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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 29, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with corrective subwave 4 still developing from 0.9663. Within the latter wave 4 there are also three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C developing from 0.9666. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0343-0.9663, and expansions off 0.9663-0.9785-0.9666, 0.9666-0.9975-0.9863.
Resistances:
- 0.9985 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0003 = .50 retracement
- 1.0054 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0083 = .618 ret
If the pair reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9663-0.9975.
Supports:
- 0.9856 = .382 ret
- 0.9819 = .50 ret
- 0.9782 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (60-70 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (80-90 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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EUR/NZD Ichimoku technical analysis for November 29, 2011
H4
As expected the EUR/NZD declined to the support level 1.7600 formed by the lower limit of the Ichimoku Cloud in the 4-hour timeframe. A rebound to the upside followed and the market started consolidating on the current levels.
However the short-term negative sentiment remains as the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen (3, 4) are still holding the Dead cross (5). Therefore the Senkou Span B is very likely to be broken down. In this case the market might fall down to the next support at 1.7450.
Further downfall can only be prevented by the Senkou Span B being in the oversold zone. Therefore even if the price breaks below the Ichimoku Cloud, in the nearest time a consolidation under the Senkou Span B might start.
H1
In a 1-hour timeframe the downside trend still remains both in short and in long term.
The Ichimoku Cloud has a downside character supported by the descending Senkou Span A (1), and the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are keeping the Dead cross (5).
Therefore in the nearest time we should probably expect further downtrend if the price manages to fixate above the Rotation line (3) being broken down at the moment. Morning highs are likely to be refreshed.
Performed by Vadim Idrisov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 29 / 2011
The Friday after Thanksgiving Day, the largest U.S. stores are launching a series of bids, in what is called "black Friday", but not with the meaning usually given to the days when stock markets tremble .
This time, the black Friday (in other words means that the numbers went from "red", symbolizing loss, the "black" meaning profit) had a record retail sales, in part, served to you on Monday New York Stock Exchange re-sung, and the main contributors to gain ground actions.
Also contributed to the good business climate the commitment of European leaders put more emphasis on the recovery of their economies, and also to seek a sustainable solution to the problem of sovereign debts.
This complex picture in which the investor sentiment changes hour by hour, is also reflected in the currencies. A very bullish opening was followed by another move in the opposite direction of the euro, British pound, Swiss franc and yen.
In turn, driven by oil and gold, the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar also had a strong performance on the rise, attenuated toward the end of the American session.
While average European session on Tuesday, both the euro and the pound sterling and Swiss franc thrive against the dollar, waiting for the meeting of European finance ministers.
It is expected that at least they make an announcement encouraging about the crisis affecting the entire continent, and the expectation of the market leads to the purchase of risky assets.
Anyway, watching the two separate "gaps" that remain in the major pairs on Monday in the Asian session, and have not been covered, and with prices so far away from them, it is perfectly conceivable that by combining analysis fundamental technical, good news will not be leaving the meeting date.
Tuesday's U.S. session will report the importance of consumer confidence index issued by the Conference Board, at 10:00 Eastern.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, November 29, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
EUR/USD
Investors are encouraged by the prospect that the Federal Reserve will launch an additional program to buy bonds the next quarter, yesterday evening was reported to have found a formula to leverage the billions of euros in rescue, when in the next few days details will be published. These events, surely encourage the Euro - Dollar,
On a technical level, the pair opened the week with a bullish Gap, and still has not closed. given that there is a slight upward trend, we believe that the force was over. just at the level of resistance around 1.3460, if this level is broken and the pair closes the November negotiations over this level. have for the month of December, a euro trading above 1.38. Our profit-taking in this exercise we will place in the nearest support around 1.3100. dollars per Euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The USD/JPY technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 29, 2011
Overview:
According to the analysis of the yen on Forex market, the upside movement is continuing, therefore long positions are recommended until the correction movement begins. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 78.44 – the second resistance level. If this level is passed the second target will be the third resistance level at 79.11. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (77.60). The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the buy sell signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show continuing upside movement, the lines are slightly diverging and directed up, therefore it is recommended to consider long positions. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement, in case the MACD reverses down we should close long positions.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 78.44 and further to 79.11. Stop Loss should be placed below 77.60. It is recommended to cut buy positions after the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 30, 2011
AUD/USD is developing corrective wave B of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 0.9663. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored red in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 0.9863. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-0.9663, and expansions off 0.9666-0.9975-0.9863, 0.9863-1.0077-0.9975.
Resistances:
- 1.0107 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0172 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0189 = OP
- 1.0208 = .50 retracements
If the pair reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9663-1.0085.
Supports:
- 0.9924 = .382 ret
- 0.9874 = .50 ret
- 0.9824 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 30, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 119.31. Within the latter there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) and impulse subwave C is developing from 120.70. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-119.31, 125.63-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-121.62-120.70.
Resistances:
- 122.13 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.34 = .382 retracement
- 122.47 = .50 ret
- 123.01 = objective point (OP)
- 123.22 = .618 ret
- 123.28 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.31-121.82.
Supports:
- 120.82 = .382 ret
- 120.57 = .50 ret
- 120.27 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-20 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For December 1st / 2011
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Breakout BUY Level : 1.3505.
Strong Resistance : 1.3497.
Original Resistance : 1.3485.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3472.
Target Inner Area : 1.3440.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3408.
Original Support : 1.3395.
Strong Support : 1.3382.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.3374.
DECRIPTION :
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3395 and 1.3485 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.3382 and 1.3497 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.3374 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.3505 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3408 and 1.3472 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.3440 level.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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NZD/USD Ichimoku technical analysis for December 1, 2011
H4
Positive informational background increased bullish sentiment on the NZD/USD market that advanced to the upper limit of the 4-hour Cloud. The pair recovered by over 200 pips and stopped near 0.7800 thus showing the record growth in the last two months.
However despite the short-term positive sentiment, the long-term trend remains negative. The Ichimoku Cloud has a downside character that will remain such during next 1-2 days.
In case the bulls cannot break the resistance the upper Kumo limit the price might return to the Rotation line (3), thus forming a correction.
The Chinkous Span deviated from the graph also confirms the possibility of such events.
H1
In 1-hour graphs the main sentiment is positive. The Ichimoku Cloud retained positive character and is widening the range in the positive direction due to the growing Senkou Span A.
The short-term Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen formed a new Gold cross (5) meant to support the bulls in the nearest time.
It is worth mentioning that the Kijun-sen (4) formed a new support at 0.7700 that will resist possible corrective decline.
During today’s session the price might decline and trade sideways inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. However, if the Rotation line cannot provide support the bulls will try to resume the recovery.
Performed by Vadim Idrisov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, December, 01 / 2011
On Wednesday, an agreement between six central banks, they have already taken important
decisions against the yen in March and agreed that joint actions several times, went back into
action.
Through this new agreement will run until mid-2013 a series of currency swaps between these
entities, while refinancing debt agreed to continue to provide a sustainable exit to the crisis
that European economies are embedded in the first place, and also the United States.
Also, during the European session, the People's Bank of China had cut the lace that banks should
be deposited in the state, seeking to provide loans to individuals, and thus give dynamism to
the local economy.
The other positive news of the day came from the hand of the ADP private survey, which showed
employment growth well above that expected in November, which also generates optimism for the
official data, due on Friday.
Earnings of European stock exchanges of New York and spread the good climate to foreign
exchange. To advertisements, the euro, British pound, Swiss franc and the yen recovered quickly
positions, bringing its short-term charts against the dollar in very bullish trends.
Logically, on closing the U.S. session, there were logical correction of a movement of this
kind, without, however, changing the trends that had formed hours before.
The announcement of the central bank does not work, let alone the European crisis, but it does
give some air to their leaders, who seem disoriented in recent days, making decisions and
issuing advertisements then not carried out.
No significant developments during Thursday's Asian session, European stock markets seem to have
appeased the euphoria of yesterday, and operate with losses of 0.5%.
In turn, presented the major currencies against the dollar disparate behaviors, greatly
strengthened the euro area and looking again at 1.35 and the pound sterling also showing an
upward trend in the short term. The currencies linked to commodities have a different
perspective for the rest of the day. The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar not consolidating
its upward trend on Wednesday, losing strength in the last hours.
In the U.S. session will be announced Thursday at 8:30 Eastern, weekly unemployment requests,
and at 10:00 the ISM manufacturing, which are the interesting facts of the day.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, December 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
AUD/USD
The pair Australian dollar - U.S. dollar it is known that the pair has a high volatility in
relation to markets and their correlation is very high. Therefore, the pair has rebounded
strongly from its minimum of 0.9660 to the maximum of the day yesterday at 1.0329, 650 pips a
rebound.
Technically, it is estimated that the pair will continue their current upward movement but has
to overcome the important resistance level of 1.0430. We have a sell order to activate a touch
see this level, we believe this will be a very strong resistance torque can not overcome easily.
Our goal for the total realization of this exercise we will place right in the nearest weekly
support around 0.9700 U.S. Dollars per Australian Dollars.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Buy Above 1.3330 December 01, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)
EUR/USD
The pair Euro - U.S. dollar has recovered from the downward pressure that led to the minimum of
1.3250, when yesterday registered a maximum of 1.3530, almost 300 pips rebound after the
announcement that major central banks would coordinate efforts to ensure that there is no
shortage of global liquidity crisis due to the current euro-zone.
We must be attentive to the response to be given to the situasion of the crisis; has been given
a period of 10 days for financial decisions.
We therefore recommend be cautious because this scenario has not yet even finished.
At the level of technical analysis, we note that the euro has broken an overwhelming its
downtrend, we even lack the "Pull Back" that arises whenever a pair trends change, so we
recommend buy at lower levels of 1.3330 (this level coinside with weekly pivot point) with a
target end of the year to the level of 1.3830 dollars per euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, December, 02 / 2011
Today, investor attention is placed on the data of U.S. jobs.
November is expected to have created 120,000 new jobs, compared with 80,000 in October and the
unemployment rate has remained at 9%.
Of course, these data have their interpretations, and revisions. Thus, the figure is as good as
last month's review in October, especially if they differ much from the number published in due
course. And the unemployment rate, the real key fact, every so often offers some surprises.
In mid 2009, the Labor Department had estimated that by mid 2012, the rate would be
approximately 7.5%. Another miscalculation, and there is any error, by the way.
On another note, the markets took a breather on Thursday in the week of festivities, the
announcement of a major injection of dollars and euros to markets by the Fed, and the top five
central bank's next in importance .
But it's hard to understand at times euphoria. Reading carefully the promises of these central
banks, it is purely technical ads, in no way help the real economy of any country.
Lower the cost of borrowing overnight or a few tenths of a point in the cost of financing from
Italy, Spain or any other country in trouble, does not substantially change anything.
The problem is not to pay such high interest rates, which is serious, but not enough to have
economies like the current recession.
And to combat the recession, financial markets must accompany economic growth, financing
productive projects.
If no project, if there are countries with more than 20% unemployment, where hundreds of
thousands of properties unfinished and unsold, if the industries do not work, that accompany the
financial markets project?
In this case, markets are dedicated to finding only the weakest of all, a debtor from his debts
just cornered and attacked him with unpaid fees.
In other words, a plan like that proposed by the central banks can help, in part, short-term
financial problem solving, to pour money into the markets, which invariably will go to stocks,
bonds, futures contracts on commodities and currency, and therefore these assets grow.
But the world knows, throughout its history, which finances work as an engine without oil when
the economy is destroyed.
And to rebuild the economy are governments, not central banks. Indeed, these governments are
shown faint-hearted, timid and lack of reaction.
But for a long time, all that remain from the side. At 8:30 Eastern, the jobs data will eclipse
the markets and the opening of the NYSE reflected the climate created minutes earlier. And every
month, anything can happen.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for December 2, 2011
Wave dimension analysis:
Yesterday’s USD/JPY slight movement from the reached high can probably be interpreted as an
attempt to form a 5-wave structure of the future 1st wave (or a) of the new trend downside
section. If so, the first target for this 1st wave will be 77.20 or even 76.50. At the same time
the pair still has a chance to resume upside movement in favour of the US currency. In the
meantime the whole upside section formed after November 18 can appear the beginning of a new
continuous uptrend.
General conclusion and trading recommendations:
At the moment the price is in a local downside movement thus probably forming the first wave of
the trend downside section. In general we can spot some uncertainty, as with other currency
pair. Current movement can reach 77.08 or Fibonacci 23.6% level. In case this assumption is
correct an upside correction against the 5-wave structure will follow. However the pair remains
not quite suitable for trading.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis
The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel in 1.5560 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a return to the lower limit of this one to 1.5280.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.5560 with a 1st objective of 1.5640, then 1.5660. A break in 1.5540 would invalidate this scenario.
Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com