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USD/CAD Elliott wave count for March 16, 2012
Market Overview
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading in the downward movement. During the European session the major started the descending movement towards the 0.9915 level.Therefore, in the eraly New York session we could observe the upward movement towards the 0.9948 level before the continuation of the bearish mood.The USD/CAD pair finished the trading day at daily low at 0.9918 level.Today during the early Asian session we could observe the bullish movement to the 0.9940 line. Today the USD/CAD pair is expected to test 1.0000 level. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the USD Core CPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and CAD Foreign Securities Purchases, Manufacturing Sales m/m that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9882 (S2) 0.9898 (S1) 0.9908 (PP) 0.9925 (R1) 0.9941 (R2) 0.9951 (R3) 0.9968
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD has finished the wave 1 of the bigger C wave in the point 0.9946 and wave 2 in the point 0.9871. Presently we can observe the wave 3. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 138.2 or 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with the help of Fibonacci retracement (0.9872-0.9946-0.9871) with first Take Profit at level 0.9984 (138.2% of the wave (1)) and second Take Profit at 1.0002 (161.8% of the wave (1)). For Stop Loss we can use 0.9905 support level.
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long position at levels 0.9940 with Stop Loss at 0.9905, Take Profit at 0.9984 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0002 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 16, 2011
The GBP/JPY pair is developing the wave A of the medium term uptrend from the point 126.48 (royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (red in the chart) and a potential corrective subwave 4 developing from 131.65.
Now the downside targets are Fibonacci retracements of 126.48-131.65.
Supports:
- 129.68 = .382 retracement
- 129.07 = .50 ret
- 128.45 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the movement and the price breaks above 131.65, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions 126.48-129.69-128.11, 128.11-131.65-130.15.
Resistances:
- 132.34 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 133.30 = expanded objective point (XOP)
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving upwards, so it is recommended to open the long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-50 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities of long positions at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 16, 2011
The AUD/USD pair is developing the potential corrective wave B of the medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0856 comprising three subwaves (magenta in the chart). The potential subwave A is developing against the downtrend from 1.0423.
Now the upside targets are Fibonacci retracements 1.0856-1.0423, 1.0669-1.0423 and expansions 1.0423-1.0554-1.0509.
Resistances:
- 1.0575 = .618 retracement
- 1.0588-90 = confluence area of .382 ret and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0640 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 ret
- 1.0691 = .618 ret
If the downtrend resumes its movement, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements 0.9861-1.0856, and expansions 1.0856-1.0509-1.0669, 1.0669-1.0423-1.0554.
Supports:
- 1.0402 = COP
- 1.0358 = .50 ret
- 1.0322 = OP
- 1.0303 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving downwards, so it is better to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices). Consider the possibilities of short positions at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/CAD Elliott wave count for March 19, 2012
Market Overview
On Friday during the European session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a upward trend and reached resistance level 0.9940. During the New York session the USD/CAD pair pushed 40 pips lower before the price continued the movement within the bullish mood. The USD/CAD pair finished Friday's deals at 0.9918 level. Today in the early Asian session we could observe the USD/CAD pair trading in the bullish mood.Today the USD/CAD pair is expected to test 0.9950 level.Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Wholesale Sales m/m that could affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9878 (S2) 0.9894 (S1) 0.9903 (PP) 0.9918 (R1) 0.9934 (R2) 0.9943 (R3) 0.9958
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair has finished the wave 1 (colored pink) of the bigger C wave (colored blue) in the point 0.9946 and wave 2 (colored pink) in the point 0.9880. Presently we can observe the extended wave 3 (colored pink). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with help of Fibonacci extension (0.9871-0.9946-0.9880) with first Take Profit at level 0.9984 (138.2% of the wave 1) and second Take Profit at 1.0000 (161.8% of the wave 3). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at level 0.9871.
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long position at levels 0.9930 with Stop Loss at 0.9871, Take Profit at 0.9984 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0000 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 19, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A of medium term uptrend from 126.48 (royal blue in the chart). Within this wave we have five subwaves (red in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 130.15.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 126.48-129.69-128.11, 128.11-131.65-130.15, 130.15-131.31-130.85.
Resistances:
- 132.34 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.73 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 133.30 = XOP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 130.15 - this wave is not developed, so no supports are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 19, 2011
AUD/USD is developing potential corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0856. Within this wave there are subwaves A, and B (royal blue in the chart). Corrective subwave B is developing from 1.0423. Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0856-1.0423, and expansions off 1.0423-1.0554-1.0509.
Resistances:
- 1.0640 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 retracement
- 1.0691 = .618 ret
- 1.0721 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9861-1.0856, 1.0423-1.0613.
Supports:
- 1.0540 = .382 ret
- 1.0518 = .50 ret
- 1.0496 = .618 ret
- 1.0358 = .50 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to go long when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities to go long at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
EUR/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for March 19 - 23, 2012
The pivot points of the EUR /USD for this week are traced according to the following table shown below. The weekly chart offers possible points or areas of support or resitance levels. This chart will help you to place the prospect Take profits or Stop losses. These pivot levels are considered as a trading map, so you will know beforehand about the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the level R1 and long positions at the level S1. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be considered as a viable strategy for swing trading. The other way of working with this strategy is to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3429
Weekly - R2 = 1.3309
Weekly - R1 = 1.3242
Weekly Pivot = 1.3122
Weekly - S1 = 1.3055
Weekly - S2 = 1.2935
Weekly - S3 = 1.2868
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4058
Monthly - R2 = 1.3772
Monthly - R1 = 1.3547
Monthly Pivot = 1.3261
Monthly - S1 = 1.3036
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2525
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for March 19 - 23, 2012
The pivot points of the GBP / USD for this week are traced according to the following table shown below. The weekly chart offers availible points or areas of support or resitance levels. This chart will allow you to make decisions concerning the placement of Take profit or Stop loss orders. These pivot levels are considered as a trading map, so you will know beforehand about the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the level R1 and long positions at the level S1. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a viable strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise: it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.
_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6193
Weekly - R2 = 1.6027
Weekly - R1 = 1.5935
Weekly Pivot = 1.5769
Weekly - S1 = 1.5677
Weekly - S2 = 1.5511
Weekly - S3 = 1.5419
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6411
Monthly - R2 = 1.6202
Monthly - R1 = 1.6061
Monthly Pivot = 1.5852
Monthly - S1 = 1.5711
Monthly - S2 = 1.5502
Monthly - S3 = 1.5361
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for March19 - 23, 2012
The pivot points of the USD / JPY for this week are defined according to the following table shown below. The weekly chart indicates prospect points or areas of support or resitance levels. This chart will enable to define the best places for Take profits or Stop loss orders. These pivot levels serve as a trading map, so you will know beforehand about the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the level R1 and long positions at the level S1. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may turn to be a viable strategy for swing trading. Otherwise it will be possible to use this strategy by opening long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 86.62
Weekly - R2 = 85.39
Weekly - R1 = 84.41
Weekly Pivot = 83.18
Weekly - S1 = 82.20
Weekly - S2 = 80.97
Weekly - S3 = 79.99
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 88.82
Monthly - R2 = 85.23
Monthly - R1 = 83.19
Monthly Pivot = 79.60
Monthly - S1 = 77.56
Monthly - S2 = 0.972
Monthly - S3 = 0.9605
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for March 19 - 23, 2012
The pivot points of the AUD / USD pair for this week are traced according to the following table shown below. The weekly chart offers possible points or areas of support or resitance levels. This chart will help you to place Take profits or Stop loss orders. These pivot levels are considered as a trading map, so you will know beforehand about the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore, it is recommended to open the short positions at the level R1 and long positions at the level S1. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a viable strategy for swing trading. The other way of working with this strategy is to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0824
Weekly - R2 = 1.0711
Weekly - R1 = 1.0650
Weekly Pivot = 1.0537
Weekly - S1 = 1.0476
Weekly - S2 = 1.0363
Weekly - S3 = 1.0302
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1155
Monthly - R2 = 1.1006
Monthly - R1 = 1.0868
Monthly Pivot = 1.0719
Monthly - S1 = 1.0581
Monthly - S2 = 1.0432
Monthly - S3 = 1.0294
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for March 19, 2012
Wave marking analysis:
In the course of Friday’s trading operations the USD/JPY pair continued the formation of the inner wave structure of the prospect wave 4 in 3 (in 3 or C). Proceeding from the current wave structure we can assume that the pair is expected to test the level of the figure 84 and having defined the wave 5 in 3 will rapidly move to the lower limit of the ascending channel. At the same time it is possible that the Friday’s high is already considered as the high of the shortened wave 5. In any case the strong MACD divergence points at the necessity of more continuous and deeper correction.
Targets for the variant with the wave 5 in 3 in 3 or C:
83.84 and higher – 200.0% according to Fibonacci
Targets for the variant with a range of downside corrective waves:
83.22 – 161.8% according to Fibonacci
82.65 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the new ascending part of the trend continues its formation with the target seen at the level of figure 85 of the wave 3 or C. Proceeding from significantly shortened wave 2 or B we can define the force of the current trend and its ability for further elaboration that will result in the strengthening of American currency against Japanese, as we can actually see. The inner wave marking of the wave 3 or C indicates the possible continuation of the upward part of the trend with targets 83.84 and higher, corresponding to 200.0% of Fibonacci. The current correction within the wave 4 is not considered as too deep.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis for March 20, 2012
On Monday the dollar fell against other major currencies, with a strong momentum in relation to the euro and the pound sterling.
Wall Street shares continued to weakened, affected by the atmosphere of doubts of the European session.
However, a single fact could not change the direction of the market movement in a few hours. This time China was a protagonist.
The great Asian power, which affects all economic blocks, either due to its import or export, has entered this year into shadow of economic growth, prompting an immediate rise in the dollar on all fronts.
Thus, when the assumption concerning the possible decline in steel production, the hard currencies weakened, while exchange of "goods" was damaged even more, as China seemed to indicate the decline in commodity demand commodities that is taking place at the moment.
On the issue price is far more evident: the euro is back from yesterday’s highs after having failed to break down the 1.32 level. Meanwhile the British pound supported by the release on British inflation index standing in line with expectations, has fallen moderately without losing its short-term bullish direction.
But the Australian dollar is the first one to be affected by the news from its powerful neighbor, whose main customer is falling rapidly breaking the 1.05 point.
The Canadian dollar has not been that much affected, as the European currency was trading in narrow price ranges. The low oil prices, which appear to slow down at these times, have "stuck" loonie quotes on all fronts.
The low of the Dow Jones index futures appears to be more striking as it was traded at 13300 points within the strong bearish trend on the 4H chart. Maybe this time the beginning of significant profit-taking chip stocks, which are now at the 4 years high, will take place without interruption.
Meanwhile, the European stock markets operate with heavy losses, while on Tuesday's session averages they remained in the range between 1.2 and 1.7%. The major indexes are expected to move within downtrends in the nearest future.
The financial world now awaits the key U.S. data: building permits, announced at 8:30 EST. The construction sector indicated a very slow recovery in recent months; published figures do not exceed the highs of 2010. It should be noted that this data is a major concern of the Fed led by Ben Bernanke, who considers the primary building to leave behind once the economic crisis. Indeed, Bernanke will be presented in Washington from 12:45.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook for March 20, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
The AUD / USD pair is located at 1.0476 level i.e. around the first weekly support (W_S1). In the nearest future we expect that the pair will change its direction to downwards and continue the ascending movement towards the point 1.0800. Considering that the pair has broken its downtrend line and has made the corresponding pullback, and, if we look at the chart, the pair has formed a pattern of changed trend. Thus, it confirms our bullish outlook.
Therefore, we recommend Buy-deals at current levels of negotiation, pending an increase in the price of par. Our objective is placed in 1.0650 and our ultimate goal is the 1.0824 level. The Stop Loss is to be placed under the month's low.
The MACD indicator is in oversold area showing the bullish signals.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Sell Fractal 1.3240 - for March 20, 2012
The EUR / USD pair that is trading at 1.3190 has moved lower after the breakdown of the short-term trend line. Before the continuation of the descending trend, we will observe the usual pullback to 1.3240 weekly resistance. If this level is broken, the pair is expected to reach the 1.3309 level that is considered as the next resistance level.
Therefore, we recommend Sell-deals at the weekly resistance level around 1.3240 with a short-term objective 1.3055.
The MACD indicator and range are showing the bearish signals.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for March 20, 2012
Wave marking analysis:
In the course of yesterday’s trades the USD/CHF pair has managed to resume the downside movement. In the afternoon the pair tested the level of figure 91. The descending movement that has been developing since March 15 is presently looking as the completed 5-wave structure. If that proves to be so, then the price is likely to go upwards (or downwards) from the yesterday’s lows resulting in the formation of the wave B within the more continuous downside correction.
Targets for the variant with the wave A of the downside part of the trend:
0.9074 – 100.0% according to Fibonacci
0.9038 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci
Targets for the variant with the wave B:
0.9173 and higher – 23.6% according to Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
Friday’s downside movement has cancelled the option with the development of the ascending part of the trend. The whole wave marking is quite unstable and it is quite difficult to define, to which wave of the higher order the smaller waves belong. The current descending movement can be either within the 3-wave structure or can transform to the 5-wave structure with 0.9074 and 0.9038 as targets corresponding to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci.
Proceeding from this fact, it is necessary to be cautious while making deals, as there is no clear trend. The unexpected reversal of quotes to upwards can begin anytime. If this happens, it can be referred to the wave B of the descending part of the trend; the completed MACD convergence indicates the fact that this reversal is likely to take place soon.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading recommendations for March 20, 2012
General situation:
On March 20 the USD/CHF pair continued the descending movement and fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. As e result, the signal for Sell-deals was strengthened enabling to open the short positions. The current signal for Sell-deals is confirmed and strong as Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price is fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. That is the reason why the first support level 0.9084 is considered as a target for downside movements. In case this level has been overcome, the new target for the bullish trade – the second support level 0.9012 – will be available. The downward movement remains relevant as long as the price is above the Kjun-Sen (0.9210). While bearish trade above this line it is recommended to place Stop loss. When the price goes higher than this line, the signal for Sell-deals will weaken and the further development of the movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals indicating the bearish mood of the USD/CHF market. Bollinger Bands indicates the continuation of the descending movement; lines are expanding and directed downwards. Therefore, it is recommended to consider short positions. MACD is directed downwards and is considered as a signal of current descending movement. Thus, it is possible to open new selling orders and support the already opened orders. When the MACD turns to upwards, this will be the sign of correction.
Trading recommendations:
On the USD/CHF market it is recommended to consider short positions with target seen at the 0.9084 level. When the price passes through this level, the next target for Sell-deals will be seen at the 0.9012 level. Stop loss is to be placed above the point 0.9210. In case this line goes downwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. With 50-60 pips of profit Stop Loss can be placed to zero area. Take profits can be placed a little higher than the target levels.
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.
Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 23, 2011
The GBP/JPY pair is developing the corrective wave B of the medium term uptrend from the point 133.42 (royal blue in the chart). This wave includes two subwaves (magenta in the chart); a corrective subwave B is developing from 130.02.
The downside targets are Fibonacci retracements 126.48-133.42.
Supports:
- 129.95 = .50 retracement
- 129.13 = .618 ret
The upside targets are Fibonacci expansions 126.48-133.42-130.02 and retracements 133.42-130.02.
Resistances:
- 131.32 = .382 ret
- 131.72 = .50 ret
- 132.12 = .618 ret
- 134.31 = contracted objective point (COP)
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips below the current prices). Watch for the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 23, 2011
The AUD/USD pair is developing the potential corrective wave B of the medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from the point 1.0856. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B and C (royal blue in the chart). An impulse subwave C is developing from 1.0636. The latter comprises the subwaves A, and B (red in the chart); the subwave B is developing from 1.0336.
Now the downside targets are Fibonacci retracements 1.0423-1.0636, 0.9861-1.0856, and expansions 1.0856-1.0423-1.0636.
Supports:
- 1.0241 = .618 retracement
- 1.0236 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0203 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements 1.0636-1.0336.
Resistances:
- 1.0451 = .382 retracement
- 1.0486 = .50 ret
- 1.0521 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-45 pips above the current prices). Mind the possibilities of opening the short positions at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com