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USD/CAD Elliott wave count for April 18, 2012
USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading within the downward movement. During the European session we could observe the price reaching daily high at 1.0011 level. We can consider this move as end of wave 2 (coloured blue). Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair start falling rapidly after bad Housing Starts, we could observe price testing 0.9865 support level. We can consider this move as wave 3 (coloured blue).Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair was developing 4 wave and we are expecting to see price in a bearish mood today for 5 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0049-0.9925-1.0032); the Take Profit at 0.9832 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the resistance level at 0.9925.Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the USD Crude Oil Inventories and CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report, BOC Press Conference that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9778 (S2) 0.9834 (S1) 0.9869 (PP) 0.9925 (R1) 0.9981 (R2) 1.0016 (R3) 1.0072
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9880 with Stop Loss at 09925 and Take Profit at 0.9832 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 18, 2012
The GBP/JPY pair is developing a potential corrective wave 4 of the medium term downtrend from 127.04 (light green in the chart) comrising three subwaves (orange red in the chart) and an impulse subwave С developing from 127.51.
Now the upside targets are Fibonacci retracements of 133.32-127.04 and expansions of 127.04-128.03-127.51, 127.51-128.85-128.32.
Resistances:
- 129.66 = objective point (OP)
- 130.10 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 130.18 = .50 retracement
- 130.49 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 130.92 = .618 ret
If the downtrend resumes its movement, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the upper wave from 127.04 - this wave is not developed yet, so support levels are not available.
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices). Watch for the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 18, 2012
The AUD/USD pair is developing the potential impulse wave C of the medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0226. Within this wave there are three subwaves (magenta in the chart) and a potential impulse subwave C developing from 1.0304. Within this wave we have subwaves A, and B (orange red in the chart); a subwave B is developing from 1.0417.
Presently the downside targets are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0226-1.0451, 1.0304-1.0417 and expansions of 1.0451-1.0304-1.0417.
Supports:
- 1.0374 = .382 retracement
- 1.0360 = .50 ret
- 1.0347 = .618 ret
- 1.0326 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0312 = .618 ret
- 1.0270 = objective point (OP)
If the price keeps moving upwards, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0636-1.0226 and expansions of 1.0226-1.0451-1.0304.
Resistances:
- 1.0443 = COP
- 1.0479 = .618 ret
- 1.0529 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving upwards, so it is prefereable to go long when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-40 pips below the current prices). Consider the possibilities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/JPY Wave Analysis for April 18, 2012
Wave marking analysis:
In course of yesterday’s trades the USD/JPY pair continued the slow rebound from the newly reached high 80.30. Therefore, we can suppose that the wave C of the whole descending correction developing since March 21 has completed the formation of its inner wave structure. If that is true, then the yesterday’s ascending movement will continue towards the point 81.50 or level of the figure 82. At the same time the wave 3 in C is likely to become more complicated and the price in turn will reach the point 79.00.
Targets for the option with continuation and further complication of the descending correction or its transformation into downside impulse movement:
79.91 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci
Targets for the option with the resumption or beginning of the new impulse upward movement:
80.97 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
81.27 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment it is quite possible to resume the formation of the ascending part of the trend with target seen in the area of figure 85. Presently we can see the descent within the wave 4 of the global ascending trend. The current correction has downside targets at level 76.91 which is equal to 127.2% according to Fibonacci. Every day the correction is getting more and more complicated and, therefore, there are not so many chances to resume the uprising part of the trend. If the quotes move below the point 80.50, it will be almost impossible to rise towards the point 85.00.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 18, 2012
General situation:
On April 18, the USD/CHF pair remains within the Ichimoku Cloud resulting in formation of the signal for Sell-deals. At the same time it does not stimulate any trading strategy. The current signal for Sell-deals is confirmed and weak, as Chinkou Span is fixed above the price chart and the price has entered the Ichimoku Cloud. That is the reason why the targets for downside movement are seen at the first support level 0.9042 though it is recommended to trade at this level only when the current signal has strengthened. In case this level has been passed through, the new target for bearish trading – the second support level 0.8993 – will be available. The downward movement remains the same as long as the price is lower than the Kijun-Sen line (0.9170). While bearish trading below this line it is recommended to place Stop Loss. If the price goes higher than this line, the signal for Sell-deals will weaken and the further elaboration of the descending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicating the bearish mood on the USD/CHF market. Bollinger Bands indicates the current sideways movement; lines are restricted and directed sideways that is the reason why it is better to refrain from opening any positions. MACD has reversed to upwards pointing at the current ascending movement of the price. Nevertheless, considering the general picture, the situation is not very favorable for trading.
Trading recommendations:
On the USD/CHF market is recommended to open short positions with first target seen at the 0.9042 level but only when the price is fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. When this level has been passed through, it is recommended to consider the 0.8993 level for Sell-deals. Stop Loss is to be placed above 0.9170 and if this line goes downwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. While opening the short positions MACD is to be directed downwards. With 50-60 pips of profit, Stop Loss can be placed into the zero area. Take Profits can be placed a bit higher than the target levels (10-15 pips approximately). In general the situation for trading is considered as not positive.
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.
Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
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Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 19, 2012
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave A of medium term uptrend from 127.04 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have five subwaves (orange red in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 129.05.
Now the targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 133.32-127.04, and expansions off 127.51-129.66-129.05, 129.05-130.38-130.03.
Resistances:
- 130.85 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.92 = .618 ret
- 131.20 = objective point (OP)
- 131.36 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 127.04 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 19, 2012
AUD/USD is developing potential impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0226. Within this wave there are three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and potential impulse subwave C is developing from 1.0304. Within this wave we have subwaves A, and B (orange red in the chart), and subwave B is developing from 1.0417. Within the latter we have subwaves A, B, and potential C (orange red in the chart) developing from 1.0387.
Now the targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0451-1.0304-1.0417, 1.0417-1.0340-1.0387.
Supports:
- 1.0339 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0326 = COP
- 1.0310 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0270 = OP
- 1.0262 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps moving up, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0636-1.0226, and expansions off 1.0226-1.0451-1.0304, 1.0304-1.0417-1.0340.
Resistances:
- 1.0410 = COP
- 1.0443 = COP
- 1.0453 = OP
- 1.0479 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to go long when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL
USD/CAD Elliott wave count for April 19, 2012
USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading within the sideways movement developing 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe the price starting in a descending movement towards 0.9880. We can consider this move as wave B (coloured pink) of the bigger 4 wave, therefore during the session in New York we could observe the bullish mood in the USD/CAD pair that brought this major to the 0.9915 level (wave C), the major did not manage to hold this level and price fell back to 0.9882 (wave D). At the end of the session in New York we could observe the price touching the 0.9924 level (50EMA resistance). We can consider this move as the end of triangle in a 4 wave. Today the USD/CAD pair has started in a bearish mood and we could observe the price to return to the 0.9885 level. Presently we can observe the developing of the 5 wave of the bigger 3 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 261.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9923-0.9902-13); the First Take Profit at 0.9870 (200% of wave 1) and second Take Profit at 0.9857 (261.8% of wave 1). As Stop Loss the resistance point at 0.9900 can be used. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and G20 Meetings that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9863 (S2) 0.9879 (S1) 0.9889 (PP) 0.9905 (R1) 0.9921 (R2) 0.9931 (R3) 0.9947
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9880 with Stop Loss at 0.9900, Take Profit 1 at 0.9870 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9857 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
EUR/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 23-27, 2012
The pivots points chart for the EUR / USD pair for this week are placed in accordance with highs and lows and the weekly price close of the pair. This chart will enable you to place Take Profits or Stop Losses. These pivot levels can be considered as some sort of trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way. In particular, it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3529
Weekly - R2 = 1.3378
Weekly - R1 = 1.3297
Weekly Pivot = 1.3146
Weekly - S1 = 1.3065
Weekly - S2 = 1.2914
Weekly - S3 = 1.2833
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3865
Monthly - R2 = 1.3625
Monthly - R1 = 1.3483
Monthly Pivot = 1.3243
Monthly - S1 = 1.3101
Monthly - S2 = 1.2861
Monthly - S3 = 1.2719
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 23-27, 2012
The pivot points chart for the GBP / USD pair for this week indicates that pivot points are set according to the weekly highs and lows of the pair as well as the close price. This chart will enable you to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These pivot levels can serve as a trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it can be a good strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way. Pariculary it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6568
Weekly - R2 = 1.6358
Weekly - R1 = 1.6239
Weekly Pivot = 1.6029
Weekly - S1 = 1.5910
Weekly - S2 = 1.5700
Weekly - S3 = 1.5581
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6601
Monthly - R2 = 1.6318
Monthly - R1 = 1.6167
Monthly Pivot = 1.5884
Monthly - S1 = 1.5733
Monthly - S2 = 1.5450
Monthly - S3 = 1.5299
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 23 - 27, 2012
The pivot points chart for the AUD /USD pair for this week shows that pivot points are placed according to the highs and lows of the pair and the weekly closure rice. This chart will enable you to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are considered as some sort of trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a reasonable strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise by opening long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0542
Weekly - R2 = 1.0480
Weekly - R1 = 1.0429
Weekly Pivot = 1.0367
Weekly - S1 = 1.0316
Weekly - S2 = 1.0254
Weekly - S3 = 1.0203
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1186
Monthly - R2 = 1.1001
Monthly - R1 = 1.0673
Monthly Pivot = 1.0488
Monthly - S1 = 1.0160
Monthly - S2 = 0.9975
Monthly - S3 = 0.9647
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 23 - 27, 2012
The weekly pivots chart for the USD / JPY indicate that pivot points are placed according to the maximum and minimum quotes and the weekly closure of the pair. This chart will enable to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are some sort of a trading map that will allow you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore, it is recommended to open the short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as target, it may be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise: it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 83.57
Weekly - R2 = 82.67
Weekly - R1 = 82.09
Weekly Pivot = 81.19
Weekly - S1 = 80.61
Weekly - S2 = 79.71
Weekly - S3 = 79.13
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 88.08
Monthly - R2 = 85.13
Monthly - R1 = 84.49
Monthly Pivot = 82.54
Monthly - S1 = 80.90
Monthly - S2 = 78.95
Monthly - S3 = 77.31
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 23, 2012
General situation:
On April 23 the USD/CHF pair has successfully left the sideways movement. The rate has fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards. The current signal for Sell-deals is confirmed and strong, as the Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. That is the reason why targets for descending movement are seen at the first support level 0.9031. In case this level has been overcome, the new target for bearish trade – the second support level 0.8973 – will be available. The descending movement remains the same as long as the price is below the Kijun-Sen (0.9145). While bullish trading below this line it is recommended to place the Stop Loss. In case the price passes this line through, the signal for Sell-deals will weaken and the further elaboration of the descending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for bearish mood on the USD/CHF market. Bollinger Bands indicates the beginning of the descending movement; lines are expanded and directed downwards, so options with short positions are recommended. MACD has reversed to downwards, pointing at current downside movement of the price. Therefore, presently it is possible to remain short. If the indicator reverses to upwards, this will indicate the possible beginning of the correction.
Trading recommendations:
On the USD/CHF market it is recommended to consider short positions with first targets seen at the 0.9031 level. If the price passes this level through, the point 0. 8973 is to be considered as the next target. Stop Loss is to be placed above the point 0.9145 and, in case this line goes higher, it will be possible to place the Stop Loss after it. When the MACD reverses to upwards, it will be possible to reduce short positions manually. With 50-60 pips of profit, Stop Loss can be placed to the zero area. Take Profits are to be placed a bit higher than the target levels (10-15 pips approximately).
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.
Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Analyst of the Year contest
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/MXN Elliott wave count for April 23, 2012
USD/MXN Elliott Wave
Last week the USD/MXN pair has finished the development of the wave 1 and 2 (coloured blue) of the bigger (1) wave (coloured green). Presently we can observe the development of the wave 3 (coloured blue). During the Friday's European session the USD/MXN pair has started the descending movement towards the 13.140 level (100EMA). Therefore, during the New York session we could observe the price below 200EMA support. We can consider this move as the end of wave 1 of the bigger 3 wave. Today during the Asian session the USD/MXN pair started a bullish mood and we could observe the price back to 100EMA resistance around 13.140.We are expecting to see end of wave 2 of the bigger wave 3 around 13.195 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (13.287-13.047-13.265). Take Profit 1 at 13.033(100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 12.886 (161.8% of wave 1). As Stop Loss the invalidation point at 13.287 can be used.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 12.9989 (S2) 13.0526 (S1) 13.0858 (PP) 13.1395 (R1) 13.1932 (R2) 13.2264 (R3) 13.2801
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 13.140 with Stop Loss at 13.287, Take Profit 1 at 13.033 and Take Profit 2 at 12.886 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 23, 2012
The AUD/USD pair is developing a potential impulse wave C of the medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0226. Inside this wave we have three subwaves (royal blue in the chart) and a potential impulse subwave C developing from 1.0304 comprising three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and a potential impulse subwave C developing from 1.0309.
Now the immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0636-1.0226 and expansions of 1.0226-1.0451-1.0304, 1.0304-1.0417-1.0309.
Resistances:
- 1.0422 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0443 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0479 = .618 ret
- 1.0479 = expanded objective point (XOP)
The downside targets are Fibonacci expansions of 1.0451-1.0304-1.0417, 1.0417-1.0309-1.0383.
Supports:
- 1.0316 = COP
- 1.0275-70 = confluence area of two OP's
- 1.0208 = XOP
- 1.0179 = XOP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving upwards, so it is prefereable to go long when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-20 pips below the current prices). Consider the possibilities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com