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EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for December 5th -- 9th, 2011
Weekly Technical Levels:
Tip (s):
R3 and S3 are good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can be exceeded occasionally.
Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.
In a strong trend, price will be low through a pivot point line and keep going.
If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.
Time Frame: H4.
Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher of the last week (It has 120 candles, as you know each candle is formed in 1 hour on H4 chart from 28th of November to 2nd of December, 2011) in order to determine low and high price.
Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
Average = 1.3403
Range was: 291 pips.
The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 1.3403.
1.3171 will be formed a strong support.
1.3750 will be formed a strong resistance.
Volatility is 390.00 so the market has called for a high volatile.
It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 1.3553 and 1.3212.
Observation (s):
If the strength of the trend for pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.
Volatility Formulas: Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower).
Performed by Mourad El Keddani, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/JPY Intraday Technical Level For December 6th / 2011
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Resistance. 3 : 78.17.
Resistance. 2 : 78.02.
Resistance. 1 : 77.86.
Support. 1 : 77.67.
Support. 2 : 77.52.
Support. 3 : 77.36.
DESCRIPTION :
Please note for the levels of support. 3 (77.36) and Resistance. 3 (78.17), generally when a level is touched, the USD/JPY will turn around the opposite direction from the previous minimum of 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are managed on a breakout over 50 pips then it would be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For December 6th / 2011
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Breakout BUY Level : 1.3464.
Strong Resistance : 1.3456.
Original Resistance : 1.3443.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3430.
Target Inner Area : 1.3398.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3366.
Original Support : 1.3353.
Strong Support : 1.3340.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.3332.
DESCRIPTION :
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3353 and 1.3443 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.3340 and 1.3456 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.3332 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.3464 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3366 and 1.3430 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.3398 level.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, December, 06 / 2011
The week began with a certain relief in the markets, with a moderately positive jobs report in the U.S., and the ISM service, which although did not offer the expected growth, was not that far.
However, in the afternoon in New York, learned that Standard & Poor's announced shortly his change of perspective for the debt of 17 countries with the euro as currency.
To Sarkozy and Merkel, meeting in Paris, there are probably choking lunch with the news, but worse happened who bought euros at that time: the single currency fell unmitigated from 1.3470 to 1.3370 area in minutes before offering some reprieve.
The forex market has, in this sense, its most unpredictable: These ads are not provided and the time of publication generate unforeseeable movements.
Beyond the operational issue, the European leaders meeting scheduled for Thursday, 8 at night and on Friday 9, seems to be decisive (again) for the future of the euro.
There are many voices, and very authoritative, like Buffett and Soros, who think the way it is, the euro is low life, whatever the measures taken to save it.
The truth is that businesses large and small, money problems are solved with money. And the deficits, whether family, business or nation, are solved by lowering expenses or increasing revenues.
To think that by lowering the cost of debt, increase exports, and maintaining a proper level of subsidies governments of South American countries with no international credibility will improve the situation is a gross error that Europe is committing right now .
There is talk of debt, rate of interest of banks. No mention of production, sales, consumption, exports and growth. When the equation is back, begin to change the situation.
Tuesday's European session returns to the prevailing climate of pessimism, and just after midday stock indexes of the old continent have a profit, although very moderate.
European currencies, meanwhile, recovered positions, once again exceeding the 1.34 euro and the pound sterling above 1.56. In turn, currencies linked to commodities uptrends retake paths, all in the short term.
At 9:00 of the East know the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of Canada, being the most important fact of the day from the macro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Bullish Outlook, December 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
USD/CAD
The pair American dollar - Canadian dollar maintained its upward trend in the daily chart, this day the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates, investors expect no change. The pair is below the 1.0240 level test, which is aligned with the pivot point weekly, if this level is perforated so bullish. the pair will have highs around 1.0400 and 1.0600 On the other hand, the indicator MACD and Momentum show signs of upward movement. We suggest waiting until the 1.0100 to take bullish positions, because this week will be a busy week for the markets desicion.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, December, 07 / 2011
Market's expectation regarding the situation in Europe is going through the summit on Thursday and Friday
remain the leaders of the European Union.
These summits, the results are not dissimilar to that of other mass gatherings, and are full of good
intentions, idioms and zero accomplishments, seems to give the old continent some air in your search for
internal consensus.
What is abundantly clear is that a system of decision making involving 17 countries, and need unanimity,
it is impossible to proceed.
It is even contradictory to think that Germany may have similar interests to Portugal, to name just one
example. On the other hand, trying to discipline governments that have been stored for 10 years the
slightest modesty in terms of expenditure, and their nations have borrowed to unbearable limits, is an
impossible mission.
The extreme voluntarism, without action of any kind, it appears to the pompous announcement of the search
for a common fiscal policy from here on out for members of the eurozone. But do not talk about what will
be done to cope with what has happened, which is very complex.
So think ahead is fine if circumstances permit, but here it is calling into question the validity of the
euro as euro itself moneda.Al not seem to worry too much what happens.
The single currency will not fall as might have happened in the past, in which, for reasons far less
difficult than the actual number of cents a day lost to the dólar.De However, it is tangible the low to
the Swiss franc, to which on the floor of 1.25 set by the Swiss National Bank for some time (the ceiling
was 1.20), and to the British pound, against whom he knew to be at 0.99 in his prime.
Moreover, rising oil prices and the announcement of the Bank of Canada not to lower the interest rate (at
1% was), something expected but positive at the time we live, has given strength to the Loonie over the
last 24 hours. Oil inventories in the U.S., at 10:30 Eastern, will give new Canadian currency movements,
that seems to have hit a ceiling of 1.0070 short term just hours ago.
The other major market benchmark, or at least its spirit, gold behaves no clear trend in the short term.
The Australian dollar continues its steps, and sought in the Asian session near 1.03, to give up then, in
line with the rest of the hard currencies in its low against the dollar.
We do not expect major movements of major junctions during the American session, beyond the usual at the
opening of the NYSE. Incidentally, the Dow Jones had a good closing Tuesday at 12,150 points, and their
futures are close to that level within hours of login.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/AUD Buy Above 1.3000, December 07, 2011 (Monthly Strategy)
EUR/AUD
The Euro - Australian dollar pair collapses in an exceptionally incisive way during a period of more than
two years and a half! This is one of the most aggressive major trends in the markets, certainly in the
context of serial weakening outside the euro area following the debt crisis on the continent, and the
good standing of the Australian economy as well as the large gap in interest rates, which was expanded in
recent years for Australia.
What is very interesting to discover that the pair has moved in a range of 1.2900 to 1.4200 for all the
great fall. We have good reason to believe that there is a possibility that such a correction would get
started already in the short term, following the temporary solution and the relative calm on the problem
of the European zone. It is assumed that even the smallest correction should push the pair towards the
resistance of 1.5000 Australian dollars per euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/JPY Intraday Technical Level For December 8th / 2011
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Resistance. 3 : 78.06.
Resistance. 2 : 77.91.
Resistance. 1 : 77.75.
Support. 1 : 77.56.
Support. 2 : 77.41.
Support. 3 : 77.25.
DESCRIPTION :
Please note for the levels of support. 3 (77.25) and Resistance. 3 (78.06), generally when a level is touched, the USD/JPY will turn around the opposite direction from the previous minimum of 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are managed on a breakout over 50 pips then it would be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For December 8th / 2011
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Breakout BUY Level : 1.3472.
Strong Resistance : 1.3464.
Original Resistance : 1.3451.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3438.
Target Inner Area : 1.3406.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3374.
Original Support : 1.3361.
Strong Support : 1.3348.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.3340
DESCRIPTION :
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3361 and 1.3451 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.3348 and 1.3464 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.3340 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.3472 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3374 and 1.3438 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.3406 level.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
EUR/JPY Buy Above 103,10 December 08, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
EUR/JPY
The Euro - Japanese yen pair maintains its upward trend in 4 hours charts, The pair goes to his weekly
support of 103.10, at this level can enter buying euros, with a target to the 200-day moving average, it
serves as a resistance level of 105.54, we believe that the pair again tried to break this level and stay
above this, if the pair manages to close above this level we can enter a buy with a target around the end
of last resistance at 108.50 yen per euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, December, 13 / 2011
If European leaders believed that they meet and do a lot of ads, promises sanctions that are already planned for over 10 years and never met, and create commissions, corporations, chambers, equipment and other rubber stamps, would change the mood of the markets and going to restore confidence in them, on Monday had the answer.
The euro fell again, with European exchanges, accompanied by American stock markets, which of course do not believe that the EU summit last week to bring to fruition the sovereign debt crisis that bear much of the nations the old continent.
Be difficult to convince the markets with theoretical ads and no money in sight, and much more you will convince the various countries used to live with a very loose lifestyle to change their habits just because their government has wasted public money, with the approval of rating agencies now appear as severe, and advised banks to lend money at low rates.
You can not blame the banks, even if large part of responsibility, who are asked to pay, since it is their job. But it was clear that Greece or Portugal, or Ireland, could not afford the payments on the loans they took.
If it was not until now, and the summit has not left any positive conclusion as to goals of growth, exports, or creating jobs, why should change that in the future?
This interpretation is the one that markets, which in any event on Tuesday will have another focus: at 2:15 pm, ET the Fed will announce its monetary policy.
Unchanged interest rate view (the owner of his own Fed, Bernanke, canceled any possibility in this direction until within a year and a half), the expectation is to see that communicate the FOMC after the meeting that ends today .
The main macroeconomic indicators have improved markedly in the U.S. in recent months, beginning with the creation of employment, home sales and retail sales, and this is encouraging for the rest of the world.
Be seen, then, which is the view that the different governors of the Fed, whose words are usually very measures, but also very consistent with reality.
Also known in the U.S., although earlier, at 8:30, the number of retail sales, which could increase slightly from the October data.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, December 13, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)
EUR/USD
We have the Euro - U.S. Dollar, in clear strong support, historically on October 02 I come to the same level and provoke a rebound, that I take it up to the 1.4200, which has been consumed again to the fall up to the exact 1,32. at this moment we do not recommend buy or selling. Our strategy remains bearish. we must watch, if you buy the market may not lead to a fall deeper and if we sell, it may cause imminent rebound. we must be careful when there are these scenarios. Our weekly chart marks the monthly support level(M_S1) 1.3147 a strong floor. If this level is perforated, we could see a sharp fall of the euro to the level of 1.2800. On the other hand, if the rise occurs timid euro could lead to the nearest month resistance of 1.3800. at these levels can sell a long-term goal to 1.2840 dollars per euro.
The momentum indicator MACD and shows a possibility of imminent rebound. This analysis, we realize it before the fall in the Euro. instaforex.com/forex_analysis/42641/
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 14, 2011
AUD/USD is developing potential impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0379. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with impulse subwave C still developing from 1.0224. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9663-1.0379, and expansions off 1.0379-1.0048-1.0224, 1.0224-1.0029-1.0161.
Supports:
- 0.9966 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9937 = .618 retracement
- 0.9893 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9845 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0379-0.9979.
Resistances:
- 1.0132 = .382 ret
- 1.0179 = .50 ret
- 1.0226 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the specified resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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