sales at 08:00 GMT, and German preliminary CPI at 12:00 GMT. In the sovereign debt auctions front Germany will try to sell up to € 5B in 10 year bunds at 06:00 GMT, while Italy will auction up to € 9B in 6-month bills. Germany 10 year yields closed yesterday in a relative safe 1.55% well above all time record lows from July at 1.12%, while Italy 10y yields hover around 5%. EU Vice President Rehn will attend final day at Havard University today." Traders should also be alerted to possible headlines on the Spanish-bailout, protests front, Greece funding issues and any other EZ debt crisis-related news.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-26 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BOE Credit Conditions Survey
2012-09-26 10:00 GMT | United Kingdom. CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized
2012-09-26 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales
2012-09-26 14:30 GMT | United States. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-26 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD stops triggered below 1.6150
2012-09-26 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD breaks down to 9-day lows
2012-09-26 03:06 GMT | AUD/CAD, a good sell into strength - Westpac
2012-09-26 02:57 GMT | AUD/JPY decline extends; 38.2% Fibo support in sight
---------------------------------
EURUSD : 1.28735 / 1.28739
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2970 | 1.2935 | 1.2899
1.2860 | 1.2827 | 1.2793
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Technically, market sentiment is bearish now and we expect further instrument depreciation on the medium term perspective. However fresh low, form today is acting as a bottom peak of downwards channel on the hourly chart and pull back is possible towards to our resistance levels on the short term Main scenario: Further price decrease is expected below the next support level at 1.2860 (S1). Break here is required to enable next targets at 1.2827 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3). Alternative scenario: On the other hand, consolidation looks reasonable today. The price progress above the next resistance at 1.2899 (R1) might expose next targets at 1.2935 (R2) and 1.2970 (R3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.61679 / 1.61686
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6237 | 1.6214 | 1.6190
1.6149 | 1.6125 | 1.6099
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Pair already lost -0.15% percent from its opening price today and we expect some volatility increase later on today. Medium term bias is negative for the instrument and we might see new lows ahead. Main scenario: Next support level locates at fresh low, formed today -1.6149 (S1), pushdown of the price is possible below this level. We suggest next targets at 1.6125 (S2) and 1.6099 (S3). Alternative scenario: Failure to go lower suggested support level will put in focus our resistance level at 1.6190 (R1), break here would suggest next targets at 1.6214 (R2) and 1.6237 (R3).
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USDJPY : 77.743 / 77.749
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.20 | 78.06 | 77.91
77.65 | 77.48 | 77.31
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Yesterday instrument trades without a priority in direction. Stochastic Oscillator is approaching bottom zone and we expect to see some consolidation ahead in such market setup with price progress towards to our resistance levels. Main scenario: A break of technically important level at 77.91 (R1) might determine positive bias for today. Next suggested targets for upside direction locates at 78.06 (R2) and 78.20 (R3). Alternative scenario: If the pair gain momentum on the down side and retest our support level at 77.65 (S1), we suggest next targets at 77.48 (S2) and 77.31 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Calendar | Forex Trading Strategies | ECN Trading Forex | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 27 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 27 2012
Moody's downgrade to Spain as early as today? - NAB
After poor risk sentiment on Wednesday, immediate risk now, according to NAB analysts, "is that Moody’s may act to slash Spain’s credit rating to junk, having warned in mid-June (when it cut Spain by three notched to Baa3) that further action was likely within three months." The timing of ratings agency actions, NAB explains, "has been exquisite so don’t bet against this happening as early as today."
Busy session ahead in London with all eyes focused on Spain, though there will also be plenty of risk events coming on the way. German import prices will be released at 06:00 GMT, followed 1 hour later by Spanish retail sales, German unemployment change at 07:55 GMT, EU M3 and private loans 5 minutes later along with Italy business sentiment, and EU business climate index and sentiment data at 09:00 GMT.
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2012-09-27 07:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change
2012-09-27 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Gross Domestic Product
2012-09-27 12:30 GMT | United States. Core Durable Goods Orders
2012-09-27 14:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales
2012-09-27 04:42 GMT | GBP/USD gently bid, UK GDP ahead
2012-09-27 04:35 GMT | EUR/USD capped below 1.2890
2012-09-27 03:43 GMT | JPY tone remains positive; 78.6% Fibo supports USD/JPY
2012-09-27 03:17 GMT | USD/CAD could hit an air pocket above 0.9850 – Saxobank
EURUSD : 1.28798 / 1.28803
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2970 | 1.2935 | 1.2899
1.2860 | 1.2827 | 1.2793
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market refreshed its local lows yesterday and closed in negative territory. At the moment pair is gaining 0.16% and we expect further appreciation ahead. All our supports and resistance levels remain the same today. Main scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.2899 (R1). Penetration above it might resume market strengthening towards to the next target at 1.2935 (R2). Remaining resistance level for today locates at 1.2970 (R3). Alternative scenario: On the flip side, support levels lie at 1.2860 (S1). Break here is required to enable next targets at 1.2827 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.61854 / 1.61866
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6241 | 1.6222 | 1.6203
1.6169 | 1.6149 | 1.6130
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: The upwards momentum for the GBPUSD is likely to get acceleration towards to our next resistance level at 1.6203 (R1), exactly where the 38.2% Fibonacci level lies. Main scenario: Successful break through 1.6203 (R1) would open way for further upside formation towards to next targets at 1.6222 (R2) and 1.6241 (R3). Alternative scenario: Next support level stay at 1.6169 (S1), brake below it might provide a downside priority in direction for the remaining of the day. Next suggested targets at 1.6149 (S2) and 1.6130 (S3).
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USDJPY : 77.657 / 77.662
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.03 | 77.89 | 77.76
77.59 | 77.45 | 77.31
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit oversold zone and now is pointing up. We expect further penetration above the opening price and stabilization on the positive side later on today. Medium term bias remains neutral. Main scenario: Next resistance level lie at 77.76 (R1), rise above it would suggest next targets at 77.89 (R2) and 78.03 (R3). Alternative scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the next support level at 77.59 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial downside targets at 77.45 (S2) and 77.31 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 28 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 28 2012
First Spanish banks stress test leaks
According to James Glynn, Senior Economics Reporter Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal, "6 Spanish banks have been found to hold sufficient capital levels, while the remaining 8 that were stress tested will need more." Majors are unchanged 90m into the Japan open, with HK opening now, which should bring some wider moves.
Friday's London session will see Spanish current account being published, along with French GDP final at 05:30 GMT, followed by German retail sales 30 minutes later, French consumer spending and PPI 45 minutes after, Spanish CPI at 07:00 GMT, Italian PPI 1 hour later, EU and Italy CPI at 09:00 GMT, and ECB governing council member Asmussen to give a speech in Berlin at 11:00 GMT.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-28 07:00 GMT | Switzerland. KOF Leading Indicator
2012-09-28 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product
2012-09-28 12:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index
2012-09-28 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-28 04:39 GMT | EUR/USD above 1.29 ahead of Spanish banking sector stress test results
2012-09-28 03:55 GMT | NZD/USD triggers stops above 0.8350
2012-09-28 02:35 GMT | USD selling off across the board
2012-09-28 01:54 GMT | USD/JPY on a dovish gradient - OCBC
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EURUSD : 1.29338 / 1.29342
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2995 | 1.2969 | 1.2944
1.2907 | 1.2884 | 1.2858
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: It seems that gradual decline from the major upside move expressed in correction formation comes to the end soon. Our next resistance level is the key point for the further uptrend development, if the market failed to break it today we expect to see decline below the suggested support level.Main scenario: Appreciation above the next resistance level at 1.2944 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2969 (R2) and 1.2995 (R3) for today and determine medium term bias. Alternative scenario: Bearish penetration below the support at 1.2907 (S1) would then targeting 1.2884 (S2) and 1.2858 (S3) intraday.
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GBPUSD : 1.62613 / 1.62623
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6294 | 1.6281 | 1.6269
1.6243 | 1.6231 | 1.6217
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Yesterday positive tendency remains in power with the significant strengthening for the morning hours today. In near future we expect to see some consolidation and possibly pull back. However if it manage to stabilize above the next resistance level, market sentiment would be clearly bullish. Main scenario: Potential is seen for break above the 1.6269 level (R1) and open initial targets at 1.6281 (R2) and 1.6294 (R3) levels. Alternative scenario: Downside development remains for now limited by next support level at 1.6243 (S1), with only clear break here would be a signal of market weakening with next targets at 1.6231 (S2) and 1.6217(S3).
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USDJPY : 77.533 / 77.538
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
77.89 | 77.76 | 77.63
77.45 | 77.31 | 77.17
SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: USDJPY almost reached our target at 77.45 and we expect further decline today as main scenario. It is clearly seen that pair broke sideways channel and volatility start gaining momentum on the hourly chart. Stochastic Oscillator is oversold and this is a good signal for the bearish market participants under the trend market conditions. Main scenario: Our next support locates at yesterday target – 77.45 (S1). Break here would open route towards to our next targets at 77.31 (S2) and 77.17 (S3). Alternative scenario: Appreciation above the next resistance level at 77.63 (R1) would suggest next targets at 77.76 (R2) and 77.89 (R3) on the upside part.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading System | What Is Forex | Forex Live | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 01 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 01 2012
ECB on wait-and-see mode this week - Nomura
No major policy announcements is expected from the ECB in October, says Nomura Senior European Economist Nick Matthews; "we do not expect any movement on rates as the Governing Council continues to see no urgency to cut rates again" the Economist notes. Furthermore, "while the ECB is likely to continue to expect inflation to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon, we expect the Council to continue to stress that renewed intensification of financial market tensions could affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation." Nick notes that "recent Governing Council comments, including from within the Executive Board, have reinforced this sense of wait-and-see on interest rates."
London session ahead will mostly bring manufacturing PMIs from several EZ countries starting with Spain at 07:13 GMT, followed 30 minutes later by Italy, France 5 minutes after, Germany another 5 minutes, and finally the EU's and Greece at 07:58 GMT. Then will come Italy unemployment at 08:00 GMT, and EU's unemployment 1 hour later.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-01 08:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2012-10-01 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Unemployment Rate
2012-10-01 14:00 GMT | United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI
2012-10-01 16:30 GMT | United States. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-01 04:36 GMT | USD/JPY can rise farther
2012-10-01 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD hardly above 1.28 round
2012-10-01 02:57 GMT | AUD/JPY slips below 80.50
2012-10-01 00:10 GMT | EUR/JPY returns below 100.00
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EURUSD : 1.28212 / 1.28216
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2906 | 1.2879 | 1.2853
1.2800 | 1.2773 | 1.2745
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Friday’s volatility increase might be a signal of downtrend development however Stochastic Oscillator is pointing up on the hourly chart and we expect to see some deviation ahead. Main scenario: Intraday term bias remains negative below the next support at 1.2800 (S1). Break here would suggest next targets at 1.2773 (S2) and 1.2745 (S3). Alternative scenario: Risk of further appreciation is seen above the resistance at 1.2853 (R1), penetration above it might expose resistances at 1.2879 (R2) and 1.2906 (R3) as next targets for correction.
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GBPUSD : 1.61268 / 1.61271
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6210 | 1.6182 | 1.6156
1.6108 | 1.6079 | 1.6049
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: GBPUSD failed to stabilize below the Friday’s low and we expect to see new attack to the fresh low, formed today. The medium term tendency is Bearish as both moving averages are pointing down. Main scenario: If GBPUSD manage to break through support level at 1.6108 (S1) we expect next targets at 1.6079 (S2) and 1.6049 (S3) to be exposed today. Alternative scenario: Next resistance level at 1.6156 (R1) in focus for the retracement formation. Progress above it would enable next target for today at 1.6182 (R2) and 1.6210 (R3).
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USDJPY : 77.875 / 77.878
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.28 | 78.19 | 78.10
77.83 | 77.75 | 77.67
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Instrument trades in positive tone after the Friday’ gains. On the hourly chart Stochastic Oscillator reached oversold zone and further increase is possible from current levels however we recommend to wait clear break out of Friday’s high for confirmation of the uptrend formation. Further decline below our support level might change overall technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. Main scenario: Next resistance is seen at 78.10 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we expect next targets at 78.19 (R2) and 78.28 (R3). Alternative scenario: While next support is placed at 77.83 (S1), decline below it would put in focus next target at 77.75 (S2) and any further depreciation would then be limited to 77.67 (S3) intraday.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trader | Forex Strategies | Forex Trading Software | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 02 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 02 2012
RBA cuts rate by 25bp; More may come in Nov
In today's RBA decision, the central bank has decided to cut rates by 25bp from 3.5% to 3.25%. The initial market reaction was to aggressively sell the domestic currency, as market participants pricing for -25bp to about 65% being proven right. Only 9 out of 28 replying to a Bloomberg survey agreed to such outcome, so it has been certainly a close call among the investment community.
All rates are expected to remain on hold at this Thursday’s ECB meeting, according to Standard Chartered Economists. With regards to OMT bond-buying, the bank sees Spain making a request relatively soon. Looking at the EUR/USD, "We expect the pair to grind lower as a Q4-2012 rate cut will add to pressure" Analysts at the bank say.
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-02 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Halifax House Prices
2012-10-02 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction
2012-10-02 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Producer Price Index
2012-10-02 Tentative | United Kingdom. 10-y Bond Auction
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-02 05:04 GMT | AUD/NZD drops to new 2012 low after RBA
2012-10-02 05:01 GMT | EUR/AUD breaks above 2-week highs 1.25 post-RBA
2012-10-02 04:20 GMT | GBP/USD at risk for deeper correction?
2012-10-02 03:14 GMT | Buoyant AUD/JPY creeps above 81.00
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EURUSD : 1.29123 / 1.29126
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3010 | 1.2974 | 1.2938
1.2875 | 1.2841 | 1.2806
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: EURUSD closed at the positive territory yesterday and further strengthening is possible today. Yesterday high is the reference point for the upside penetration, though decrease below the suggested support level would enable bearish forces. Main scenario: Clearance of next resistance level at 1.2938 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2974 (R2) and 1.3010 (R3). Alternative scenario: Loss of next support at 1.2875 (S1) might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.2841 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.61536 / 1.61541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6227 | 1.6201 | 1.6176
1.6123 | 1.6098 | 1.6070
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Consolidation, provided yesterday might extends its power however currently GBPUSD is gaining momentum on the upside and we expect to see retest of yesterday high. Main scenario: Next resistance level ahead locates at 1.6176 (R1), brake here is required to enable next target at 1.6201 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.6227 (R3). Alternative scenario: Instrument depreciation below the next support level at 1.6123 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6098 (S2) and 1.6070 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 78.083 / 78.086
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.40 | 78.29 | 78.19
77.97 | 77.89 | 77.79
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit overbought territory and now is pointing down. We expect to see consolidation formation ahead prior further market strengthening. However, easing below the expected support level would suggest retracement development. Main scenario: Currently our next resistance level lie at 78.19 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.29 (R2). Break here is required to enable last target for today at 78.40 (R3). Alternative scenario: Market decrease below the next support level at 77.97 (S1) would suggest about the retracement formation with next target at 77.89 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.79 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Broker | ECN Online Forex Trading | Forex Signal | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 03 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 03 2012
RBA cuts rate by 25bp; More may come in Nov
In today's RBA decision, the central bank has decided to cut rates by 25bp from 3.5% to 3.25%. The initial market reaction was to aggressively sell the domestic currency, as market participants pricing for -25bp to about 65% being proven right. Only 9 out of 28 replying to a Bloomberg survey agreed to such outcome, so it has been certainly a close call among the investment community.
All rates are expected to remain on hold at this Thursday’s ECB meeting, according to Standard Chartered Economists. With regards to OMT bond-buying, the bank sees Spain making a request relatively soon. Looking at the EUR/USD, "We expect the pair to grind lower as a Q4-2012 rate cut will add to pressure" Analysts at the bank say.
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-02 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Halifax House Prices
2012-10-02 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction
2012-10-02 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Producer Price Index
2012-10-02 Tentative | United Kingdom. 10-y Bond Auction
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-02 05:04 GMT | AUD/NZD drops to new 2012 low after RBA
2012-10-02 05:01 GMT | EUR/AUD breaks above 2-week highs 1.25 post-RBA
2012-10-02 04:20 GMT | GBP/USD at risk for deeper correction?
2012-10-02 03:14 GMT | Buoyant AUD/JPY creeps above 81.00
-----------------
EURUSD 1.29123 / 1.29126
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3010 | 1.2974 | 1.2938
1.2875 | 1.2841 | 1.2806
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: EURUSD closed at the positive territory yesterday and further strengthening is possible today. Yesterday high is the reference point for the upside penetration, though decrease below the suggested support level would enable bearish forces. Main scenario: Clearance of next resistance level at 1.2938 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2974 (R2) and 1.3010 (R3). Alternative scenario: Loss of next support at 1.2875 (S1) might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.2841 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.61536 / 1.61541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6227 | 1.6201 | 1.6176
1.6123 | 1.6098 | 1.6070
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Consolidation, provided yesterday might extends its power however currently GBPUSD is gaining momentum on the upside and we expect to see retest of yesterday high. Main scenario: Next resistance level ahead locates at 1.6176 (R1), brake here is required to enable next target at 1.6201 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.6227 (R3). Alternative scenario: Instrument depreciation below the next support level at 1.6123 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6098 (S2) and 1.6070 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 78.083 / 78.086
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.40 | 78.29 | 78.19
77.97 | 77.89 | 77.79
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit overbought territory and now is pointing down. We expect to see consolidation formation ahead prior further market strengthening. However, easing below the expected support level would suggest retracement development. Main scenario: Currently our next resistance level lie at 78.19 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.29 (R2). Break here is required to enable last target for today at 78.40 (R3). Alternative scenario: Market decrease below the next support level at 77.97 (S1) would suggest about the retracement formation with next target at 77.89 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.79 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 04 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 04 2012
Romney hits first in US debate
Is Mitt Romney breathing new life after the controversial campaign? It appears so after his first debate in front of Barack Obama. Polls show 56% of uncommitted voters say their opinion of Romney has changed for the better, while 13% say that about the President, according to Mark Knoller, CBS News White House Correspondent. According to results of CNN-ORC Post-Debate flash poll who won the debate, Romney 67%, Obama 25%.
A busy trading Thursday for the London session ahead as having plenty of risk events going on, starting with minor data in the form of CPI figures from the Netherlands at 07:00 GMT, followed by Ireland PM Kenny meeting with EU parliament president Schultz at 11:15 GMT, and then going for the long awaited ECB interest rates statement at 11:45 GMT, 45 minutes before ECB press conference starts. BoE will also deliver monetary policy announcement at 11:00 GMT which could add volatility to EUR/GBP cross. IMF will hold press conference at 14:30 GMT.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-04 11:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2012-10-04 11:45 GMT | European Monetary Union. ECB Interest Rate Decision
2012-10-04 14:00 GMT | United States. Factory Orders
2012-10-04 18:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-04 04:54 GMT | EUR/USD has a range to break; ECB unlikely to be the catalyst
2012-10-04 04:31 GMT | USD/CAD rally pauses below trend line resistance
2012-10-04 02:36 GMT | EUR/AUD hits stops above 1.2670
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EURUSD : 1.29279 / 1.29282
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3018 | 1.2987 | 1.2955
1.2895 | 1.2863 | 1.2829
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Markets would be driven today mostly by macroeconomic data releases. In focus ECB Interest rate decision at 11:45 GMT. From the technical side, deviation from its average parameters is low several days in a row and we expect to see volatility increase ahead. Main scenario: Next resistance level for today locates at 1.2955 (R1). Rise above it might lead to the further trend development with next possible targets at 1.2987 (R2) and 1.3018 (R3). Alternative scenario: Downside direction is limited by next support level at 1.2895 (S1), price decrease below it would be targeting next supports at 1.2863 (S2) and 1.2829 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.60970 / 1.60977
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6198 | 1.6161 | 1.6127
1.6067 | 1.6034 | 1.6000
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Instrument continued its weakening on the hourly chart and our indicators clearly state downtrend formation on the short term perspective however in such situation market focus on Bank of England Rate Decision at 11:00 GMT. Main scenario: Price might retest our support at 1.6067 (S1) on the downside. Break here would suggest next target at 1.6034 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting to 1.6000 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our next resistance stay at 1.6127 (R1), break here is required for market expansion towards to next targets at 1.6161 (R2) and 1.6198 (R3).
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USDJPY : 78.616 / 78.618
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.04 | 78.87 | 78.71
78.42 | 78.25 | 78.07
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Technically, USDJPY in uptrend formation and both moving averages acts now as dynamic support level. Fresh high, formed today is our key level for the further uptrend development. Main scenario: Next resistance ahead at 78.71 (R1), break here is required to open way for further appreciation towards to targets at 78.87 (R2) and 79.04 (R3). Alternative scenario: Price decline below the next support levels at 78.42 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable next target at 78.25 (S2). A break below it would suggest last target for today at 78.07 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Calculator | ECN Forex Training | Forex Demo Account | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 05 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 05 2012
ECB waits for Spain to act; bailout to come over the next month - Standard Chartered
The ECB looks set to keep rates on hold in November too, according to Standard Chartered European Economists Sarah Hewin and Thomas Costerg, while expecting recession "will trigger a cut by year-end" they note. Details on the new bond-buying plan remain thin, "but the ECB is likely to be tough on conditionality" the bank suspects. As per the timing abou the Spanish bailout, Standard Chartered thinks "they will need to ask for support over the next month, despite German reluctance."
"The ECB left its Refi rate unchanged in line with expectations, although market reaction does suggest there were at least some hopes for a rate cut today", says Vassili Serebriakov, Currency Strategist, Wells Fargo Bank. "With the ECB decision out of the way, markets will be looking ahead to US September nonfarm payrolls report", he says. "Judging from recent US data, the jobs numbers should not be particularly weak, which in our view could play into further gains in risk-sensitive commodity and emerging currencies".
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-05 07:00 GMT | Switzerland. Foreign Currency Reserves
2012-10-05 10:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders senectus
2012-10-05 12:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls
2012-10-05 19:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Credit Change
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-05 05:02 GMT | EUR/USD bulls regain upper-hand ahead of NFP fireworks
2012-10-05 03:40 GMT | USD/JPY drops to session lows post-BoJ
2012-10-05 03:14 GMT | BoJ Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged at 0.1%
2012-10-05 02:07 GMT | EUR/AUD stalling below 1.2720
EURUSD : 1.30154 / 1.30158
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3098 | 1.3065 | 1.3032
1.2998 | 1.2962 | 1.2926
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Bullish market sentiment remains in power today after the appreciation provided yesterday. United States Nonfarm Payrolls would be the main macroeconomic data release at 12:30 GMT. Main scenario: Brake above the resistance at 1.3032 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.3065 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited to 1.3098 (R3). Alternative scenario: Break below the support at 1.2998 (S1) might provide necessary space for retracement development. We suggest next target at 1.2962 (S2) and 1.2926 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.61941 / 1.61945
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6289 | 1.6246 | 1.6204
1.6165 | 1.6123 | 1.6079
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: At the moment GBPUSD deviate from its up-trend formation and such stabilization might extend its power to the London session ahead. Stochastic Oscillator is pointing up and both moving averages are bullish, so far we expect further strengthening as main scenario later on today. Main scenario: Next resistance is maintained at 1.6204 (R1), break here might open space for a move to test targets at 1.6246 (R2) and 1.6289 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Decrease below the support at 1.6165 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6123 (S2) and 1.6079 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.391 / 78.395
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.04 | 78.80 | 78.58
78.25 | 78.02 | 77.79
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market trapped to the range trading mode after the yesterday gains. Medium term bias is positive and we expect to see retest of yesterday high today. However if the market depreciate below the support level we expect a correction development. Main scenario: Next resistance level lie at 78.58 (R1). Break here is required to enable targets at 78.80 (R2) and 79.04 (R3). Alternative scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 78.25 (S1). Price progress below it might expose next targets at 78.02 (S2) and 77.79 (S3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Blog | Forex Market Hours | ECN Automated Forex Trading] | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 08 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 08 2012
HSBC Services PMI at 54.3 signals improvement
According to Markit Economics, the HSBC Composite PMI (covering manufacturing and services PMI) signaled a renewed expansion in business activity at 54.3 in September, up from 52.0; below 50.0 signals contraction, while above signals industry expansion.
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:“Service sector growth picked up in September thanks to rising new business flows. This is likely an indication of a gradual improvement of domestic economic conditions due to the earlier easing measures and the stronger consumption demand in the run-up to the Golden week holiday.”
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-08 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Consumer Price Index
2012-10-08 10:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production
2012-10-08 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Electronic Card Retail Sales
2012-10-08 23:45 GMT | Japan. Trade Balance - BOP Basis
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-08 04:44 GMT | EUR/USD weekly start below 1.30
2012-10-08 03:52 GMT | AUD/JPY again below 80 round
2012-10-08 03:25 GMT | EUR/JPY dive stalls around 102 round
2012-10-08 01:22 GMT | USD/JPY limited below 100 DMA
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EURUSD : 1.29880 / 1.29885
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3070 | 1.3042 | 1.3013
1.2968 | 1.2942 | 1.2915
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Currently EURUSD trades on the negative side and we expect further consolidation development later on today as main scenario. However medium term tendency remains positive. Main scenario: Next upcoming support holds at 1.2968 (S1), break through here might take the pair towards to eventual targets located at 1.2942 (S2) and 1.2915 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Price level at 1.3013 (R1) is a next attractive point for the uptrend penetration. If a break occur here we suggest gradual targets to be placed at 1.3042 (R2) and 1.3070 (R3).
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GBPUSD : 1.61085 / 1.61089
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6174 | 1.6153 | 1.6131
1.6094 | 1.6075 | 1.6053
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Instrument has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe. We expect gradual decline towards to our support levels as main scenario today. Main scenario: If the market manage to brake next support level at 1.6094 (S1), we might exposure of possible targets at 1.6075 (S2) and 1.6053 (S3) later on today. Alternative scenario: Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.6131 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.6153 (R2) and 1.6174 (R3) in potential
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USDJPY : 78.538 / 78.541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.96 | 78.81 | 78.64
78.42 | 78.26 | 78.10
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today and current range mode condition might extend its power for the remaining of the day. Main scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 78.64 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 78.81 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect a further rise towards to 78.96 (R3). Alternative scenario: Our next support level stay at 78.42 (S1). Loss here might drive market price towards to next targets at 78.26 (S2) and 78.10 (S3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Strategy | ECN Forex Trading Systems | Forex Exchange Rates | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 09 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 09 2012
IMF cuts global GDPs forecast, dowside risks worsen
The IMF has lowered the euro zone GDP outlook for 2012 by -0.1% to -0.4% from -0.3%, while setting a +0.2% in 2013 from +0.7%. Progress toward banking, fiscal union is required for rosier revisions. ECB could cut rates further, the institution says. Japan 2012 growth forecast was also cut to 2.2% from 2.4%, 2013 stands now at 1.2% from 1.5%. The BOJ easing program may help its GDP target, although more is needed to reach 1% inflation goal. China 2012 growth forecast was downgraded to 7.8% from 8.0%, 2013 forecast at 8.2% from 8.5%. On the US front, IMF said “imperative” to avoid year-end fiscal cliff, as it could reduce 4% of GDP in 2013 in the worst case scenario. U.S., Canadian economies GDPs are projected at around 2% in 2012 and 2013, but both face large downside risks. Cuts 2012 global GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% in July and 2013 forecast to 3.6% from 3.9%. “General feeling of uncertainty” holding back global growth.
The UK is the focus of the day ahead, "with the August snapshot of industrial- and manufacturing sector output on offer as well as foreign trade data for the same month" Rabobank notes. The bank adds: "A small fall in industrial output is expected but after a pretty strong July reading, the sector is tracking to grow output in 3Q as a whole." The NIESR, a UK Think Tank, will also release their estimate of 3Q GDP growth.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
Tentative ECOFIN Meetings
2012-10-09 07:30 GMT | ECB President Draghi Speaks
2012-10-09 08:30 GMT | Manufacturing Production
2012-10-09 14:00 GMT | NIESR GDP Estimate
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-09 05:00 GMT | GBP/USD consolidating ahead of UK data
2012-10-09 03:58 GMT | EUR/USD still below 1.30
2012-10-09 03:56 GMT | Will GBP/JPY’s sell-off extend?
2012-10-09 00:39 GMT | AUD/USD breaks Monday's high, descending trendline
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EURUSD 1.29813 / 1.29817
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3049 | 1.3024 | 1.2999
1.2968 | 1.2942 | 1.2917
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Yesterday pair gained momentum on the downside and close on the negative territory however medium term bias remains positive for EURUSD. Main scenario: Pair is moving towards to our next resistance level at 1.2999 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3024 (R2) and 1.3049 (R3). Alternative scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited by next support level at 1.2968 (S1), break here might lead to the targets execution at 1.2942 (S2) and 1.2917 (S3).
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GBPUSD 1.60419 / 1.60426
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6127 | 1.6096 | 1.6066
1.6019 | 1.5990 | 1.5961
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market sentiment is negative on GBPUSD as of yesterday sharp fall. We expect to see new lows formation today. Main scenario: Decline below the support level at 1.6019 (S1) would suggest next target at 1.5990 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.5961 (S3). Alternative scenario: If the price manages to stay above the suggested support at 1.6019 (S1), we expect attack to the resistance level at 1.6066 (R1). Clearance here is required for the instrument strengthening towards to our targets at 1.6096 (R2) and 1.6127 (R3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 78.404 / 78.406
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.76 | 78.62 | 78.48
78.28 | 78.14 | 78.00
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: USDJPY still is under the bullish pressure on the medium term perspective. Though, possibility of further market decline is high today. Main scenario: Next support level stays at 78.28 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 78.14 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 78.00 (S3). Alternative scenario: A medium-term bias is negative now though intraday bullish forces might be activated if the pair penetrates above the resistance level at 78.48 (R1). Next immediate resistance levels holds at 78.62 (R2) and 78.76 (R3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Indicators | Learn Forex | Trade Forex | FXCC )