Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC - page 25
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Daily Market Review by FXCC June 15 2012
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 15 2012
Countdown to the Greek Elections and the Future of the Euro
The Asian regions stocks are gaining on Friday morning on hopes that Central banks of the world would offer stimulus if Greece decides to exit the Euro zone. Investors are putting in money ahead of the major events over the weekend mainly the Greek Vote. The SGX Nifty is trading higher by 24 points, tracking other peers. On the economic front, from the Euro-zone, we have the Euro-Zone Trade Balance which is expected to decrease to 4.2Bn from a previous reading of 4.3Bn and could put pressure on the euro. From the US, Empire Manufacturing will be closely watched. It's expected to come in lower at 13.5 and could affect the dollar negatively in the evening session.
The big news of the day is a news from the G20 that there is a plan to coordinate action between global central banks, to work in unison, if needed after the Greek elections. Also in the UK George Osborne announced a plan to pull together the government and the BoE to build a cohesive action to stimulate growth and lending in England.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-15 06:50 GMT | EMU - ECB President Draghi's Speech
2012-06-15 06:50 GMT | UK - Trade Balance
2012-06-15 09:00 GMT | EMU - Employment Change
2012-06-15 13:00 GMT | US - Net Long-Term TIC Flows
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-15 04:56 GMT | USD/JPY extends decline to 78.80
2012-06-15 04:28 GMT | GBP/USD sits around 1.5550 ahead of Europe
2012-06-15 04:21 GMT | EUR/USD holds above 1.2600
2012-06-15 03:06 GMT | BoJ: No alteration to its easing program
EURUSD : 1.26324 / 1.26328
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2786 | 1.2717 | 1.2680
1.2574 | 1.2505 | 1.2468
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's and signals are mixed, likely to be within range over next 48-hours. The pair broke through the 1.26 price. Stochastic remains positive but is close to overbought territories but staying below the pivotal resistance of 1.2650 leave the pair stuck in neutral. A break back below 1.2500 will bring additional losses but a closing above 1.2630 will interrupt the main bearish trend. The trading range for today is among key support at 1.2360 and key resistance at 1.2790.
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GBPUSD : 1.55415 / 1.55424
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5676 | 1.5620 | 1.5584
1.5492 | 1.5436 | 1.5400
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's are mixed - movement remains bound between support at 9 day MA (1.5481) and resistance at the 21 day MA (1.5578). Stochastic is pushing the overbought areas. A drop below 1.5480 will bring further downside actions. The trading range for today is among key support at 1.5230 and key resistance at 1.5730.
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USDJPY : 78.860 / 78.866
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.015 | 79.767 | 79.313
78.612 | 78.365 | 77.915
SUMMARY :
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's and signals are mixed - movement continues to be bound within a narrow range as indicators remain indecisive and contradictory RSI 14 started to show a sign of bearish tendency but trading remains stable above the key support level of 61.8% Fibonacci level. A break above 79.80 may fix the sign on RSI; whilst taking 78.80-78.70 will be a negative scenario. The trading range for today is among key support at 78.20 and key resistance now at 80.75.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 19 2012
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 19 2012
Euphoria over Greece turns to Anxiety over Spain
It didn’t take much time for the euphoria over the Greek elections to die out, as markets are falling in morning trade. The focus is shifting to the bigger economy of Spain and its ever-growing borrowing costs. Spanish Bond yields ended well above the 7% mark. The SGX Nifty is trading higher by 3 points, tracking other peers.
On the economic front, we have the Zew Sentiments from the Euro-zone, which could come in lower and pressurize the euro. From the US, Housing Starts and Building permits are both expected to come in higher and could support the dollar but the main events are the G20 meetings, the FOMC meetings and the EU Summit.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-19 08:30 GMT UK - Consumer & Retail Price Index
2012-06-19 09:00 GMT EMU - Construction Output & ZEW Survey
2012-06-19 12:30 GMT US - Building Permits & Housing Starts
2012-06-19 22:45 GMT New Zealand - Current Account
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-19 04:30 GMT EUR/USD above 1.2600 again
2012-06-19 04:20 GMT GBP/USD gently bid ahead of UK CPI data
2012-06-19 03:53 GMT EUR/USD to finish the year substantially above current level - HSBC
2012-06-19 02:30 GMT EUR/JPY sits around 99.50 in quiet session
EURUSD : 1.26110 / 1.26114
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2820 | 1.2784 | 1.2744
1.2668 | 1.2632 | 1.2592
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's remain mixed - RSI stalling at 50 suggests waning potential for further upswing ( which was accomplished just a bit ago ) but then the EUR tumbled. At this writing, indicators are moving quickly RSI has moved to neutral and Stochastic shows a buy in the daily reading. MACD daily has moved to sell. In the short term all indicators are reading strong buys. The pair sits around the 1.26 handle. After this we have the psychological barrier, and the correction trendline. A break below this TL, near 1.2520, should be a signal of a bearish continuation, with support in 1.24-1.2410 area.
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GBPUSD : 1.56909 / 1.56918
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5785 | 1.5764 | 1.5732
1.5679 | 1.5658 | 1.5626
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's here are quite mixed with resistance seen at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (1.5708) of May decline. 1.56 may well be grounds for support. There is a psychological barrier that, if broken, may open up the downside toward 1.5240. Before opening up this low, the near term chart shows that there is a trendline that is near 1.55 we are even more likely opening up the 1.5240 low. Today the pair are expected to be range bound
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USDJPY : 78.994 / 78.998
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.760 | 79.533 | 79.365
78.9670 | 78.745 | 78.575
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's have become very mixed and even contradictory; near term support seen at 200 day MA (78.75). Short term all point to sell, except for MACD which has reversed to a buy. When we move to daily, the signals have all moved in different directions, there is no support for any decision. MA's all the way out to 200day read sell, MACD reads sell but RSI and Stochastic show neutral. Resistance levels: 79.51 80.37 81.22 and support levels: 78.59 77.62 76.80. The pair reversed its direction at 78.60 and current bias is positive, for a break through 79.50, towards 80.60. Minor intraday support can be spotted at 79.02.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 20 2012
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 20 2012
Markets eagerly await the FOMC statements later today
US markets rose yesterday and ended at five-week highs after upbeat housing data, as the Federal Reserve considered further moves to stimulate the economy. A recent batch of disappointing U.S. economic data such as industrial production, retail sales and jobless claims, has contributed to the optimism about further stimulus to be announced following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, along with continued concerns about the impact of the ongoing financial crisis in Europe
That good old “risk on” feeling was back in markets, and for a day they traded in a fairly conventional rally pattern. Stocks were up in the US (0.98% on the S&P 500), the Euro rallied against the USD, with EURUSD trading above 1.27 at times during the day, and WTI appreciated by close to a dollar. Today, everything seems to be on hold waiting for the FOMC statements this afternoon. Traders will begin to position themselves prior to the same, but markets seem to have an eerie calm as the day begins.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-20 08:30 | UK - Bank of England Minutes
2012-06-20 16:30 | US - Fed Interest Rate Decision
2012-06-20 18:00 | US - FOMC Economic Projections
2012-06-20 18:15 | US - Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-20 04:32 GMT | Japan Apr All Industry Activity Index (MoM) 0.1%
2012-06-20 04:23 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates around 1.5720; BoE Minutes eyed
2012-06-20 04:23 GMT | EUR/USD awaits Greek government coalition below 1.2700
2012-06-20 03:47 GMT | GBP/AUD sits below 1.5450 after overnight dip to 2-mth lows
EURUSD : 1.26783 / 1.26786
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2820 | 1.2784 | 1.2744
1.2668 | 1.2632 | 1.2592
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical are very mixed - RSI (sub-50) remains the lone technical holdout, limiting upside. The overall outlook remains bearish, from here we still see room for short-term upside before a fresh lower top is sought out. Supports are seen at the 10-DMA line at 1.2568 and then at 1.2552. Whereas resistance levels are seen at 1.2748 and then at the 55-DMA line at 1.2854.
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GBPUSD : 1.57290 / 1.57297
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5785 | 1.5764 | 1.5732
1.5679 | 1.5658 | 1.5626
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's continue to read mixed - resistance near 1.5700 continues to be seen as the GBP is sitting right on the 1.57price line. risks seem tilted to the upside to allow for a necessary short-term corrective bounce after setbacks stalled, look for additional upside towards the 1.5800-1.6000. Supports are seen at the 10-DMA line at 1.5563 and then at the 21-DMA line 1.5559. Whereas resistance levels are seen at the 21-DMA upper Bollinger level at 1.5790 and then at 1.5802.
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USDJPY : 78.893 / 78.898
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.760 | 79.533 | 79.365
78.970 | 78.750 | 78.575
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical's are bearish - decline nearing 200 day MA (78.76); support expected at 78.61. After attempts at recovery the market should continue to break higher, set on a retest and break of the 2012 highs by 84.20 further up. However, at this point, we will need to see a break and close back above 80.00. Supports are seen at 78.61/10 and then at 77.99. Whereas, resistance levels are seen at 79.31/51 and then at 79.75.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 26 2012
Daily Market Review by FXCC June 26 2012
EU in total turmoil and chaos... Moody's downgrades 28 Spanish Banks
Markets traded with a negative bias on Monday: equities sold off in Europe and North America (-2% on the DAX, -1.6% on the S&P 500, -0.9% on the TSX) on a succession of ominous news reports out of Europe. Spain announced that it would seek bailout funds from the Eurogroup, and later Cyprus announced that it would seek bailout funds from the Eurogroup… the hits kept on coming throughout the day. While the Eurogroup has officially welcomed both requests, it will need to come up with plans to meet both countries’ needs in the short term, even as the EU Summit planned for the 28th and 29th is supposed to focus on larger matters such as coordinated stimulus throughout the Eurozone, the relaxing of timetables for fiscal consolidation in different European countries, etc.
The euro traded lower, with EURUSD closing at 1.25, while CAD strengthened during the second half of the day as the near-month WTI contract rebounded from an intraday low of US$78 per barrel to US$79.20 (still lower on the day – it had opened above US$80 per barrel). The TSX was buoyed by strength in the gold mining sub-sector (+1.8%) while the oil and gas sector followed crude prices lower. Government bonds in Canada, the US and Germany all appreciated today, and the generic German 2-year is back to a single digit yield of 0.07%. The market mood was summed up by a release that read "As demands for action weigh on EU leaders, markets begin to lose confidence that this week’s EU summit will yield anything more than promises and small steps. In this environment the markets are shedding risk. "
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-26 08:30 GMT | UK - Public Sector Net Borrowing (May)
2012-06-26 08:30 GMT | UK - Inflation Report Hearings
2012-06-26 14:00 GMT | US - Consumer Confidence (Jun)
2012-06-26 14:00 GMT | US - Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-26 03:57 GMT | USD/JPY selling off ahead of tax voting
2012-06-26 03:40 GMT | US new home sector to remain under pressure - RBC
2012-06-26 02:02 GMT | China CB Leading Economic Index: 1.1
2012-06-26 01:50 GMT | Risk currencies on correction mode after Monday's USD buying
EURUSD
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2615 | 1.2580 | 1.2542
1.2469 | 1.2434 | 1.2396
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Crucial support is evident at 1.2440, and a sustained breach of the same may see the euro test its previous lows of 1.2286 and 1.2142 in the coming days. RSI-14 is currently trading at 0.37 with a negative bias on the weekly chart. We can expect the euro to trade lower following its overall downtrend. Meanwhile, resistances are evident at 1.2647 (8-period EMA on daily chart) then 1.2740.
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GBPUSD :
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5643 | 1.5617 | 1.5591
1.5539 | 1.5513 | 1.5487
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
We can expect the pair to continue its downward rally and test the support of 1.5510, or 23.6% retracement level for the aforementioned range. If the pair breaches this support, then the next support is at 1.5360; the resistances are at 1.5660 (8-period EMA on weekly chart) and then 1.5755.
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USDJPY :
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
81.475 81.025 80.340
79.210 78.760 78.075
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The pair is trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in the downward rally ranging from 84.17 to 77.62). We can expect the pair to retest the support levels of 79.70-79.40, and the yen may start inching up from these levels. The RSI-14 is currently at 0.51 and is tending towards the upside. This week, we recommend buying at support levels of 79.80-79.75. The supports are evident at 79.70-79.40 and resistances are at 80.91 and 81.60, representing 50% and 61.8% retracement level for the 84.17-77.62 range, respectively. Short term signals are bearish but as we move to the longer view, indicators are totally confused.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC June 27 2012
Market Review by FXCC June 27 2012
EU Summit to consider "Grand Master Plan" while Europe Burns
US markets traded with a positive bias today, as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were both up approximately 0.75% after yesterday’s sell-off. Bonds sold off, but only moderately while crude traded fairly flat in the US. The near-month Brent crude future shot up 2.3% on news that striking oil workers in Norway caused the closure of four oil platforms on top of the shut-down of a large processing and drilling facility that has been idle since Sunday. In this context, the Canadian dollar traded stronger against USD, appreciating to 1.0237 at the close. Prices of some of the petroleum blends that Canada exports, particularly WCS, remain fairly low both in absolute terms and vs. WTI, and the strength in Brent did not carry over into Canadian energy stocks, which were flat on the day. US stocks advanced despite that fact that US consumer confidence fell to a reading of 62 in June from a reading of 64.4 in May. That’s the lowest reading since January of this year, when the index stood at 61.1. The decline was driven: a) by increases in respondents who found employment ‘hard to get,’ b) who found general conditions were ‘worse’, and c) a reduction in intentions to make major purchases.
President of the European Council Herman Von Rompuy published a plan titled “Towards a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union” for discussion at the EU Summit this week. The report outlines his views as to how the European crisis ought to be addressed. Weakness in the euro became more evident throughout the day, as investors lost confidence in any results from the EU Summit and their grand plan, markets want action to help correct today's problems, not plans for the future, when their maybe no EU or euro.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-27 08:30 GMT | UK - BBA Mortgage Approvals (May)
2012-06-27 10:00 GMT | UK - CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun)
2012-06-27 12:30 GMT | US - Durable Goods Orders (May)
2012-06-27 14:00 GMT | US - Pending Home Sales (May)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-27 04:33 GMT | EUR/USD glued at round 1.2500
2012-06-27 04:28 GMT | Dismantling conventional logic BoJ QE equals Yen weakness - HSBC
2012-06-27 02:48 GMT | EUR/JPY back to opening price
2012-06-27 01:43 GMT | CPI-IPI mix implies more MAS flexibility - Nomura
EURUSD : 1.24990 / 1.24993
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2619 | 1.2575 | 1.2530
1.2441 | 1.2397 | 1.2352
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Daily technicals have just moved to bearish. Whereas short term technicals are providing opposing signals. Supports are seen at 1.2419 and then at 1.2375 both congestion levels. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.2530 and then at 1.2565. . The primary outlook is lower towards 1.2434 and 1.2360 and a break below 12287 is expected in the near future. The main question is whether or not the decline continues from below 1.2566. The bias remains bearish and strength into resistance, especially on news, should be sold.
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GBPUSD : 1.56337 / 1.56347
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5755 | 1.5703 | 1.5668
1.5581 | 1.5529 | 1.5494
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Indicators are mixed and technicals are not in agreement; near term resistance is at 9 day MA 1.5642 also supports are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.5541, 1.5535 and then at 1.5473. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5660, 1.5734 and then at 1.5578. Whether or not the decline continues from below or above Friday’s high at 1.5634. The overall outlook is bearish against 1.5777
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USDJPY : 79.446 / 79.449
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.310 | 80.050 | 79.500
79.205 | 78.950 | 78.655
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals are mostly bearish with others in neutral heading toward the bearish levels. The pair is heading toward the lower end of a wide range bound between 200 day MA 78.84 and 100 day MA 80.51. Support is well defined from the 20 day average, channel support. A break above yesterday's top and nearest resistance 80.62 would encourage further recovery of the dollar. Immediate support is yesterday's bottom at 79.43, and a consistent break below could strengthen the yen further down towards next target 78.55.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC June 28 2012
Market Overview by FXCC June 28 2012
The calm before the storm.... EU Summit formally begins today.
Today begins the three ring circus, known as the EcoFin Summit, or the EU Summit, with all the hype of a Broadway Show, getting more press coverage then the Euro games as Finance Ministers from all the EU nations advance their own personal agendas while seeking as much press coverage as possible. Markets will be controlled by news flow and press with lots of incorrect, out dated and erroneous statements. Plans and programs will be leaked and divulged, none of which will have anything to do with the final outcome. Markets and Investors do not expect much from the carnival. Lots of Grand Plans and Master Schemes, which will take years to enact or never happen. Currency markets are expected to hold firm, as they have calmed leading into the Summit, risk aversion remains the overall theme.
Pressure is on the Finance Ministers to come up with a comprehensive plan to save the euro and the EU, today, as it might not exist to implement their long term schemes. This is D day.. Elsewhere, the US has had some positive eco data on the home front, with housing showing some life and Durable goods also on the positive side. Consumer confidence has been dragging, although with the drop in gasoline prices, markets were expecting a bit of a turn, but the jobs market continues to weigh on Americans. Japan, is in political turmoil, as Prime Minister Noda, risked all of this capital to pass the increase in Consumption Tax legislation, which passed with a wide margin, but now faces problems within his coalition as enough members voted against to lose his controlling interest.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-28 08:30 GMT UK - Gross Domestic Product
2012-06-28 09:00 GMT EMU - Consumer Confidence (Jun)
2012-06-28 12:30 GMT US - Gross Domestic Product
2012-06-28 12:30 GMT US - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures
FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-28 04:26 GMT EUR/USD jumps ahead of the EU Summit
2012-06-28 04:22 GMT Aud new houses and job vacancies came soft today.NAB
2012-06-28 02:58 GMT EUR/AUD dips to 3-month low
2012-06-28 02:09 GMT Eurozone leaders ready for summit – Rabobank
EURUSD : 1.25143 / 1.25149
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2566 | 1.2537 | 1.2504
1.2442 | 1.2413 | 1.2380
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals are mixed, with better risk/reward elsewhere. Short term, near term and long term are providing opposing signals. Near term support lies at 1.2440; while resistance comes in at the 1.2575, both congestion levels. Longer term signals have all become bearish, including Stochastic, RSI and MACD supporting the bearish outlook. Supports are seen at 1.2442 and then at 1.2380. Whereas daily resistance levels are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.2530 and then at the 10-DMA line at 1.2583.
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GBPUSD : 1.55878 / 1.55888
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5721 | 1.5681 | 1.5626
1.5531 | 1.5491 | 1.5436
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals remain mixed with trading within a triangular consolidation pattern, resistance remains at 9 day MA (1.5650), and near term support is at the 21 day MA (1.5547). Short term signals are supporting a strong bullish run for the present, where as daily signals are the complete opposites offering a strong bearish outlook. Daily supports are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.5540 and then at 1.5535. Whereas, resistance levels are seen at 1.5721 and then at 1.5797.
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USDJPY : 79.450 / 79.453
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.420 | 80.145 | 79.908
79.395 | 79.125 | 78.885
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals are mixed but shifting to a sell mode, with support over past two sessions seen at 9 day MA (79.53), with resistance at 50 day MA (79.75) over the same period. Daily supports are seen at 79.36 and then at 79.12. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 80.09 and then at 80.63. Yesterday's outlook remains in place today, a break above Tuesdays top and nearest resistance 80.62 would encourage further recovery of the dollar. Immediate support is Tuesday's bottom at 79.36, and a consistent break below could strengthen the yen further down towards next target 78.55.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC July 2 2012
Market Overview by FXCC July 2 2012
Chinese PMI disappoints
U.S. stocks soared on Friday, and all three indexes closed out the first half of 2012 up more than 5%. NASDAQ has etched double-digit gains. Dow Jones closed the day up 278 points, or 2.2%. S&P 500 gained 33 points, or 2.5%. Nasdaq added 86 points, or 3%. A deal among European leaders to help struggling eurozone banks buoyed global markets Friday, at least temporarily erasing investors' looming fears over the viability of the eurozone. While stocks have clocked broad gains for the year, all three indexes closed out the second quarter below first quarter highs. Fears over Europe pushed stocks down nearly 10% in early June. Still, on Friday, investors looked solely at what was accomplished at the two-day European Union summit in Brussels. European leaders struck a "breakthrough" deal early Friday aimed at easing the recapitalization of banks. The European markets surged after European leaders agreed to the recapitalization plan and a tighter union. Britain's FTSE added 2%, DAX in Germany jumped 3.5% and France's CAC 40 rallied 3.8%.
Except for Shanghai, which trades marginally lower by 0.2%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the green. Nikkei & Strait Times are up by 0.1% & 0.5% respectively, while Taiwan is up by 0.4%. Kospi is trading on a flat note. Among the metals, Aluminum lost 0.3% while Copper gained the most (2.4%). Zinc and Nickel rose by 2.2% and 0.2% respectively. Oil for August delivery rose $7.27 to $84.96 a barrel. Gold futures for August delivery as high as $53.8 to $1,604.2 an ounce Coming up this week, the US will celebrates their Independence Day holiday in the middle of the week but the trading week will still have some important headlines, including a European Central Bank meeting and U.S. unemployment data. There will be an ECB rate announcement where expectations are of a 0.25% cut to a record low 0.75%., German and Spanish industrial production and airlines release traffic numbers.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-07-02 08:00 GMT | EMU - Markit Manufacturing PMI
2012-07-02 08:28 GMT | UK - Markit Manufacturing PMI
2012-07-02 09:00 GMT | EMU - Unemployment Rate (May)
2012-07-02 14:00 GMT | US - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-07-02 04:45 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates around 1.5660
2012-07-02 04:19 GMT | BoE will ease more than expected, stay wary on Cable - UBS
2012-07-02 03:46 GMT | Probability to re-price RBNZ rate cuts - BNZ
2012-07-02 03:10 GMT | AUD/NZD down with regional PMI readings
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EURUSD : 1.26251 / 1.26255
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2723 | 1.2696 | 1.2671
1.2621 | 1.2586 | 1.2561
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
EUR/USD opened the week with bearish momentum, off from a high of 1.2676. The pair was likely to find support at 1.2408, Thursday’s low, and resistance at 1.2692, Friday’s high. The short term bias remains mildly on the upside for 1.2747. A break will target 100% projection of 1.2287 to 1.2747 from 1.2406 at 1.2866 next. Expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement at 1.2902 this will limit the upside. A break below 1.2406 is needed to signal completion of the current move and a return to the bearish outlook.
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GBPUSD : 1.56686 / 1.56696
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5747 | 1.5719 | 1.5694
1.5659 | 1.5621 | 1.5602
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Sterling is hanging at the key resistance area at the 1.57 level with the downward sloping trend line from the April 30th high connecting to the June 20th high at 1.56785. The upward channel trend line which was broken last week comes in at the 1.56818. The price is above the 38.2% retracement. This is all bullish for the pair. The next key target will come in at the 1.5748 level and then at 1.5783 (50% of the move down from April high) and 100 day MA at 1.5813.The pair could reverse and become bearish if it violates the1.5661 level and then the 1.5634 level.
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USDJPY : 79.624 / 79.629
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.650 | 80.150 | 79.930
79.570 | 79.335 | 79.170
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Looking at the hourly chart the price has moved above the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 79.60 level (bullish). Staying above this level keeps the bulls in control. With a move below, the bullish bias disappears. The next upside targets become the 80.044 (61.8% of the weeks range) and the 80.14 (38.2% of the move down from the March 2012 high, and the key 100 day MA at the 80.56 level. A break above (or even below if the price cannot stay above the 79.50-60 area), should be met with increased momentum.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC July 3 2012
Market Overview by FXCC July 3 2012
US Markets closed tomorrow, ECB and BoE rate decision due on Thursday and US Nonfarm Payroll on Friday…
Asian equities have surged drastically and are up by 1.50%, whereas the US markets closed mixed. On the economic front today, we have U.K’s PMI construction and Net Consumer Credit data, which is expected to come in lower than before. From the Eurozone, the PPI data is expected to come in slightly positive. The dollar index, which compares the US unit to a basket of other currencies, was trading at 81.888 on Monday, up from 81.658 in North American trade late Friday.
US manufacturing shrank in June for the first time in nearly 3-years, adding to signs of a slowdown in the recovery but raised hopes for more easing from the Federal Reserve. Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has drafted a bill calling for Iran to try to stop oil tankers from shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz helped curb oil price losses, especially for Brent crude
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-07-03 08:30 GMT | UK - Consumer Credit (May)
2012-07-03 09:00 GMT | EMU - Producer Price Index (May)
2012-07-03 13:45 GMT | US - ISM New York index (Jun)
2012-07-03 14:00 GMT | US - Factory Orders (MoM) (May)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-07-03 04:36 GMT | RBA leaves rates unchanged; monetary policy appropiate
2012-07-03 04:11 GMT | GBP/USD quiet around 1.5700; UK data ahead
2012-07-03 03:33 GMT | USD/JPY jumps to session highs 79.80
2012-07-03 02:20 GMT | EUR/NZD threatening all-time lows
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EURUSD : 1.25970 / 1.25973
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2742 | 1.2705 | 1.2642
1.2542 | 1.2505 | 1.2442
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The euro has managed to sustain above 1.2575 level, and it may test higher levels of 1.2890, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the 1.3486-1.2286 range, in the near term. The RSI -14 momentum indicator is currently trading at 0.40 and is inching higher, supporting up move in the pair. Expect the euro to continue it's up move. The supports are at 1.2575 then 1.2477 and resistances are at 1.2742 then 1.2890. The pair tested the 8-period EMA on the weekly charts, but did not manage to close above it.
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GBPUSD : 1.56962 / 1.56972
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5808 1.5765 1.5728
1.5648 1.5605 1.5568
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The weekly chart indicates the pair forming a “triple-bottom pattern”. Currently, the GBP is trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward rally (1.6301-1.5265). The RSI-14 momentum indicator is hovering at 0.47 with a positive bias. Expect the pound to move higher and test levels of 1.5780. A break above this level will bring forth the next resistance at 1.5910, or 61.8% retracement level. Meanwhile, supports are evident at 1.5583 of a trendline and then at 1.5500
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USDJPY : 79.743 / 79.747
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.310 | 80.085 | 79.770
79.225 | 79.000 | 78.685
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The charts indicate the support of a trend line drawn connecting the lower bottoms. The RSI-14 has been hovering around 0.50 for the last few weeks and is not indicating a clear trend for the pair. Expect the yen to once again test the lower trend line supports of 79.40-79.50 and to rebound from the same. If the yen manages to sustain above 80.18, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for the 84.17-77.66 range, then the pair may test higher levels of 80.95. Supports are at 79.50 then 79.10 and resistances are at 80.17 then 80.94.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC July 5 2012
Market Overview by FXCC July 5 2012
Central Bank Day… The ECB and the BoE go heads up
This morning Asian share markets are down over 1.5% as they await the ECB decision. Yesterday Asian markets had continued to outperform for the third consecutive day which marked yet another session of consolidation marking marginal gains after clocking large gains post the European summit last week. Broader indices clambered almost a percent. Global indices too witnessed an assorted trading session as investors hoped for an eased monetary stance by the central banks to support the faltering economy. The market is waiting upon the ECB and the Bank of England meetings today which will provide some direction to the markets.
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) are both meeting on this morning, and the former is likely cut rates by 25 basis points to its record-low. The BOE may introduce more stimuli after keeping the benchmark rate at an all-time low of 0.5% in June. Yesterday, US markets were closed for the 4th of July holiday so it was light volume all around with little on the news front, little in eco data and little on the political front, except some rhetoric from Iran, pushing up crude oil prices.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-07-05 11:00 GMT UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
2012-07-05 11:00 GMT UK - BoE Asset Purchase Facility
2012-07-05 11:45 GMT EMU - ECB Interest Rate Decision
2012-07-05 12:15 GMT US - ADP Employment Change
FOREX NEWS :
2012-07-05 04:27 GMT EUR/USD blocked above 1.2500 ahead of ECB
2012-07-05 04:17 GMT GBP/USD consolidates below 1.56, BoE eyed
2012-07-05 03:21 GMT ECB to hold fire; Draghi statement key - UBS
2012-07-05 02:06 GMT USD/JPY breaks above 80.00
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EURUSD :
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2679 | 1.2643 | 1.2580
1.2481 | 1.2445 | 1.2382
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Signals remain mixed, range trading with support at Friday’s open of 1.2443 and resistance at the 50- day MA of 1.2702. Risk/return is better elsewhere. Firm and sustained trading below 1.2550 however, will be a strong sign that the bears have taken control here again.
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GBPUSD : 1.56058 / 1.56067
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5772 | 1.5731 | 1.5657
1.5542 | 1.5501 | 1.5427
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Signals are mixed although indicators show that the upward momentum has ended with a strong potential for decline. Expect further weakness today to the next important support level at 1.5545/40. Below this support will confirm that the larger degree downtrend on daily chart has likely resumed and strong weakness should follow.
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USDJPY : 79.766 / 79.770
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.455 | 80.215 | 80.081
79.705 | 79.465 | 79.340
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Signals are bullish - indicators all point to upward movement; support is at 21 day MA 79.55. The pair has been trading sideways between 79.60 and 80.00 but a break out of this range is likely to occur soon. There is strong favor the upside here. A move above 80.00 should be enough to signal that a rally toward 83.80 level has begun.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC July 6 2012
Market Overview by FXCC July 6 2012
Central Banks are the focus of the markets.
The euro fell against a range of currencies in European trading hours Thursday as investors sold the common currency on expectations that the European Central Bank will cut its key interest rate to record lows. Markets had already factored in the rate cut, but it was the decision of the ECB to change its deposit rate to 0 and then the pessimistic statement issued by the ECB President. The Bank of England decision to increase asset purchase by 50 billion pounds, which was a widely expected pushed dollar index lower.
China surprised the markets by lowering its rate and now the markets are focused on the US Nonfarm report due later today. A poor report might for the Fed to action, or a strong report will see the USD gain against its partners.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-07-06 08:30 GMT | UK - Producer Price Index - (Jun)
2012-07-06 10:00 GMT | GERMANY - Industrial Production - (May)
2012-07-06 12:30 GMT | US - Nonfarm Payrolls - (Jun)
2012-07-06 12:30 GMT | CANADA - Unemployment Rate - (Jun)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-07-06 04:34 GMT | GBP/USD directionless, hovers above 1.55
2012-07-06 04:03 GMT | EUR/USD frozen ahead of NFP
2012-07-06 03:14 GMT | Japan may run out of money in October, Azumi warns
2012-07-06 02:31 GMT | AUD will push towards USD1.07 by mid next year - ANZ
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EURUSD : 1.23848 / 1.23854
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2694 | 1.2620 | 1.2565
1.2481 | 1.2452 | 1.2397
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals are mixed, range trading with support 1.2343 and resistance at the 50-day MA of 1.2687. Risk/return is better elsewhere. The might be an early correction to move back to Friday's close at 1.2443 but this pair is moving randomly. The overall downtrend is back on line. The outlook remains on the daily charts to trend downwards toward the1.2285. A break above 1.25 could change to a bullish scenario.
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GBPUSD : 1.55305 / 1.55315
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5734 | 1.5699 | 1.5639
1.5544 | 1.5509 | 1.5449
SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals remain bearish and most indicators suggest downward movement, support seen at 1.5500. The implications are for weakness below 1.5484. On the verge of taking out 1.5484 Resistance at 1.5700-1.5730 is vital for the movement of the currency pair. Supports are seen at 1.5485 and then at 1.5454. The long term outlook continues to be bearish with a target of 1.5450
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USDJPY : 79.906 / 79.912
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.515 | 80.300 | 79.980
79.450 | 79.235 | 78.915
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals are reading bullish as the ranging upward movement continues; support is at 21 day MA (79.57). The USDJPY did indeed exceed 80 but conviction on the move is lacking, it will need to break above 80.61 with conviction. Supports are seen at 79.55 and then at 79.12 where as resistance levels are seen at 80.63, 81.15 and then at 81.45.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)