Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC - page 24
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Daily Forex Market by FXCC 30Mai2012
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 30Mai2012
Euro breaks below 1.25 on Spanish downgrade
Equities traded higher today, with US and Canadian markets rallying on news that China might undertake meaningful fiscal stimulus. While industrial metals stocks rallied with the base metals complex, gold stocks fell by 2.4% and gold fell 1.7%. Industrial companies led the way in the US, with the Industrial Engineering subsector appreciating 1.9% while the S&P 500 was up by 0.87%. In short, the ‘China trade’ was in full swing today at least as far as equity markets in Canada and the US was concerned.
While stocks were up, the US dollar was not down: the US dollar index is now trading at its highest level since last September. The Euro broke below the 1.25 EURUSD level mid-day and stayed there for most of the afternoon before rallying back to the 1.25 level at the close. EURUSD continues to make new intraday lows for 2012.
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/30052012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-05-30 08:30 GMT | UK - Consumer Credit (Apr)
2012-05-30 08:30 GMT | UK - Mortgage Approvals (Apr)
2012-05-30 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union - Consumer Confidence
2012-05-30 14:00 GMT | US - Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-05-30 01:39 GMT | Australia: s.a. Retail Sales fall 0.2% in April
2012-05-30 01:33 GMT | Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) -0.2% in Apr
2012-05-30 01:01 GMT | EUR/USD threatening to break lower
2012-05-30 00:06 GMT | USD/JPY sits around 79.50 amid BoJ headlines
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EURUSD : 1.24581 / 1.24586
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2620 | 1.2590 | 1.2539
1.2483 | 1.2458 | 1.2386
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The EUR trading pattern appears to be repeating itself day after day. The middle chart suggests that EUR rallies during the Asian session and into the early European session, but then fails and trends lower to close both the European and North American sessions lower than the open. This suggest some buying in, but a shift In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 1.2495/83 and then at 1.2386. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 10DMA line at 1.2539, 1.2590 and then at 1.2620. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and steady; MACD is negative and holding, while CCI has crossed down the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all light short signals.
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GBPUSD : 1.55832 / 1.55844
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5805 | 1.5746 | 1.5676
1.5605 | 1.5553 | 1.5497
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The GBP will target the 1.5805 level, low with a violation allowing for more weakness towards the 1.5642/53 levels. A breach of this if seen will aim at the 1.5497 level. RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario is for the pair to halt its weakness and then return above its trendline. This will target the 1.6180. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure having violated its rising trendline.
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USDJPY : 79.333 / 79.337
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.96 | 80.57 | 80.00
79.32 | 78.86 | 78.33
SUMMARY : UP
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The market is making lower highs, and higher lows, reflecting a slowing of volatility. The RSI has resorted to the 40-60 range, reflecting consolidation momentum. Also the moving averages are converging together suggesting that the market has been clueless in which direction to take in the 1H time-frame. Giving us the classic congestion breakout, which doesn't always translate into a strong directional clue, but in the short-term, we can be seeing some growth of volatility after the convergence and retest of consolidation highs or low. To the topside, the 80-80.10 area is the very short-term resistance, while the 79.00 area is the support. We are trading in the middle near 79.50.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 31Mai2012
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 31Mai2012
Spain becoming a major financial problem
News out of Europe was highly confusing. One day after unnamed European officials were quoted in the financial press officially denying the possibility that collective European funds would be used to bail out Spanish banks, the European Commission publicly “envisaged” the possibility of a European banking union and direct capital injections into troubled European lenders. Rather than giving markets cause to believe that rescue is imminent, the entire episode points to the reality, seriousness, and immediacy of the problems confronting the European economy – something which markets shrugged off during Q1 2012. Markets may have spent most of the first part of this year weighing whether US jobs were growing at a pace of 200k or 250k per month and whether the S&P 500 should trade above or below the 1400 level, but the focus is now on more ominous issues: the financial crisis in Spain and the cooling of the economy in China, with a healthy dose of concern that a left-wing Greek government might hit the ‘euro exit’ panic button.
Unsurprisingly, on a day during which cash was king, the USD outperformed. EURUSD closed at 1.237 after convincingly breaking through the 1.25 level yesterday. The commodity currencies followed suit, with CAD losing ground and USDCAD closing the day at 1.03.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-05-31 09:00 | European Monetary Union - Consumer Price Index
2012-05-31 12:15 | US - ADP Employment Change
2012-05-31 12:30 | CAD - Current Account
2012-05-3112:30 | US - Gross Domestic Product Annualized
FOREX NEWS :
2012-05-31 06:20 GMT | EUR/USD retreats from highs, failed to breach 1.2400
2012-05-31 06:19 GMT | Germany: Retail Sales rise 0.6% in April
2012-05-31 06:13 GMT | Asian markets followed western fall
2012-05-31 06:03 GMT | Germany Apr Retail Sales (YoY) falls 3.8%
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EURUSD : 1.23942 / 1.23946
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2573 | 1.2528 | 1.2449
1.2325 | 1.2280 | 1.2201
SUMMARY : Oversold
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The next major EUR support level is 1.2152, followed by the 2010 low of 1.1877. The market is notably one sided and shorts are at extreme levels, opening up the risk of short covering on any hint of an official response; however the bias remains to the downside, and accordingly we expect a temporary test of 1.2152. Technical indicators remain bearish, with major signals still in sell territory even as RSI enters oversold.
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GBPUSD : 1.54878 / 1.54888
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5743 | 1.5684 | 1.5579
1.5415 | 1.5356 | 1.5251
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals are bearish, with major signals still in sell territory; next level is 1.5235. The near‐term risk for GBP is a test down through the psychological 1.55, followed by a move to the ytd low of 1.5235. However, once risk aversion passes, the outlook for GBPUSD is relatively positive, partially on the flows generated from its Triple‐A rating. Supports are seen at 1.5531/17 and then at 1.5415. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 10-DMA line at 1.5713/35 and then at 1.5850.
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USDJPY 78.837 / 78.839
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.04 | 79.77 | 79.25
78.47 | 78.19 | 77.68
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Neutral
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
As risk aversion rises on the back of an escalation in the European crisis, USDJPY continues to trend lower, testing the psychologically important 79.00 level. Technicals are bearish but are beginning to become mixed, but trend is lower. Supports eyed at 78.56, which is the 200-DMA line. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 79.16/36 and then at the 21-DMA line at 79.72.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 01Jun2012
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 01Jun2012
Spain contradicts the ECB, the EU, and the IMF
Equity markets in North America were mixed today with US equities flat while Canadian equities came in moderately positively (+0.72%). The catalyst in Canada was strong bank earnings: Canadian financial companies posted strong earnings over the past week and the sector rebounded accordingly today. Canadian financials were up by 1.55% (banks by 1.9%) while US financials were up by a more modest 0.85% (banks by 1.4%). Oil and Gas stocks held up moderately well in Canada (+0.11%) considering that WTI for delivery in July sold off by 1.4% and is currently trading at US$86.58/bbl.
Europe is clearly taking center stage at the moment, with headline like the FT website’s banner “Spain Reveals €100bn Capital Flight” garnering deserved attention (the details of the Banco De Espana study cited by the FT are slightly less bad: the capital flight occurred during Q1. But that leaves open the question ‘how much capital fled in Q2?’). With Europe gaining so much media space, we thought it might be worth turning the reader’s attention to data released in the US today which might have been overlooked – which were unfortunately rather bleak.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-01 07:58 GMT | EU - Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
2012-06-01 08:28 GMT | UK - Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
2012-06-01 09:00 GMT | EU - Unemployment Rate
2012-06-01 12:30 GMT | US - Nonfarm Payrolls
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-01 05:49 GMT | EUR/USD flat, eyes on EU PMI
2012-06-01 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD inches back to down, focus on BoE
2012-06-01 04:27 GMT | EUR/USD below 1.2350 ahead of Irish vote count
2012-06-01 03:58 GMT | No longer favouring USD/JPY longs - Standard Chartered
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EURUSD : 1.23517 / 1.23521
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2513 | 1.2471 | 1.2407
1.2301 | 1.2259 | 1.2195
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
EUR is oversold (RSI = 23) and the market is extremely one sided, leaving the currency vulnerable to short covering. Still the downward trend is strong (not to mention expensive to fight) and accordingly trading with the trend is likely the only near‐term alternative. Technical indicators are bearish, major signals still in sell territory and downward trend strong. Ignore RSI. Supports are seen at the 21-DMA lower Bollinger level at 1.2305 and then at 1.2190. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.2460, 1.2572 which is the 10-DMA line.
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GBPUSD : 1.53864 / 1.53873
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5647 | 1.5587 | 1.5481
1.5315 | 1.5255 | 1.5149
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Signals continue to be bearish, major signals in sell territory; a close above 1.5641 would be a warning. Supports are seen at 1.5419/15 and then at 1.5327. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5637 and then at 1.5671 which is the 10-DMA line.
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USDJPY : 78.449 / 78.453
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.509 | 79.207 | 78.810
78.113 | 77.811 | 77.415
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY continues to trend lower, data was mixed and even with USDJPY below 79.00, the BoJ and MoF appear to only be watching; however support at the 200‐day 78.63 looms. Technicals all read bearish, major signals in sell territory and strong downward trend. The USD trended lower throughout the session and fell below the key 200-DMA line at 78.63. In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 78.30/18, while resistance levels are noted at 79.13, then at the 10-DMA line at .79.38
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 04Jun2012
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 04Jun2012
Asian markets fall on worries of the EU
In the week ahead, the global markets will continue to gyrate between fear of Greece’s fallout from the Euro zone and hopes of austerity measures that may revive the global markets. The European Union is targeting July 9 as the start date for its permanent eurozone rescue fund, the €500 bn (USD620 bn) European Stability Mechanism. Parliaments across the 17-nation currency union must ratify the fund before it becomes available to counter the financial crisis spawned in Greece.
Until it receives 90% of its expected capital allotment, officials must turn to the temporary European Financial Stability Facility, a €440 bn fund with €240 bn available. Even Italy might be seen pressurizing the ECB to print more Euros so that Italy can also be saved. So we think these measures will be following suit that will eventually decide the fate of the markets in the times to come.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-04 07:00 GMT : UK - Halifax House Prices
2012-06-04 08:30 GMT : EMU - Sentix Investor Confidence
2012-06-04 09:00 GMT : EMU - Producer Price Index
2012-06-04 14:00 GMT : US - Factory Orders
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-04 01:45 GMT : US Dollar rules as HK tracks risk off sentiment
2012-06-04 01:32 GMT : Australia May ANZ Job Advertisements -2.4%
2012-06-04 00:16 GMT : USD/JPY spikes; Threat of BoJ intervention
2012-06-03 23:50 GMT : Japan: Monetary Base (YoY) (May): 2.4%
EURUSD : 1.24134 / 1.24140
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2496 | 1.2470 | 1.2437
1.2378 | 1.2352 | 1.2319
SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The EURUSD has dropped to its lowest level since July 2010. Interestingly, the low today is within pips of the 2008 (October) low. The sharp moderation warns that the EURUSD could consolidate or bounce modestly in the coming days, but the overall trend remains clear in our opinion and we favor continued declines until sentiment sees a more significant shift. The next support isn’t until 12150. Resistance is now around 125.00 although the breakdown level (January low) of 126.22 (and this week’s high) would be ideal to short into if reached.
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GBPUSD : 1.53699 / 1.53710
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5418 | 1.5397 | 1.5383
1.5348 | 1.5327 | 1.5313
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The market is heavily oversold, so some kind of a recovery may be expected early this week. If such a recovery indeed takes place, we may see gains to 1.5680 levels. Such a rally will likely be favored as selling opportunities by the big players, because the daily trend is down. On the downside, firm break below 1.5260/30 may bring a panic sell-off all the way down to 1.50000. There was no bounce of course (the GBPUSD didn’t even reach its 10 day average) and the GBPUSD took out nearly all of 2012’s gains in May and has reached the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2010 lows so we could get a bounce from these levels. If so, then resistance is 15530. A bounce into there would be a candidate to short against 15720.
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USDJPY 78.182 / 78.183
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.715 | 78.555 | 78.350
78.005 | 77.805 | 77.615
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The USDJPY continues to slip and has reached the much discussed 7830 (resistance throughout late 2011). There is nothing to suggest that a low is in place right now and the next level of support is 7780. I’d be willing to try longs on a test and rebound from that level with an initial stop (plan on moving it up) below 7600. The chart shows trending conditions are quite negative here. The prices have not overcome the 83.80 level yet on a sustained basis and remain below the declining 100-week moving average. So, the main focus should be considered on the downside. Look for a possible move down from the 2007 top and if that's the case, the current pullback should hold above the 76.00 level. A subsequent move above 83.80 will turn the hourly chart quite bullish.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 05Jun2012
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 05Jun2012
G7 calls for an emergency conference call to discuss the EU crisis
The Queens Jubilee finds UK markets closed for a four day holiday, rumors of a master plan for Europe and significant central bank risk with ECB, BoE, BoC and testimony by Chair Bernanke later this week are the themes that are driving markets. Friday’s rally in gold speaks volumes about how the weak US employment report has triggered expectations for the Fed to announce QE3. On Monday the USD weakened as the euro climbed. It was a day thin on eco data and the news flow was light also. The main events were Spain, Italy and Greece. S&P made book on a Greek exit them a 1-3 chance of leaving the euro.
The G7 Finance Ministers have agreed to hold an emergency conference call to discuss the eurozone crisis, in particular Spain. The EU leadership seems to be drawing lines in the sand, as Merkel refuses to accept eurobonds or joint debt without fiscal control. There will be a battle brewing here. In a surprise move a director from the PBOC said that China would assist in buying euro debt to help ease the crisis.
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05062012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-05 07:58 GMT : EMU - Purchasing Manager Index Services
2012-06-05 09:00 GMT : EMU - Retail Sales
2012-06-05 10:00 GMT : Germany - Factory Orders
2012-06-05 14:00 GMT : US - ISM Non-Manufacturing
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-05 04:37 GMT : RBA slashes rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%
2012-06-05 02:30 GMT : China HSBC China Services PMI 54.7 in May
2012-06-05 01:31 GMT : Australia Current Account Balance -14.9B in 1Q
2012-06-05 01:25 GMT : USD/JPY dips towards 78.00 well supported
EURUSD : 1.25226 / 1.25228
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2719 | 1.2630 | 1.2576
1.2433 | 1.2344 | 1.2290
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Signals are mixed, struggling to make a bullish turn, significant resistance lies at 1.2500. EUR/USD It has an intraday support at 1.2410 and resistance at 1.2530. Daily indicators are all showing red/sell. MA short terms read buy but longer term give sell signals. RSI and Stochastic as well as MACD are sell with StochRSI showing overbought. Technicals are all giving mixed signals.
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GBPUSD : 1.53946 / 1.53955
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5478 | 1.5447 | 1.5419
1.5360 | 1.5329 | 1.5301
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals remain bearish ‐ RSI off sub‐20 low suggests potential for pause; Jan 2012 low is at 1.5235. GBP/USD can give a rise up to 1.5405 thus traders can buy on dips but overall selling on rise is recommended for the day. It has a good support at 1.5250 and resistance at 1.5465. Expected intraday range is 1.5260 - 1.5405.
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USDJPY : 78.423 / 78.427
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.950 | 78.682 | 78.505
78.065 | 77.803 | 77.625
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Watch for the USDJPY to grind even lower toward its last support areas just above 78.00, but important support is already slightly above these levels at the 200-day moving average around 78.60 and the chart is also showing so-called “triple divergence”, in which a third new low has been set while a momentum indicator like the MACD continues to creep higher at each new low. This suggests a consolidation could be in order in the nearest term.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 07Jun2012
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 07Jun2012
US Fed Beige Book shows “moderate” recovery
Globally, US markets and major European markets closed sharply higher amid optimism about further stimulus from the world's central banks. The optimism came from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to leave interest rates unchanged as expected and following the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate cut on Tuesday. Further, ECB president also stated that the central bank stands ready to act if the economic situation continues to worsen. The sentiments were boosted further following the release of the Fed's Beige Book report, which said overall economic activity expanded at a moderate pace during the reporting period from early April to late May.
Yesterday, the US Fed presented the Beige Book report, which reviews the overall US economy the report showed that the U.S. economy has continued to grow at a “moderate” pace over the past two months, with only one district reporting slower growth, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its latest reading of economic conditions. The Fed has used the phrase “moderate” in one way or another to describe the economy in every Beige Book report since last fall.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-07 08:28 GMT : UK - Purchasing Manager Index Services
2012-06-07 11:00 GMT : UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
2012-06-07 11:00 GMT : US - Initial Jobless Claims
2012-06-07 14:00 GMT : US - Fed's Bernanke testifies
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-07 04:13 GMT : EUR/USD quiet below 1.2600 ahead FED Bernanke testifies
2012-06-07 03:49 GMT : GBP/USD consolidating below 1.55 ahead of MPC
2012-06-07 02:04 GMT : Aussie powers up after surprising jobs data
2012-06-07 01:31 GMT : Australia May Employment Change s.a. 38.9K
EURUSD : 1.25638 / 1.25642
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2760 | 1.2673 | 1.2618
1.2475 | 1.2387 | 1.2332
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The euro has dropped from its short term 76.4 Fib level at 1.2546 and looking a bit overstretched short term but medium-term charts have turned bullish. Buyers will hold longs unless a break below 1.2400 occurs. Only then will there be another assault on the downside with 1.2350 once more coming under pressure. There is quite a lot of resistance on the topside at 1.2523/25 to 1.2545 but the medium-term charts are poised for a break above 1.2550 and move into a market rally looking at 1.2620.
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GBPUSD : 1.54741 / 1.54750
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5574 | 1.5528 | 1.5495
1.5452 | 1.5425 | 1.5365
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
At present the fib level is at 1.5438 and looking a little overextended on the topside of the 60-minute charts. Therefore look for the market to find a short-term top here. However, if it fails we may see 1.5460 through to 1.5495 as the next challenge. Medium-term charts remain neutral-to-oversold.
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USDJPY : 79.402 / 79.407
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.189 | 79.727 | 79.470
78.959 | 78.665 | 78.344
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The pair is aiming to 79.470. Once this level is broken the pair will rise to 79.707. Currently the pair is at 0.79.35 a breakdown here, look for the retracement to the 0.382 Fibonacci at 78.66. Our upside target is the -0.270 Fibonacci extension at 79.72 but look for strong resistance at 79.707
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 08Jun2012
Daily Forex Market by FXCC 08Jun2012
This has been a busy week for central Banks around the Globe
The US markets ended mixed on Thursday after seeing early strength. The initial strength on Wall Street was partly on account of a positive reaction to news of a surprise interest rate cut by China's central bank. The markets also benefited from the release of a report showing a decline in initial jobless claims in the week ended June 2. However, stocks pulled back well off their highs as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke began to testify before the Joint Economic Committee in Washington. While the Dow increased by 46.2 points or 0.4% to 12,461.0, the Nasdaq fell 13.7 points or 0.5% to 2,831.0 and the S&P 500 edged down 0.1 points to 1,315.0 Bernanke says Federal Reserve stands ready to act to protect the financial system and economy in the event that financial stresses from the European crisis escalate. However, the testimony to congress didn’t contain explicit cues about whether further easing is coming soon.
Spain sells € 2.07 bn of bonds; tops target Spain saw borrowing costs rose (at an average yield 6.04% up from 5.74% in previous sale) in a closely-watched 10-yr debt auction, selling a total of € 2.07bn. Spain's Treasury had aimed to sell a total of € 1 bn to €2 bn of debt. Initial weekly U.S. jobless claims fell to 377,000 The no. of initial applicants filing for unemployment benefits declined in the week ended June 2, but jobless claims remained at a level consistent with mediocre hiring trends. First-time claims fell by 12,000 to 377K from a revised claim of 389K. China’s PBOC cuts interest rates by 25bps China's central bank lowered its benchmark loan and deposit rates by 25bps each to 6.31% and 3.25% respectively and moved to allow rates to float more freely, in a bid to support economic growth.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-08 08:30 GMT | UK - Producer Price Index
2012-06-08 12:15 GMT | CANADA - Housing Starts
2012-06-08 12:30 GMT | US - Trade Balance
2012-06-08 12:30 GMT | CANADA - Unemployment Rate
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-08 02:41 GMT | EUR/USD at session lows as risk tolerance contracts
2012-06-08 01:39 GMT | AUD/USD breaks 0.9850 after Aus trade balance
2012-06-08 01:36 GMT | Australia: Trade deficit at $203m in April
2012-06-08 00:00 GMT | Japan: Economy grew stronger than expected in Q1
EURUSD : 1.24950 / 1.24956
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2707 | 1.2667 | 1.2594
1.2481 | 1.2441 | 1.2368
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The pair has retreated from the 1.2620 area. The 1.2540 level will be a key pivot, below the trendline near 1.25. A break below 1.25 will suggest completion of a consolidation pattern, which could be seen as a flag. The break below can open up June’s low in the 1.2285-1.23 area. Failure to break below 1.2540 followed by a push back above the pre-Bernanke high at 1.2620 opens up the 1.2820 level. This is the 200-SMA in the 4H chart and also a resistance pivot from May 22.
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GBPUSD : 1.54644 / 1.54653
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5753 | 1.5677 | 1.5583
1.5413 | 1.5337 | 1.5243
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 1.5430/16 and then at 1.5375. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5608/37 and then at 1.5664. The pair continued consolidating around 76.4% Fibonacci while Stochastic remained positive suggesting further upside actions. A break above 1.5515 will confirm and accelerate the bullish scenario mainly targeting 61.8% level. Only a break below 1.5360 will negate and give a reason for pause.
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USDJPY : 79.190 / 79.193
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.220 | 80.000 | 79.640
79.080 | 78.875 | 78.520
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The trading range for today is among key support at 77.60 and key resistance now at 80.00. The general trend over short-term basis is to the upside targeting 81.45 as far as areas of 77.20 remain intact. The pair has successfully broken out of the falling channel since March and there is a possibility of a reversal in trend taking shape with more upside to come. It is still a little early to be sure but if the price action today closes above the channel then this could constitute a valid break-out and indicate a continuation of the rally higher, with 50 and 100 day MA's at 80.15 targeted initially and possibly 80.75 thereafter.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 12 2012
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 12 2012
Risk Aversion returns as Spanish elation subsides
US stock advanced, following the biggest weekly rally in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index this year, as investors speculated that the bailout of Spain's banks will help ease the euro area's debt crisis.European stocks surged to a four- week high after Spain sought as much as €100bn to save its banking system and Chinese export data topped forecasts. The €100bn rescue for Spain's banks moved Italy to the frontline of Europe's debt crisis as an initial rally in the country's bonds fizzled on concern it may be the next to succumb. Investors holding bonds issued by Spain and its banks will probably rank behind official creditors in the queue for payment after the nation asked for a bailout of as much as €100 bn.
Asian equities extended the global rally after Chinese data showed exports grew last month at more than double the pace economists estimated. Overseas shipments climbed 15.3% from a year earlier, the customs bureau said yesterday, exceeding all 29 estimates. Japanese stocks rose, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) capping the biggest gain since April, on speculation a bailout for Spanish banks will ease Europe's debt crisis and after China's trade grew more than expected.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-12 08:30 GMT | UK - Industrial Production
2012-06-12 08:30 GMT | UK - Manufacturing Production
2012-06-12 12:30 GMT | US - Import & Export Price Index
2012-06-12 18:00 GMT | US - Monthly Budget Statement
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-12 04:04 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates below 1.5500
2012-06-12 03:39 GMT | USD/JPY spikes to new daily highs
2012-06-12 03:39 GMT | EUR/AUD glued around the 1.2600 line
2012-06-12 01:39 GMT | Australia: Business Confidence declines sharply in May
EURUSD : 1.24927 / 1.24933
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2811 | 1.2730 | 1.2613
1.2415 | 1.2334 | 1.2217
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's are mixed, MACD in buy territory, but most others in sell; a close above the 21‐day MA at 1.2584 would be bullish. However EUR risk is increasingly binary. Supports are seen at the 10-DMA line at 1.2488 and then at 1.2435. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.2554, 1.2690 and then at 1.2820.
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GBPUSD : 1.54905 / 1.54915
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5685 | 1.5634 | 1.5563
1.5441 | 1.5390 | 1.5319
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's remain mixed but biased to downside, today’s rally faded quickly and failed to break above last week’s high of 1.5601. Support lies at the recent low of 1.5269, a retest is likely. Supports are seen at the 10-DMA line at 1.5467 and then at 1.5375. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5538 and then at 1.5601.
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USDJPY : 79.491 / 79.495
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.240 | 79.962 | 79.715
79.190 | 78.910 | 78.665
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
JPY is currently trading at 79.29 levels. After falling against US dollar for last four sessions, Yen is again strengthening against its peers, as the market is expecting Italy to be the next country on the forefront of the debt crisis after Spain. This boosted the demand for the safe haven currency. Overall technical's are reading bearish ‐ the 50‐day has crossed below the 100‐day (80.20 and 80.21, respectively) generating a medium term sell signal; while most other indicators are in sell territory
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 13 2012
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 13 2012
More Downgrades by Fitch as Spanish Bonds Soar
US stocks rose on speculation policy makers will do more to stimulate the economy. Commodities dropped for a fourth day and Spanish bonds fell. The advance in US stocks indicated the S&P 500 will rebound following last few days' biggest decline in more than a week. The Fed is scheduled to meet next week and announce its rate decision on June 20. European stocks rose for the first time in three days on speculation that the Federal Reserve will opt for more stimuli and as Lafarge SA targeted cost savings. Italy plans to auction at least €9.5bn of debt this week, while an election on June 17 may determine whether Greece remains in the euro.
Spanish bonds slumped for a second day after a European rescue of its banks was announced and Fitch Ratings said the government will miss its budget-deficit targets, casting doubt on Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's plan to stabilize the economy. Japanese stocks fell as surging bond yields stoked concern a bailout of Spain's banks won't ease Europe's debt crisis. Shares pared losses as the yen halted gains after the International Monetary Fund said the currency is overvalued and urged further monetary easing.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-13 09:00 GMT | EMU - Industrial Production
2012-06-13 12:30 GMT | US - Producer Price Index
2012-06-13 12:30 GMT | US - Retail Sales
2012-06-13 12:30 GMT | US - Business Inventories
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-13 04:28 GMT | EUR/USD a tricky day below 1.2500
2012-06-13 04:13 GMT | GBP/USD bracketed between 1.5540/1.5580
2012-06-13 02:50 GMT | NZD/USD gently offered after touching 4-wk high
2012-06-13 02:48 GMT | EUR/NZD breaks below 1.6100 and prints a 7-week low
EURUSD : 1.24888 / 1.24893
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2623 | 1.2576 | 1.2537
1.2451 | 1.2404 | 1.2365
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Today's technical's are mixed, MACD in buy territory, but others in sell; EUR risk is increasingly binary. Supports are seen at 1.2435, 1.2375 and then at 1.2310. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 21DMA line at 1.2562 and then at 1.2672.
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GBPUSD : 1.55468 / 1.55471
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5743 | 1.5666 | 1.5609
1.5475 | 1.5398 | 1.5341
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's are mixed and rangy, it could break out in either direction. However, given the overall bearish trend a break below 1.5445 might be confirmation of a downside breakout to 1.5325. Meanwhile a break higher might be confirmed by a rally above 1.5582 targeting 1.5675. The pair will find supports at the 10DMA line at 1.5443 and then at 1.5404. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5582, 1.5601 and then at the 21DMA line at 1.5614. Better risk/reward elsewhere.
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USDJPY 79.659 / 79.665
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.115 | 79.905 | 79.775
79.440 | 79.230 | 79.100
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The 50‐day MA has crossed below the 100‐day (80.14 and 80.23, respectively),which is typically a medium term sell signal. However, if risk aversion is beginning to abate, which increasingly it appears to be doing, then the outlook for USDJPY will shift higher. Currently it has reached near the highs at 79.50. It may have completed its move higher and be on the way back down to the bottom of the range at 79.20. There is the possibility of a breakout after the consolidation move has completed. The pair has already broken out of a descending channel on the daily chart and further upside is possible despite waning momentum, with 80.20 targeted higher.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 14 2012
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 14 2012
Greek Elections coming soon, Spain downgraded three notches
A day after global rating agency S&P cautioned India could lose its investment-grade credit rating due to political inaction. Data yesterday showed industrial expansion in April had barely managed to be in the positive zone, growing just 0.1% in the first month of the financial year, despite a not-so-high base of 5.3% growth in April 2011. In March, industrial output had contracted 3.15% US stocks dropped, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index already pared Tuesday’s rally, as investors await a got bearish on report that showed retail sales declined last month. The S&P 500 has dropped 6.7% from this year’s high on April 2 as Greece’s political parties failed to form a government, increasing the likelihood the nation won’t meet its debt obligations and forcing it to leave the Euro area.
Spain and Italy appealed to European policy makers to step up their response to the financial crisis after a €100bn (USD125bn) lifeline for Spanish banks failed to calm markets. European stocks declined as borrowing costs increased at debt auctions by Germany and Italy and as investors awaited a report on American retail sales. Merkel is stepping up her calls for closer “fiscal union” in Europe to tackle the debt crisis at its roots. Greek elections in four days threaten to herald the first expulsion of a country from the 17-nation currency union. China’s stocks rose, driving the benchmark index to its biggest gain in a month, on speculation the government will ease monetary policy and increase spending for infrastructure to stem the slowdown in the economy.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-14 08:00 GMT | EMU - ECB Monthly Report
2012-06-14 09:00 GMT | EMU - Consumer Price Index
2012-06-14 13:00 GMT | US - Consumer Price Index
2012-06-14 20:00 GMT | UK - BoE's Governor King Speech
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-14 04:39 GMT | Japan Apr Capacity Utilization down (1.9)% from March
2012-06-14 04:32 GMT | Japan Apr Industrial Production (MoM) declines to -0.2% vs 1.3%
2012-06-14 04:10 GMT | GBP/USD bid above 1.5500
2012-06-14 03:14 GMT | Yen, the only true safe haven currency - HSBC
EURUSD : 1.25733 / 1.25739
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2753 | 1.2682 | 1.2627
1.2501 | 1.2430 | 1.2375
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's remain mixed with a limited range and lack of agreement among technical indicators suggests no trend in the near term. Trend supports are seen at 1.2443/35 and then at 1.2410. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.2553, which is the 21-DMA line and then at the key 1.2600 level.
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GBPUSD : 1.55159 / 1.55168
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5679 | 1.5639 | 1.5583
1.5487 | 1.5447 | 1.5391
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's are bullish and has reached the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (1.5576) of the May decline In terms of technical levels, Trend supports are seen at the 10-DMA line at 1.5460 and then at 1.5454. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5590, 1.5601 and then at 1.5637.
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USDJPY : 79.433 / 79.436
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.168 | 79.960 | 79.707
79.245 | 79.038 | 78.785
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's continue to be mixed with movement bound between 79.00 an 80.00 illustrates lack of a defined trend. Trend supports are seen at 79.17 and then at 79.00. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 79.22 and then at the key 80.00 level.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)