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USD/CAD Elliott wave count for May 1, 2012
USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair has finished developing of the 3 wave (coloured blue) and start pushing higher for the 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe the upward movement toward 0.9825 level (50 EMA Resistance). Therefore during the New York session we could observe price above 200EMA. At the end of the New York session we could see the price reaching new daily high at 0.9893 level.Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a sideways move. We are expecting to see price higher today in a New York session for the end of the 4 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with simple measuring the first wave range; the First Take Profit at 0.9825 (61.8% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 0.9779 (100% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 0.9927. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speaks, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks and CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair and Pianalto’s speech that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9765 (S2) 0.9800 (S1) 0.9821 (PP) 0.9856 (R1) 0.9891 (R2) 0.9912 (R3) 0.9947
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9900 with Stop Loss at 0.9927, Take Profit 1 at 0.9825 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9779 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count for May 1, 2012
AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair has started developing corrective wave 2 (coloured pink). During the European session we could observe the descending movement towards 1.0425 level (50 EMA Support). Therefore during the New York session the price continues the bearish mood and the price has reached its low at 1.0405 level. We can consider this move as end of (A) (coloured black) of the bigger 2 wave (Coloured pink). In late New York the AUD/USD pair started pushing higher and the price reached the 1.0430 level. We can consider this move as end of (B) wave.Today during the Asian and European session we could observe the strong bearish mood in this major and price drop to the 1.0303 level. Presently we can observe the end of 2 wave (coloured pink) and start of the 3 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0246-1.0473-1.02956); the First Take Profit at 1.0520 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0660 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0246. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speaks, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks and FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair and Pianalto’s speech that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0372 (S2) 1.0396 (S1) 1.0411 (PP) 1.0435 (R1) 1.0459 (R2) 1.0474 (R3) 1.0498
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0350 with Stop Loss at 1.0246, Take Profit 1 at 1.0520 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0660 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, for May 1, 2012
Standing in line with last month’s announcement the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rates from 4 to 3.75% early
this morning resulting in significant downward movement of the local currency – the Australian dollar.
The slowdown in the growth of China's economy, Australia's main market including the low inflation made the BRA take a step
that investors have been waiting for a long time, given that the local reference rate was and still is the highest of the
major central banks.
Moreover the yen continues its upward trend on all fronts and reached a new high since February 22 during the last hours
against the dollar. The targets for the downward movement which naturally favor the JPY are located in the 79.10 area
corresponding to 61.8% of the rally 76.01 / 84.14.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar appears to stop its fall after the publication of an unfavorable data on GDP for the first
quarter. Against all odds the measurement showed a decrease of 0.2% cancelling the loonie highs of last September reached
in the recent days. The Canadian currency is expected to continue its downward trend in coming days and even break the
deadlock against the dollar which is a pivots point for several weeks.
Faced with these scenarios the euro is about to reach 1.32, taking into account also that the majority of European
financial markets are closed due to the Labor Day. Particularly striking is the strength of the single currency in these
times. The debt crisis in several countries led by Spain whose problem of unemployment and recession has no output in the
short term impacts the exchange rate of the euro. Considering all this there is a question: should we expect the
announcement on interest rate cuts? On Thursday the ECB President, Mario Draghi, announced the monetary policy of the
state.
In this regard, consider that recent interest rate movements were in defense of southern Europe affected by crisis that has
recently reached its peak. But Germany, the Europe's engine continues to reap near-record economic figures and in fight the
inflation in this country. The ECB for a second time in a row raised the interest rate. In two days we will know the
further information. The country continues drawing attention to the currency affected on all fronts.
The pound sterling is more relieved although in the last hour has shown signs of weakness against the dollar by breaking
the uptrend line crossing GBP / USD. Anyway, the British is not likely to be affected and could recover quickly from the
movement this morning caused mainly by the UK manufacturing PMI.
As to the U.S. session on Tuesday is expected ISM manufacturing at 10:00 Eastern which is the most important news of the
day.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Around Bearish Trendline - May 01, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
The EUR/USD pair is about to reach 1.32. It is necessary to consider the speech of ECB president Mario Draghi announced the
monetary policy of the state on Thursday. This may be decisive for the future of the Euro.
In technical terms the euro is trading far below the downtrend line, but according to Momentum indicators and Range
provides the bearish signals and a possible imminent correcion. On the other hand if the euro would break the downtrend
line and the negotiation of today closed above the 1.3280 level. This fact points that the euro continued its upward trend
to 1.3370; therefore selling is recommended at 1.3240 level.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for May 1
Wave marking analysis:
Due to the yesterday’s weak trades the EUR/USD pair has failed to define its further movement. As a result the pair
remained within the range of 1.3200 – 1.3260 for the whole day. Considering the corrective scenario the current wave
structure still allows the euro to reach the target levels located in the area of 1.3300-1.3345. At the same time the wave
E of the current upward correction looks as the complex one confirming the assumption that yesterday’s decline of quotes
will continue towards the April’s low (1.3000).
Targets for resumption of the descending part of the trend within the wave 3 or C:
1.3087 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
1.3039 – 11.4% of Fibonacci
Targets for the wave E in 2 or B (complication of the corrective part of the trend):
1.3295 – 76.4% of Fibonacci
1.3343 – 88.6% of Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The recent growth of quotes can be considered as a quite complicated wave 2 or B. The present ascending movement within the
wave E has targets 1.3295 and 1.3343 corresponding to 76.4% and 88.6% of Fibonacci respectively. MACD divergence points at
possible reversal of quotes for the benefit of the dollar in the nearest future as the wave 2 or B are nearly finished.
Nevertheless. The correction is getting more and more complicated every day. This fact can result in transformation of the
whole structure into impulse one and therefore, the whole wave marking will need corrections. If the current marking is
true, the wave 3 or C with targets seen at 1.3087 and 1.3039 will begin its formation almost from the present points.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/CAD Elliott wave count for May 3, 2012
USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading upwards near the end of 4 wave. During the European session we observed ascending movement towards the 0.9890 level. Therefore, during the New York session we saw the continuation of the bullish mood and the price reached 5-day high at the 0.9903 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 4 wave (coloured blue). The USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and we watched a downward move in the second half of the New York session. Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair was descending towards the 0.9845 level. We expect to see price under the 0.9800 level today.
In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring the first wave range; the First Take Profit at 0.9809 (78.6% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 0.9783 (100% of wave 1). As Stop Loss we can use the resistance level at 0.9885. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Prelim. Non-farm Productivity q/q, Prelim. Unit Labour Costs q/q, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speech and FOMC Member Lockhart Speech that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9817 (S2) 0.9838 (S1) 0.9851 (PP) 0.9872 (R1) 0.9893 (R2) 0.9906 (R3) 0.9927
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9840 with Stop Loss at 0.9885, Take Profit 1 at 0.9809 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9783 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count for May 3, 2012
AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move. During the European session we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.0320 level. Therefore during the early New York session the price continued trading in a bearish mood and reached the 1.0283 level. So AUD/USD did not manage to hold this level in a second half of the New York, and we could observe price to retrace to 50 EMA resistance. Today during the Asian session we could observe the price under the 1.0300 level again. We are awaiting to see it higher soon.
Presently we can see the end of the wave 2 (coloured pink). In accordance with our wave rules, taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0246-1.0473-1.0274); the First Take Profit at 1.0504 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0644 (161.8% of wave 1). As Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0246. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Prelim. Non-farm Productivity q/q, Prelim. Unit Labour Costs q/q, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speech and FOMC Member Lockhart Speech, that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0254 (S2) 1.0280 (S1) 1.0297 (PP) 1.0324 (R1) 1.0350 (R2) 1.0367 (R3) 1.0394
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0320 with Stop Loss at 1.0246, Take Profit 1 at 1.0504 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0644 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 3, 2012
GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B of medium term uptrend from 127.04 (royal blue in the chart). Within this wave we have two subwaves (magenta in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B is developing from 129.02. Within it there are two subwaves (red in the chart), and subwave B is developing from 130.71.
Now the targets above the current price are Fibonacci expansions off 127.04-131.75-129.02, 129.02-130.71-129.42.
Resistances:
- 131.11 = objective point (OP)
- 131.93 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.15 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.04-131.75, and expansions off 131.75-129.02-130.71.
Supports:
- 129.02 = COP
- 128.84 = .618 retracement
- 127.98 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (35-55 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 10, 2012
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave A of medium term downtrend from 131.75 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 130.71. Within it there are also three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 129.51.
The targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 131.75-129.02-130.71, 130.71-128.34-129.51, 129.51-127.76-128.75.
Supports:
- 127.67 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 127.14 = objective point (OP)
- 127.00 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.71-127.76, 131.75-127.76.
Resistances:
- 128.89 = .382 retracement
- 129.24-28 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 129.58 = .618 ret
- 129.76 = .50 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (25-35 pips above the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 10, 2012
AUD/USD is developing impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend. Within this wave there are five subwaves (red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave A of A-B-C cycle is developing against the downtrend from 1.0020. Within this wave there are three subwaves (yellow in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 1.0033.
The targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0473-1.0020, 1.0219-1.0020, and expansions off 1.0020-1.0085-1.0033.
Resistances:
- 1.0120 = .50 retracement
- 1.0138-43 = expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret
- 1.0193 = .382 ret
- 1.0203 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0246 = .50 ret
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0473-1.0304-1.0354, 1.0354-1.0110-1.0219.
Supports:
- 0.9975 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9912 = SXOP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 15, 2011
The AUD/USD pair is developing an impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of the medium term downtrend comprising four subwaves (magenta in the chart) and a potential corrective subwave 4 developing from 1.0944.
Presently the immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0219-0.9944, 1.0142-0.9944.
Resistances:
- 1.0020 = .382 retracement
- 1.0043-49 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 1.0066 = .618 ret
- 1.0082 = .50 ret
If the downtrend resumes, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions of 1.0473-1.0110-1.0219, 1.0219-1.0020-1.0142.
Supports:
- 0.9943 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9856 = OP
- 0.9820 = expanded objective point (XOP)
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices as well); consider the possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/CAD Elliott wave count for March 15, 2012
USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday during the European session we could observe the ascending movement towards the 1.0050 level. We can consider this movement as the end of the 1 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair start pushing lower towards the 1.0012 level (100 EMA support). Having tested this level the USD/CAD pair pushed slightly higher and we could observe the price back at 1.0040. Today during the Asian session we could observe the continuation of the bearish mood and price touching 0.9993 level. We can consider this move as the end of the wave 2 (coloured blue). Presently we are in the 3 impulsive wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9953-1.0050-0.9993) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0128 (161.8% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0165 (200% of wave 1). The Invalidation point at 0.9954 level can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Core CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, CPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases and Business Inventories m/m that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9964 (S2) 0.9987 (S1) 1.0002 (PP) 1.0026 (R1) 1.0049 (R2) 1.0064 (R3) 1.0088
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0020 with Stop Loss at 0.9954, Take Profit 1 at 1.0128 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0165 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com