InstaForex Wave Analysis - page 94
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 24 / 2011
United States today celebrate the Day of Thanksgiving, so that activity in the U.S. session will see a slightly reduced, the situation of Europe has financial markets on edge.
For the first time, Germany struggled on Wednesday to place debt, while 10-year bonds in the country increased to 2.25% to close the European session.
Rain warnings rating agencies about possible cuts debt ratings on almost all the leading countries of the old continent, while the specialists in the field predict a severe recession in the coming quarters.
The German leader Merkel refuses again to create the so-called Euro bonds, and not without reason: he knows that if this mechanism triggers, Germany will settle back to countries that do not meet their commitments to fiscal deficit, which will increase taxpayer discontent of his country.
However, on one side or another, we do not see any solution to the current crisis without issuing euros, and its placement on the market, besides being used to assist countries that are close to default.
In the medium to long term, if Europe is to maintain the euro as legal tender, cover these debts, taken by the states without any control by paying to the creditor banks, which in turn must take significant losses.
This undoubtedly impact on the price of the single currency, which remains quite strong even amid the crisis, taking advantage of the weak dollar on all fronts.
But there are issues beyond the technical or fundamental analysis is used, have to do with logic: there is no reason for an old continent with a single power that brings together much of the GDP of the region and with countries struggling not to lose social rights acquired since 1945, has a coin almost 50% more expensive than the dollar, with the damage it produces a number of these countries.
For a country like Greece, which can benefit its currency costs represent 1.30 or 1.40 to the dollar? And for Spain or Portugal? All it does is hurt exports, reducing the flow of capital for tourism, and losing external competitiveness.
In our opinion, only when Europe take on your problem with the only viable solution is to devalue the euro through the injection of billions, even at the cost of prestige lost Germany and France, will begin to see an early solution.
Of course, all this will not be free. UK also must accommodate the price of the pound, Swiss franc and the euro will follow the steps, beating long-parity against the dollar. At that time, Europe will again be competitive.
The Euro is suffering in these days a lot of sincerity, which is a strong downward movement, perhaps attenuated, as was said before, by the weak dollar.
But this movement could be deepened, so it would not be unreasonable to see your quote below 1.30 if no sustainable solutions in the short term, which so far seem to be a chimera.
Going into Thursday's session, European exchanges operate with moderate increases of 0.5% gain on average, driven by a positive German IFO report, presented by 106.6 points, just ahead of expectations.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, November 24, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)
EUR/USD
In Asian markets, the euro was near 7-week low against the U.S. dollar, after yesterday's sharp fall. when it was trading at 1.3320. the minimum so far recorded.
At the technical level we can see that the pair. is below its trend line that began on October 4in view of the critical situation, continues in the euro zone. believe that the pair is still highly valued. maybe take a breather until 1.34.60. at this level, we can enter a bearish strategy to the next weekly support around 1.3190, as our short-term goal. and our medium-term objective we will place the minimum of January 2011, around 1.2960 dollars per euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD wave analysis for November 24, 2011
Wave dimension analysis:
After resuming downside movement during yesterday’s Asian session the GBP/USD pair managed to test the 55 figure level by the end of the day. Therefore this decline can be considered as movement within the forming 5th wave in the 5th, in the estimated 3rd (or c). At the same time given the inner wave dimension of the 5th wave and the whole 3rd (or c), the price might decline to the target level near 1.5450. If so, its break will cause the beginning of a quite continuous recovery process, which is also indicted by the MACD divergence.
General conclusion and recommendations:
The pair is quite likely to finish the downside section of the trend, and now we are observing its last waves being formed. The price is in the downside channel, therefore we still can expect downside movement. In case the price escapes the channel this might prove formation od a new upside trend section.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 25, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave C still developing from 1.0343. Within the latter wave C there are also four subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave 4 developing from 0.9663. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0106-0.9663.
Resistances:
- 0.9832 = .382 ret
- 0.9885 = .50 ret
- 0.9937 = .618 ret
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0752-1.0051-1.0343, 1.0343-0.9964-1.0106, 1.0106-0.9663-0.9785.
Supports:
- 0.9657 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9642 = OP
- 0.9605 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9521-11 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9493 = XOP
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 25, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are five subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 developing from 124.22. The wave from 124.22 has four subwaves (colored red in the chart), with potential subwave 4 still developing from 119.31. The targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-122.90-124.22, 124.22-120.82-121.70, 121.70-119.97-120.87.
Supports:
- 119.14 = objective point (OP)
- 118.30 = OP
- 118.07 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.70-119.31.
Resistances:
- 120.22 = .382 retracement
- 120.51 = .50 ret
- 120.79 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Excellent dear thanks for your analysis...
Excellent dear thanks for your analysis...
Fundamental Analysis, November, 25 / 2011
The European debt crisis is on the crest of the wave, and the leaders of major powers do not
succeed in finding a decent output to it.
It mini summits and peaks occur between different prime ministers, with proposals that seek
to unify criteria, although in all cases are rejected by the German Chancellor, Angela
Merkel.
Such is the case for the initiative to create a Eurobond, which has the approval of Merkel,
because its implementation would be supportive to their country with other countries using
the euro as national currency, and generate the unification of the interest rates.
These have been increasing in recent weeks in countries that in principle should not have
major problems, such as France and Holland have risen to records since the inception of the
euro in Spain and Italy.
Indeed, Italy has had to pay on Friday morning, nearly 7.5% of loans to two years, Spain has
similar difficulty.
In this context, the foreign exchange market has a uniform behavior, something unusual in
recent times. The dollar strengthened on all fronts, especially, of course, against the euro
and therefore to the Swiss franc, British pound but also is very weak. Meanwhile, the yen
has left its short-term bullish position, and traded at 77.50 per dollar, a move that could
deepen in the coming hours.
They also fall oil, which traded at 95.06 (WTI) and 106.00 (Brent) at this time. The
currencies linked to it, as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, also suffer paths falls.
In the case of weight, has reached its lowest end of March 2009, thus being more weakened
currency in recent weeks.
Gold also seems to have slowed its upward path, and can not exceed $ 1700 per ounce,
bringing down the Australian dollar, which is approaching its minimum of one month and a
half.
No important data for the U.S. session, the reopening of the NYSE will be a strong
attraction. The Dow Jones index futures traded at the time at 11,160 points, while closing
the Wednesday before the holiday on Thursday, was at 11,257 points. This difference between
the futures and the actual price of the shares is usually covered in the first minutes of
the American session.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Buy Above 0.9630, November 25, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
AUD/USD
The Australian Dollar - U.S. Dollar pair The currency maintained its sliding trend this
morning and is being trade in the narrow range of 0.9712-0.9670. It is likely that the
Australian, goes to the second daily support around 0.9630. a break below this level push to
new lows to the 0.9400 level, so if we look for a rebound on this support, we have a point
of exit below 0.9600. The momentum indicator and range indicator, are showing oversold
levels. Our goal in this exercise as just below the downtrend line. around 0.9785 dollars
per Australian dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for November 25, 2011
Wave dimension analysis:
Yesterday during the whole day the USD/JPY currency pair was trading in a narrow price range
above the 77 figure level. At the same time, despite low market activity the price carried
on forming the inner wave structure of the b wave within the estimated 4th wave of the whole
trend downside section initiated October 31. If so, after forming this b wave the currency
pair will resume growth to the local high of Wednesday or to the correction level 50.0%
(77.70).
General conclusion and trading recommendations:
At the moment the yen is demonstrating a weak movement within the b wave of the upside trend
section. If so, this decline can last up to the target level 76.80 or Fibonacci 11.4% level.
After observing the b wave we should expect a resumption of the upside movement to the
correction level 77.68 or Fibonacci 50.0% level.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 28, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are five subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) and potential corrective subwave A is developing from 119.31. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.70-119.31, 125.63-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-120.40-119.82.
Resistances:
- 120.49-51 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 retracement
- 120.79 = .618 ret
- 120.91 = objective point (OP)
- 121.58 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 119.31 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 28, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with corrective subwave 4 still developing from 0.9663. Within the latter wave 4 there are also three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C developing from 0.9666. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0343-0.9663, and expansions off 0.9663-0.9785-0.9666, 0.9666-0.9773-0.9683.
Resistances:
- 0.9923 = .382 retracement
- 0.9963 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9985 = SXOP
- 1.0003 = .50 ret
If the pair reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9963 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (50-65 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/CHF Ichimoku technical analysis for November 28, 2011
H4
Last Friday the bulls returned to the GBP/CHF market and quickly recovered the pair to the upper limit of the 4-hour Ichimoku Cloud.
However, the Senkou Span did not let them go further and the week was closed inside the Kumo.
Nevertheless the short-term situation switched in favour of the buyers – the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen formed a Gold cross (5) that is likely to provide support to the bulls in the nearest time.
Therefore in the nearest term we can expect the price to break the upper limit of the Cloud and fixate in a positive area. In case it succeeds this will denote the end of the correction phase on the market and resumption of the major positive trend.
H1
The situation changed in favour of the bulls in the 1-hour timeframe as well. As a result of last Friday’s active recovery the price crossed quite a wide range of the Ichimoku Cloud and appeared in a positive area.
At the moment there is a consolidation on the market above the upper limit of the Cloud.
Obviously the recovery will be continued as the Kumo changed its character to the upside and the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen formed a Gold cross (5) applying by now.
Besides, the Chinkou Span is likely to leave the overbought zone in the nearest time.
Therefore during today’s trading session the Friday’s highs can be refreshed. The nearest target is 1.4470.
Performed by Vadim Idrisov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 28 - 30, November/ 01- 02 December, 2011
We have two graphs, one weekly and one monthly. The strategy we should do is buy the
supports S1, (we must be cautious because if the market is bearish try to fall, until weekly
support S2) S2, (at this level there is greater probability that the price rebound, at least
to the weekly S1.) S3 (severe long-term strategy with the objective of take profit, to the
weekly pivot point.) on the other side. The same applies when a market is bullish expect the
levels of R1, R2, R3 to sell and take advantage of the price correction.
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0276
Weekly - R2 = 1.0144
Weekly - R1 = 0.9926
Weekly Pivot = 0.9794
Weekly - S1 = 0.9576
Weekly - S2 = 0.9444
Weekly - S3 = 0.9226
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.2425
Monthly - R2 = 1.1588
Monthly - R1 = 1.1060
Monthly Pivot = 1.0223
Monthly - S1 = 0.9695
Monthly - S2 = 0.8858
Monthly - S3 = 0.8330
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 28 - 30, November/ 01- 02 December, 2011
We have two graphs, one weekly and one monthly. The strategy we should do is buy the
supports S1, (we must be cautious because if the market is bearish try to fall, until weekly
support S2) S2, (at this level there is greater probability that the price rebound, at least
to the weekly S1.) S3 (severe long-term strategy with the objective of take profit, to the
weekly pivot point.) on the other side. The same applies when a market is bullish expect the
levels of R1, R2, R3 to sell and take advantage of the price correction.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0834
Weekly - R2 = 1.0678
Weekly - R1 = 1.0581
Weekly Pivot = 1.0425
Weekly - S1 = 1.0328
Weekly - S2 = 1.0172
Weekly - S3 = 1.0075
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1243
Monthly - R2 = 1.0949
Monthly - R1 = 1.0478
Monthly Pivot = 1.0184
Monthly - S1 = 0.9713
Monthly - S2 = 0.9419
Monthly - S3 = 0.8948
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 29, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 119.31. Within the latter there are two subwaves (colored red in the chart) and corrective subwave B is developing from 121.62. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 125.63-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-121.62-120.70.
Resistances:
- 121.72 = .382 retracement
- 122.13 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.47 = .50 ret
- 123.01 = objective point (OP)
- 123.22 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.32-121.62, 119.82-121.62.
Supports:
- 120.74-72 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 120.51-47 = confluence area of .618 and .50 ret
- 120.19 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com