My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 31
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I have just sent you an email (not a PM) so that you can email me the charts since it is not possible to attach them to a PM.
Thanks
Kenneth
P.S. No wonder your pc is so fast - it is quad core. Mine is still a dual-core (what a cheap skit I am - hehe)Your the one making real money with it! I am the cheapo here..
I have just sent you an email (not a PM) so that you can email me the charts since it is not possible to attach them to a PM.
Thanks
Kenneth
P.S. No wonder your pc is so fast - it is quad core. Mine is still a dual-core (what a cheap skit I am - hehe)Confirm I have received the 4 charts. I shall take a look at them now. Give me some time to study them.
I shall be logging off now, as I have to go out.
Thanks
Kenneth
My order has closed at 134.66, making another gain of 30 pips for today.
This win has given me FIVE STRAIGHT DAYS OF WINS.
Shall attach an extract later. I am now switching over to our Malaysian local market.
Enough for the day.
KennethAttached is an extract of my transaction on EURJPY for today.
It took less than 1 hour to close.
Everytime I hit a win, it makes me even tougher to score another win on Mon to make it SIX in six consecutive days.
Kenneth
At 8:41 GMT, Bought at 1.4366;
Was Stop Loss at 1.4352 - a loss of 14 pips;
At time of writing, it is 1.4333
So for today, I have 1 win and 1 loss and made (30-14) 16 pips.
Kenneth
Update No.1 GBPJPY
I hope none of you short this currency pair although the EW chart was showing that it was heading downpath.
At time of writing, the Pips to Open touched 100 pips Up.
After 4 continuous days of falling, the statistical odds for it to go down further gets harder, and in my morning's posting I did suggest that one can buy long when it retraces.
I was having my siesta, so I missed the boat. Anyway, I made about US$180.00 net.
Next week will be another interesting week as I subject the Statistical Odds method cum EW theory to further testing.
Kenneth
Update No.2 GBPJPY
It looks like GBPJPY's railly is losing its strength and momentum, and can heading down again.
If it does, then it will be a good candidate to short again.
Kenneth
Comparative Weekly and Daily EW Charts
Morning, Guys:
Weekends should be a time to review and evaluate what has happened during the week and what to expect next week.
Attached are the EW charts for our currency pairs of EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY – both a Daily and a Weekly chart with my comments. I have also taken the liberty to add manually some smaller wave labels onto the charts
Some currency pairs are going one way on a Daily chart whilst on a Weekly chart, they are going the other way. Hey, whither goeth thou?? And HOW DO WE RECONCILE these contradictions??
EURJPY: On a daily basis, it is pointing up but on a weekly basis it is pointing down. If you are a short-term player, when it points up you can buy but make sure you have done your technical analysis work first.
If you are a longer-term player, you can short on rallies. So which type of player are you.
EURUSD: Both daily and weekly charts are pointing down. On the other hand, Elwave analysis shows it is positive and up.
So, if you are a newbie on EW, you become confused and do not know whom to follow. The answer is simple. WHERE IN DOUBT, STAY OUT. Why must you trade something you are confused and do not understand.
Even for myself, though I have used both softwares and like both of them equally, in such a situation I will also stay out since two “expert” softwares do not even agree with one another. It is NOT their money. It is my money that I am trading with. Forget them in these circumstances – hehe.
If you are an Aget user and has cnnfidence in Aget, then you go ahead. If you are an Elwave user and has confidence in its findings, you also go ahead.
As for me, I want to stay sane.
GBPJPY: Both daily and weekly agree with one another – so there is no dispute. So, you can follow the charts.
GBPUSD: The weekly shows it is going down. The daily is a bit tricky – Wave 3 may have hit its limit; if so, it is going to retrace. Even if it has not hit its target yet, there is not much distance to go down further. To hit FR 2.618 is a question mark? How long will it take to go there?
So, stay out.
USDJPY: During the week, I have downgraded this currency pair as a “dreamer”. So, I took an alternate wave count to see what is going on. The picture is clearer – both the daily and weekly show it is going down.
CAUTION: When profit targets are shown, DO NOT ASSUME these will be touched that very day. On a Daily chart, these targets take days and weeks or even months to reach. On realtime basis, though I have not play with any real-time softwares, I believe this also applies. Do not think the targets will be reached within minutes or hours UNLESS that software has the capability to tell you what time the targets will be hit. (I like to purchase one also if it is available.)
Conclusion: Please keep these charts as they will be used on Monday. Late this evening (around 4:30 to 5:00 pm EST in Malaysia), I shall put up a post to show how I traded this week using an unorthodox approach for intraday trading.
Kenneth
Study of Probabilities: This will involve looking at the charts of your Watch List of currency pairs, and you don't have to be a chartist to do this. And also look at your Journal Entries of transactions. (This will be dealt with tomorrow evening EST Malaysia).
With the help of the MT4 platform DAILY ie D1 charts, look at the last few CANDLESTICKS for the currency pairs on your Watch List – eg EURJPY and GBPJPY.
You have to ask TWO questions:
1. What does the EW chart say – going UP or DOWN.
2. Count the number of WHITE or GREEN candlesticks for the last 3-4 days - bullish or bearish
For example – EURJPY, the EW chart says it is going to be UP. Look at the EW chart I attached this morning.
Then, count the number of the last few candlesticks – how many WHITES/BLACKS are there? Four. These are bearish candlesticks. This means for the last 4 days there have been 4 down days. The probability of fifth day being down is 0.5^5 = about 3%. There is only 3% probability that prices will go down AND 97% probability that it will go up. And this is also confirmed by the EW chart that it is going UP - which increases the probability that EURJPY will go up on Mon.
However, nothing is certain. There is 3% that prices can go DOWN even though it is only a single digit.
You can place your order to buy with a SL of 20 pips and a TP of 30 pips on the Opening Price when the Pacific market opens OR you can wait for a while because you are not sure. Hopefully you will not take too long to decide as sometimes the pace can be very fast.
If it turns out that on the fifth day, the EURJPY do go down, you lose 20 pips.
The reason why it can go Up is because having fell for 5 days, it is about time for retracement.
This is also a game of probability.
Another example – look at GBPJPY on the D1 chart. From Mon to Thu, it has been falling. The probability for falling on the fifth day is also 3% and 97% it will go up on Fri. I have casually mentioned that it is likely to retrace up on my Friday's posting, as I have already calculated the odds for this.
The currency pair did rebound. From Open to High, it was as much as 135 pips.
The EW chart was showing it will go down but the element of chance was against this prediction. Who won??
This is a game of probability.
The ADDED FACTOR was PROBABILITY though we use EW Theory as our starting basis for market direction but not the sole basis for our decision to trade as our conventional EW method.
(To continue tomorrow – evening (EST) in Malaysia). It deals with the Journal Entries.
P.S. I am going out for a movie to relax myself with my family.