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USD/CAD Elliott wave count for March 6, 2012
Market Overview
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading within the upward movement. During the European session the major started the ascending movement to the 0.9959 level. Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair pushed only 35 pips lower before the price had started the new bullish mood.The USD/CAD pair finished Monday's New York session at 0.9945 level.Today during the Asian session we could observe the continuation of the upward movement.Today the USD/CAD pair is expected to test the 0.9970 level before reaching a new low, but it is also necessary to consider the data on the Canadian Ivey PMI as it can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9855 (S2) 0.9883 (S1) 0.9901 (PP) 0.9929 (R1) 0.9957 (R2) 0.9975 (R3) 1.0003
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished corrective a wave of the bigger wave 4 coming from 0.9959 and wave B developing from 0.9933. Presently we can see, that the final wave C is completed. Thus, we can open short positions for the wave 5. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 will is equal to the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with help of Fibonacci extension (0.9993-0.9842-0.9972) with first Take Profit at level 0.9877(61.8% of wave iii) and second Take Profit at 0.9852 (78.6% of wave 3). For Stop Loss we can use invalidation point at level 0.9975.
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short position at levels 0.9950 with Stop Loss at 0.9975, Take Profit 1 at 0.9877 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9852 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/USD Double Strategy for March 06, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
The GBP / USD pair
The GBP/USD pair is already at February 24 low and may continue its downward movement to the next weekly support. (W_S2) 1.5685.
On the chart we can see that the pair has found support at 1.5761 corresponding to the first support weekly (W_S1) and the moving average of 200 periods. At this level we can use 2 strategies. 1) If this support level is not broken, we can make BUY-deals with target seen at 1.5950.
On the other hand, if the pair closes below 1.5740, the SELL-deals at the 1.5530 level are recommended.
MCD indicator and Momentum are showing the signs of a possible rebound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for March 6, 2012
Wave marking analysis:
Having completed during the yesterday’s operations the corrective level 61.8% and reached the lower limit of the uprising channel, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the reached low (1.3160). Thus, the price has managed to complete the formation of the full wave structure of the supposed downside correction within A, B and C waves. If that proves to be so, then the ascending movement is likely to be continued, corresponding to the quotation growth in the area of the figure 35. At the same time, the price is still able to resume the descending movement and the wave 3 (or wave C) will acquire the more complicated and continuous structure.
Targets for the descending movement within the wave C:
1.3149 – 100.0% according to Fibonacci
1.3098 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci
Targets for the corrective waves against the current downside part of the trend:
1.3340 – the supposed top of the wave 2 (or wave B)
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the ascending part of the trend completed its formation; the new downward part of the trend began its development, though it is quite complicated to define which wave is presently developing. Thus, it is necessary to wait and consider the situation. The points 1.3149 and 1.3098 are considered as downside targets for the current descending movement, corresponding to 127.2% of Fibonacci. The corrective wave group (A-B-C waves) is likely to be completed in the nearest future followed by a new upward impulse.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook for March 6, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair, was devalued in this hour because the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut the exchange rate at its next meeting.
This movement of the Aussie was at least expected, with the price of gold ounce at the minimum of several days. We had already mentioned in previous analysis that there has to be a correction. http://instaforex/forex_analysis/52238/
At this point, given that the indicator and MCD is showing bearish exhaustion rate, we expect to stop at W_S2 and there will be a rebound to the weekly pivot line 1.07
Therefore I recommend you to sell the pair at the level of resistance targeted towards 1.0430, we can add that the last movement caused the pair to form a reversal pattern targeted to 1.0400
The range indicator is showing a deeper falling.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for March 6, 2012
General picture:
On March 6 the USD/CHF pair followed the tendency of euro and has also passed though the Ichimoku cloud confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and the relevance of the long positions. The current signal is considered as strong and confirmed, as Chinkou Span is located above the price chart and the price is higher than the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, the target for the ascending movement is seen at the first resistance level 0.9214. In case this level is passed through, the new target for the uprising movement – the second resistance level 0.9289 – will be available. The upward movement remains the same as long as the price is higher than the Kijun-Sen (0.9050). When bullish trading below this line it is recommended to set Stop Loss. The same is for the case, when the price goes lower than this line, as the signal for BUY-deals will weaken and the further development of the ascending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for BUY-deals and indicating the bullish mood of the USD/CHF pair. Bollinger Bands indicates the continuation of the upward movement; the lines are expanded and directed upwards. Thus, it is recommended to consider the long positions. MACD is directed downwards indicating the corrective movements showing the current corrective mood. Therefore it is better to refrain from opening the long positions. In case the indicator reverses to upwards, this can be considered a sign for opening the long positions.
Trading recommendations:
As to the USD/CHF market, it is recommended to open the long positions with target seen at the 0.9214 level. When this level is passed through, the target level for BUY-deals will be located in the point 0.9289. Stop Loss is to be placed lower than 0.9050. In case this line increases, the Stop Loss is to be placed after it. It is recommended to open the orders in case the MACD direction reverses to upwards. With 50-60 pips profitability it is possible to place Stop Loss in the zero area. Take Profit orders can be set a bit lower than the target levels.
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.
Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis for March 8, 2012
For two days we expected the publication of the most important news of the week, and perhaps of the month, with respect to currency.
Within minutes the Bank of England will announce its monetary policy for the current month, with no substantial changes are expected. Interest rates remain at record low 0.5%, although Governor Mervyn King emphasizes their importance. The data concerning the causes of this decision and the procedure of voting will be released within two weeks.
In the meanwhile, at 7:45 Eastern, the European Central Bank will also announce its benchmark interest rate, which will remain unchanged at 1%. At 8:30 the subsequent press conference was held by Chairman Draghi in order to clarify the steps aimed at stimulating the economy of the countries in trouble.
This news was released amid the quarrels in Greece, where 60.6% of the creditors agreed to start the proposed debt-restructuring until the Thursday afternoon. If the proposal is accepted by desired 70%, then, according to the Greek legislation that regulate the debt swap, the other 30% are obliged to accept the agreement as well.
Thursday’s news from Greece changed the general picture of the European session. The bags are growing in good shape, and the coins are moving within an upward trend against the dollar.
This fact explains the movement of the euro, which again exceeded 1.32; the pound sterling failed to break the 1.58 level; and currencies linked to commodities, the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, have partially reversed its losses for the last two days.
On the other hand, at 8:30 the weekly unemployment requests are expected to be released. This indicator has been showing declining figures, outstanding asset in economy that, in turn, creates each month more jobs than last month.
Indeed, in February the ADP survey showed the creation of 216 jobs in private sector. This figure could match or approach the official data published by the Labor Department on Friday morning.
Another crucial point is the announcement concerning the monetary policy by the Bank of Canada. While the Canadian dollar has not weakened against the dollar, it is not likely to remain at current positions for a long time. The loonie is expected to decline to the area of 1.03 / 4 in the few weeks. Nevertheless, its decline depends on the behavior of the oil.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for March 8, 2012
Wave marking analysis:
Yesterday’s trading operations did not affect much the formed wave picture of the EUR/USD pair. The price changes took place within the range 1.3100-1.3160. Therefore, we can assume that the pair began the formation of the wave B within the scenario of the further development of the downside correction. If that proves to be so, then in the course of development of the wave B the price is likely to return to the limits of the ascending channel. This will enable the continuation of the descending movement to the level of the figure 30. At the same time, according to the several indicators, the euro is still able to resume the growth to the February’s highs.
Targets for the descending movement within the wave A (If not completed):
1.3098 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
1.3035 – 88.6% according to Fibonacci
Targets for the variant with the wave B:
1.3173 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci
1.3233 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the new descending part of the trend is developing though it is quite complicated to define exactly, which wave has been forming. Perhaps, this is the wave A of the prospect continuous downside correction. The current descending movement has downside targets 1.3098 and 1.3035 corresponding to 76.4% and 88.6% of Fibonacci. The wave A is likely to complete its formation (or has already completed) beginning a new ascending movement within the wave B with targets 1.3173 and 1.3233 which is equal to 61.8% and 50.0% of Fibonacci.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook for March 8, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
The GBP/USD pair
The GBP is likly to continue the bullish trend against the dollar. Given the downward pressure is not completed yet, we believe that the next support level 1.5735 will be crucial for the continuation of the trend. In case this level is broken, cthe pair will decline to the point 1.5569.
Therefore, we recommend Buy-deals above the bullish channel around 1.5735 with Stop loss below the 1.5685 weekly support level. The short-term goal is seen at 1.5950 level.
MCD Indicator is in mixed zone and showing bullish signals.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Buy Above 1.3095 for March 8, 2012
The EUR/USD pair
The EUR / USD pair has rebounced from the last month's low, finding a support in the W_S1, having rebounded to the level 1.3236. Considering that this position is crucial for the future movement of the euro, we believe that if the level of 1.3100 remains unbroken, the euro will reach the 1.3394 level, i.e. the area of the first weekly resistance and the fractal formed in 1.3403
Therefore, we recommend Buy-positions in the correction of this upward sequence at 1.3144 (fractal) with a target at 1.3390 level. The Stop Loss is recommended below 1.3095 weekly support.
MCD and Range Indicator show a positive divergence and a stronger bullish movement.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for Mach 8, 2012
General situation:
Analyzing the USD/JPY pair exchange rate for March 8 we can define exactly the reasons that forced the Ichimoku to provide the signal for Buy-deals. This signal is considered as weak and confirmed as Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price remains higher than the Ichimoku Cloud. Thus, the downside targets are seen at the second support level 79.37, though it is recommended to begin trading when the price will be fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. In case this resistance level is passed though, the next target will be seen at the third resistance level 78.73. The ascending movement remains the same, as long as the price is located higher than the Kijun-Sen (81.20). In case the price is located higher than this point, the further elaboration of the signal for Sell-deals will be questioned resulting in possible reversal of price to upwards. Chinkou Span is located lower than the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicating the bearish mood at the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands indicates the descending movement, lines are expanded and directed downwards, that is why Sell-orders are considered relevant. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current upward movement. That is the reason why the indicator prevents from entering the market with short positions. Therefore, it is necessary to wait when the price is fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud.
Trading recommendations:
As to USD/JPY pair market, it is recommended to consider the Sell-positions with target seen at the level 79.37. In case this level is passed through, the next target will be seen at the level 78.73. Stop Loss is to be placed above the point 81.20. When opening the short positions, MACD is expected to indicate the downside movement. When the price passes 30-40 pips to the required side, the Stop Loss can be placed to a non-loss area. Take profits can be placed at levels 79.45 and 78.80.
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.
Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 9, 2011
GBP/JPY is now developing impulse wave A of medium term downtrend (royal blue in the chart), until the price breaks above 130.04. Within this wave we have subwaves A, and B (magenta in the chart) that is developing from 126.48. Within the latter we have five subwaves (yellow in the chart), and subwave 5 is still developing from 128.31.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 126.84-129.13-128.31.
Resistances:
- 129.73 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.60 = objective point (OP)
But if the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 126.48-129.51.
Supports:
- 128.35 = .382 retracement
- 128.00 = .50 ret
- 127.64 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (50-65 pips above the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 9, 2011
AUD/USD has finished wave 0.9861-1.0856 (coral in the chart). Now corrective wave B is developing from 1.0856. Within this wave we have subwaves A, and B (magenta in the chart). Within the latter we have four subwaves (orange red in the chart).
Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0817-1.0509, 1.0856-1.0509, and expansions off 1.0509-1.0592-1.0533, 1.0533-1.0669-1.0617.
Resistances:
- 1.0682 = .50 retracement
- 1.0699-1.0701 = confluence area of .618 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0723 = .618 ret
- 1.0750-53 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP)
However if the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0509-1.0669, 0.9861-1.0856.
Supports:
- 1.0608 = .382 ret
- 1.0589 = .50 ret
- 1.0570 = .618 ret
- 1.0476 = .382 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/CAD Elliott wave count for March 9, 2012
Market Overview
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading within the downward movement. During the European session the major started the descending movement to the point 0.9942. During the New York session the USD/CAD pair increased by 20 pips before price had fined resistance at 100EMA and continued the bearish mood to the point 0.9891.Today during the Asian session we could observe the sideways move.Today the USD/CAD pair is expected to test the 0.9950 level, but it is also necessary to consider the data on the USA Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate and CAD Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, as it can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9832 (S2) 0.9869 (S1) 0.9892 (PP) 0.9929 (R1) 0.9966 (R2) 0.9989 (R3) 1.0026
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD has finished a corrective wave b of the bigger (a) wave in the point 0.9890. Presently we can observe the start of the wave c. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave c will be equal as wave a,we can define the potential targets with help of Fibonacci extension (0.9842-1.0027-0.989): Take Profit is to be placed at 0.9983 level (50% of a wave),Take Profit 2 is to be placed at 1.0005 level (61.8% of a wave) . For Stop Loss we can use the support level 0.9850.
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long position at levels 0.9920 with Stop Loss at 0.9850, Take Profit at 0.9983, Take Profit 2 at 1.0005 are recommended
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/USD Technical Pattern for March 9, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is thinking about what technical pattern to choose and without definite trend, the moving average of 200 periods (blue) is above the current price quote, about 1.5877, if the pair closes the day and the week above this level, we recommend buying until the next resistance of 1.6069 (W_R2) as the final objective.
Furthermore, a close below 1.5720 can denote enter sell-positions until the next support, 1.5569.(W_S3)
The Range indicator and Momentum is showing bearish signals and neutral divergence.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Bullish Outlook for March 09, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
EUR/USD
The EUR / USD pair is in downward trend in view of the fundamental data to be published, we believe it to continue the downward trend for the rest of the American session.
The next support at 1.3150 and 1.3125, the latter coincides with the line of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. And finally, the channel long-term uptrend.
A close below these support levels invalidate our bullish outlook of the pair. Therefore, we recommend buying at levels of supports already mentioned, the stop loss is very tight below the second weekly support around 1.3095, and our partial goal, we will place at 1.3450 and 1.3660 our final objective,
The MCD indicator, shows bearish signal and range indicator shows the long-term trend as a bullish signal.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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