InstaForex Wave Analysis - page 100
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 2, 2011
AUD/USD broke above 1.0218 and is developing potential wave C of medium term uptrend from 0.9861 (colored light green in the chart), this wave will be confirmed when the price breaks above 1.0379. On smaller timeframes this wave has three subwaves - A, B and C (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0044. The tragets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9663-1.0379-0.9861, 0.9861-1.0218-1.0044.
Resistances:
- 1.0265 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0303 = COP
- 1.0401 = objective point (OP)
If the price continues its decline the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0044-1.0268.
Supports:
- 1.0182 = .382 retracement
- 1.0145 = .50 ret
- 1.0130 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up, it's preferable to try long positions until the price breaks below 1.0138 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 3, 2011
GBP/JPY is moving down within impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71. Within this wave we have five subwaves (colored red in the chart), and subwave 5 is developing from 119.99. The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-121.54-122.21, 122.21-119.21-119.99.
Supports:
- 118.14 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 117.80 = COP
- 116.99 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.71-118.94.
Resistances:
- 120.38 = .382 retracement
- 120.82 = .50 ret
- 121.27 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-20 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 3, 2011
AUD/USD broke above 1.0268 and now is moving within a potential wave C of a medium term uptrend from 0.9861 (colored light green in the chart). Confirmation of this wave is a breakout above 1.0379. As for subwaves, we have A, B and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave C is developing from 1.0044. Within this wave we have still smaller A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 1.0197. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9663-1.0379-0.9861, 0.9861-1.0218-1.0044, 1.0044-1.0268-1.0197.
Resistances:
- 1.0303 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0335 = COP
- 1.0401 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0421 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0044 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up, it's preferable to try long positions until the price breaks below 1.0197 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (20-25 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-60 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, January 3, 2012
During the first working day of the year the new markets return to their normal condition on Tuesday, this greatly promotes the leading currencies and mostly the American dollar.
The dollar experienced weak trend during first hours of session and fell on all fronts, especially against the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc. The same thing happened to the Australian dollar and to the Canadian dollar.
The news about jobs in Germany, particularly the changes in number of people unemployed for December 2011, triggered the upward movement of the euro, which was accompanied by other major currencies.
Meanwhile, when averaging the European session on Tuesday, the stocks of the old continent showed mixed results. The DAX 30 gained 0.8%, while other major indices fell on the average by 0.6%.
As for the Dow Jones, the index futures were rising opening the week that has left an important gap and it will probably be covered within the next few hours, and at the American session.
Indeed, at 10:00 the publication of the ISM manufacturing in the United States is expected, and at 2:15 the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which took place last month, will be announced.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Wave Analysis of EUR/USD for January 3, 2012
Analysis of the wave marking:
Due to the holidays season yesterday’s session EUR/USD overall wave stance did not alter significantly. Thus the price moved in a very narrow price range above the rate of the 29th figure. Meanwhile the formed wave structure still allows for a possible development of the marked prolonged upside correction as well as a chance for the pair to renew the decline to the next target rate for the 3rd wave (in the 5th) which corresponds to the mark of 1.2760-1.2750. At the same time we should pay attention to that if this target is hit in the nearest future the inner wave marking of the 5th wave in the 3rd would probably need to be slightly adjusted.
The targets of the correctional movement:
1.3023 – 161.8% Fibo
1.3080 – 127.2% Fibo
The targets for the 3rd wave in the 5th:
1.2858 – 261.8% Fibo
General recommendations:
On Tuesday the correction continues amid the decline over the last two days of 2011.
The fact that the price is still within the declining range points at the continuation of the downfalling trends’ part. The current situation is that the inner wave marking of the assumed third wave in the fifth is ambiguous and hardly possible. That is why uncertainty is high regarding not only the direction of the trend but the wave marking of this movement.
The MACD divergence indicates a possible rebound from the current levels in the direction of new lows and in particular to 1.2858, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibo/ on the other hand, the exit from a narrower declining range can complicate the current correction in the direction to 1.3080, that corresponds to 127.2% Fibo.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 4, 2011
GBP/JPY has just developed impulse subwave A (colored magenta in the chart) that is part of impulse wave C of larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71. Now potential corrective subwave B is developing from 118.94. The targets of this wave are Fibonacci retracements of 122.71-118.94.
Resistances:
- 120.38 = .382 retracement
- 120.82 = .50 ret
- 121.27 = .618 ret
- 121.90 = .786 ret
However, if the price reverses to the downside from 120.14, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-118.94-120.14.
Supports:
- 117.81-80 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (45-60 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 4, 2011
AUD/USD finally broke above 1.0379, and now is developing impulse wave C of a medium term uptrend from 0.9861 (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), subwave C is developing from 1.0044. On still smaller levels we have A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave 4 is developing from 1.0386 against the uptrend. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9663-1.0379-0.9861, 0.9861-1.0218-1.0044, 1.0044-1.0268-1.0197, 1.0197-1.0386-1.0322.
Resistances:
- 1.0401 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0421 = OP
- 1.0439 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0511 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0197-1.0386.
Supports:
- 1.0314 = .382 retracement
- 1.0292 = .50 ret
- 1.0269 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up, it's preferable to try long positions until the price breaks below 1.0197 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 5, 2011
GBP/JPY is trading within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart), and within this wave we have corrective subwave B (colored magenta in the chart), that is developing from 118.94. The targets of the potential corrective wave are fibonacci retracements of 122.71-118.94.
Resistances:
- 120.38 = .382 retracement
- 120.82 = .50 ret
- 121.27 = .618 ret
- 121.90 = .786 ret
But if the price reverses to the downside from 120.14, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-118.94-120.14, 120.14-119.54-119.93.
Supports:
- 119.56-54 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 ret
- 119.40 = .618 ret
- 119.33 = objective point (OP)
- 119.20 = .786 ret
- 118.96 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 118.36 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 117.81-80 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 5, 2011
AUD/USD is trading within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend from 0.9861 (colored light green in the chart). In this wave we have A, B and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), subwave C is developing from 1.0044. Within the latter C there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart). And the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0044-1.0386, 1.0197-1.0386, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0304-1.0372.
Immediate supports:
- 1.0292-90 = confluence area of .50 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 1.0269 = .618 ret
- 1.0255 = .382 ret
- 1.0239 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0215 = .50 ret
If the price breaks above 1.0386 and continues moving upwards, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9663-1.0379-0.9861, 0.9861-1.0218-1.0044, 1.0044-1.0386-1.0304.
Resistances:
- 1.0401 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0515 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0577 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
Since the larger wave is now moving up, it's preferable to try long positions until the price breaks below 1.0304 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis for January 5, 2012
A few hours ago the euro hit a new low since September 2010 against the U.S. dollar and pound sterling, rising to a new default versions of European countries.
To the question of Greece, which adjustment plan to prevent total collapse has been developed with a great difficulty and debt problems in Italy and Spain, which must pay increasingly expensive to finance its deficits, France also had to accept increased cost of bond issues on the morning of Thursday. This resulted in the acceleration of the euro fall on all fronts.
Lowering against the pound is remarkable. While its junction with the dollar suffers the vicissitudes logic supply and demand, but not to other currencies as it reflects the general weakness of the single currency.
Thus, the crossing EUR/GBP falls to its lowest since September 9, 2010, and is close to 0.8170, where it has a solid support. And against the yen, the euro is playing lows (at least from its effective date, exactly 10 years). Sure, in 2002, the USD/JPY area exceeded 135, and the euro, newborn was below parity against the dollar. The figures are the same, but times have changed...
The market takes interesting edges in these circumstances. As Europe seeks to demonstrate how bad that is going to all its members, and continues to commit blunders through his troubled and greedy leaders, other countries show a different picture.
Oil, a true reflection of the global economy, does not fall from $100, after a slumber in the range of 80 to $ 90 for much of 2011. And this high value of the barrel is reflected in the Canadian dollar, which represents a nation whose main problem seems to be a resident of the United States, especially when this goes wrong, but it also represents its main advantage in favorable circumstances.
The Loonie's exchange rate against other leading currencies reflects the strength of the Canadian economy, and in all cases the Bank of Canada is closely monitoring its currency, to avoid uncomfortable insights.
Something similar happens in Australia, where the Ozzie mirrors not only the price of an ounce of gold, but also of economic strength based on strong exports to China, a country which has the privilege of having a neighbor.
The final hours ever put more black and white these situations, and the coins show clearly the reality of each country, and in the case of the euro, the entire eurozone.
The bags of the old continent operate at a loss, moderate, but losses to end in some cases exceeding 1.4% on average. The same happens with the Dow Jones index futures, which had started the week with a major increase, leaving a gap that invariably go to cover, bringing down major currencies.
Within minutes you will know the relevant data first year: the ADP survey of job creation in the U.S. in December. The previous talk about 176,000 new private sector jobs compared with 206,000 in November. But these figures are subject to revision, and there is that it should await the publication of the data to take action in the market.
Also know the weekly unemployment requests, at 8:30 Eastern, and the ISM service, another key figure, at 10:00.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis for January 6, 2012
Arrives the key day of the week, the first Friday of the month is known for the December jobs data U.S.A.
And while many celebrate in advance a very good figure, on Thursday after publication of an increase of 325 private jobs, it is desirable to retain cautious.
Moreover, it is believed that the unemployment rate could rise again, after his abrupt and healthy low last month.
What is the truth? We will see in a few hours, promptly at 8:30 Eastern. What is tangible and certain is that the world's largest economy has improved and the employment variable, basic and fundamental.
The market, in the hours prior to the report, show the same behavior every month, virtually no movement, and short-term trends are the same as during the previous day.
Expect strong motion data at the time of employment. In this context, the dollar remains strong against most leading currencies, with emphasis on the intersection EUR / USD, which has a strong downtrend.
Also the British pound has fallen deeper than usually on Thursday, and it acted especially low versus the yen.
At the moment, we only have to wait for the release of employment data, and then see the interpretation thereof by investors on Wall Street. At the opening will be the first reaction, and after noon in New York there will be the definitive trends of the day. In any case, we should remember that, for example, the euro tends to close the day against the dollar in the same area where they traded before the report.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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NATURAL GAS (#NG) Time to Buy January 6, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)
NATURAL GAS
Natural gas futures are trading at $3,014 per million British thermal units during the American session, trading at a very small range, we have a very strong support - 2.937. At this time I recommend you to buy, because the macroeconomic indicators show a possible increase in the price of natural gas.
If you look at the chart, natural gas has left a gap in the week of December 12, there can be a close of that gap before the pair continues its downward trend. Thus we will place short-term in the weekly resistance of 3,383.
On the other hand, the Momentum indicator and range are showing oversold, signaling a possible rebound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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CRUDE OIL (#CL) Buy Long Above 97.90, January 6, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil futures for February delivery are quoted at USD 102.28 per barrel during the American session, retreating by 0.85% from its maximum at 103.71 on Wednesday.
On the weekly chart with the technical analysis, we noticed that the oil maintains its upward trend, although showing signs of overbought, we believe that the trend of increased oil prices will continue, but first must have a reversal at least at the level of 97, 90 dollars per barrel of oil. We should place upward resistance at the next monthly 107.80 dollars per barrel.
Indicator of Momentum is the area of 100 showing a possible correction in the price of oil.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com