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EUR/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD:+1.4645+
Last Update At14 Dec 2009 01:30 GMT
Although euro's selloff in Friday's NY session
to 1.4586 confirms recent decline has resumed, sub-
sequent rebound suggests initial consolidation is
in store, as long as 1.4665 (prev. sup) holds, down
side bias remains for re-test of 1.4586, 1.4550/60.
Incline to sell on recovery for this move n only
abv 1.4690/00 signals a temporary low is formed.
Range Forecast
+1.4615 / 1.4645+
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4665/1.4728/1.4783
S: 1.4600/1.4586/1.4545
Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 14/12/2009 21:56 All times in GMT
Dollar falls broadly as Dubai gets financial aid on debt
The greenback weakened across the broad on Monday after news that Abu Dhabi would offer US$10 billion to help Dubai World pay its debts. This gesture quickly reduced safe-haven demand for the greenback and yen, and global equities advanced on this news. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's performance against a basket of six other major currencies, fell to 76.407.
Although the single currency has rebounded to 1.4686 in European morning on news that Abu Dhabi would help Dubai World to meet its obligations, renewed selling interest pressured the euro and price fell to 1.4617 before recovering in NY. On other news, Eurozone employment for the third quarter of 2009 dropped by 0.5% q/q n 2.10% y/y whilst eurozone industrial production in October decreased by 0.6% n 11.1%, versus the economists' forecast of 0.7% n 10.9% drop respectively.
The Brtish pound went through another volatile day against the dollar on Monday as the pair extended its last Friday's selloff to 1.6190 in Asia on reaction to the negative weekend U.K. press about pre-Budget Report and the news that Cadbury had rejected the Kraft offer before rebounded strongly to 1.6327 after the Abu Dhabi news. Cable fell to as low as 1.6216 in European morning and then recovered in NY on active cross buying in sterling (eur/gbp fell fm 0.9050 to 0.8988).
The greenback remained under pressure and fell to 88.32 versus the yen in Asia on active cross buying in jpy, however, trading volume was relatively thin in European and NY sessions as investors were awaiting the announcement about the guidelines for the year's budget tomorrow. Japan's coalition government has already agreed earlier to keep bond issuance below approximately 44 trillion yen (US$ 495 billion) next fiscal year.
Data to be released on Tuesday include Switzerland industrial production, U.K. RICS house price index, DGLG house price (y/y), CPI and RPI, Canada leading indicators, U.S. foreign treasury buys, net LT TIC flows, capacity utilisation, industrial production and NAHB housing market index.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.4658
Last Update At14 Dec 2009 23:27 GMT
Although euro is expected to move sideways in
Asia after y'day's retreat fm 1.4686 to 1.4617 (Eur
opean low), as long as this initial sup holds, fur-
ther choppy consolidation with mild upside bias is
seen, abv 1.4686 wud bring retrace. twd 1.4715/20.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated n only below
1.4600 wud risk resumption of decline twd 1.4550.
Range Forecast
1.4640 / 1.4670
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4686/1.4728/1.4777
S: 1.4608/1.4586/1.4547
Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 15/12/2009 18:09 All times in GMT
Dollar gains ahead of FOMC statement
The greenback advanced across the board on Tuesday in part due to strong U.S. inflation data which suggests the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. The dollar gained against the euro, touching a 2-1/2-month high on concerns over eurozone banks. The single currency was under pressure starting from European opening and despite the release of better-than-expected German ZEW index which came in at 50.4 versus the economists' forecast of 50.0, euro continued to fall on worries over the Greek government's failure to announce tougher measures to shore up the country's finances. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced late on Monday spending cuts and a 90% tax on private bankers' bonuses in an effort to rein in Greece's debt and deficit. Also weighing on the euro was a report saying Austrian monetary authorities had put the country's No. 4 bank on a watchlist.
U.K. CPI, RPI and core RPI rose by 0.3% m/m and 1.9% y/y, 0.3% m/m and 0.3% y/y n 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y respectively. British house price came in at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% m/m rise n 2.2% y/y decrease in October. The British pound retreated from 1.6320 to a low of 1.6205 after the data but recovered strongly in NY morning.
The greenback has traded with a firm undertone throughout the Asian n European sessions but retreated from intra-day high at 89.95 in NY after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. Empire state manufacturing data which came in at 2.55 for December, well below the economists' forecast of 24.00 and the reading of 23.51 in November. In other news, U.S. PPI rose by 1.8% m/m and 2.4% y/y respectively, much higher than the expectation of 0.8% and 1.6%. The core PPI rose by 0.5% m/m and 1.2% y/y versus forecast of 0.2% m/m and 0.9% y/y.
The RBA released its meeting minutes on Tuesday and Aud fell after the report. Aud tumbled to as low as in NY before recovering on profit taking. The minutes from the central bank's last meeting were not as hawkish as expected, suggesting it may pause in its tightening cycle.
Data to be released on Wednesday include Australia GDP, Westpac leading economic index, Japan machine tools orders, German and eurozone service and manufacturing PMI, U.K. ILO unemployment rate, claimant count, eurozone, HICP final, U.S. housing starts, building permits, CPI, current account. The FOMC will announce their decision on interest rates at 19:15GMT.
Recent Recommended Trades by AceTrader
*****************************************
Update Time: 17 Dec 2009 07:51GMT
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.7120
Although kiwi's anticipated weakness signals nr
term fall fm 0.7321 has resumed, o/sold condition
shud keep price abv 0.7079 n risk rebound later.
Exit short at 0.7174 n stand aside. Abv 0.7155
(prev. sup) suggests temp. low is made, 0.7190/00.
Rate: 0.7120
Strategy: Exit short
Position: Short at 0.7174
Objective:
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.7155/0.7232/0.7300
Support: 0.7079/0.7043/0.7014
*******************************************
Update Time: 17 Dec 2009 07:35GMT
INTRA-DAY EUR/JPY OUTLOOK - +129.27+
Euro's breach of indicated sup at 129.54 signals
nr term rise fm 129.19 has ended at 130.80 y'day n
downside bias is seen for a re-test of said sup,
however, break is needed to suggest breakout of the
128.78-131.60 range has occured, 128.78 later.
Sell at market n only abv 129.94 (prev. sup) wud
risk stronger rebound twd 130.20/30 b4 down...
Rate: +129.27+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Short at 129.57+
Objective: 129.27
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 129.94/130.36/130.80
Support: 129.19/128.78/128.40
****************************************
Update Time: 17 Dec 2009 03:25GMT
DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - +90.15+
Dlr's upmove fm 87.36 has resumed in part due to
cross selling in yen n further gain to 90.15 is
seen but as broad outlook is consolidative, reckon
daily res at 90.78 wud hold on 1st testing n risk
has increased for a retreat later.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only
below 89.00 aborts n risks correction to 88.50/60.
Rate: +90.15+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 89.40
Objective: 90.15
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 90.78/91.34/92.33
Support: 89.75/89.39/89.00
***************************************
Recent Recommended Trades by AceTrader
*****************************************
Update Time: 17 Dec 2009 07:51GMT
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.7120
Although kiwi's anticipated weakness signals nr
term fall fm 0.7321 has resumed, o/sold condition
shud keep price abv 0.7079 n risk rebound later.
Exit short at 0.7174 n stand aside. Abv 0.7155
(prev. sup) suggests temp. low is made, 0.7190/00.
Rate: 0.7120
Strategy: Exit short
Position: Short at 0.7174
Objective:
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.7155/0.7232/0.7300
Support: 0.7079/0.7043/0.7014
*******************************************
Update Time: 17 Dec 2009 07:35GMT
INTRA-DAY EUR/JPY OUTLOOK - +129.27+
Euro's breach of indicated sup at 129.54 signals
nr term rise fm 129.19 has ended at 130.80 y'day n
downside bias is seen for a re-test of said sup,
however, break is needed to suggest breakout of the
128.78-131.60 range has occured, 128.78 later.
Sell at market n only abv 129.94 (prev. sup) wud
risk stronger rebound twd 130.20/30 b4 down...
Rate: +129.27+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Short at 129.57+
Objective: 129.27
Stop-Loss:
Resistance:129.94/130.36/130.80
Support: 129.19/128.78/128.40
****************************************
Update Time: 17 Dec 2009 03:25GMT
DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - +90.15+
Dlr's upmove fm 87.36 has resumed in part due to
cross selling in yen n further gain to 90.15 is
seen but as broad outlook is consolidative, reckon
daily res at 90.78 wud hold on 1st testing n risk
has increased for a retreat later.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only
below 89.00 aborts n risks correction to 88.50/60.
Rate: +90.15+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 89.40
Objective: 90.15
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 90.78/91.34/92.33
Support: 89.75/89.39/89.00
***************************************
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:1.6198
Last Update At 18 Dec 2009 02:36 GMT
Cable's intra-day rise to 1.6220 suggests fur-
ther consolidation abv y'day's low at 1.6080 wud
continue in Asia n breach of said res wud bring cor
rection of recent decline to 1.6235/40 b4 prospect
of a retreat later.
Stand aside n hold short for day trade. Below
1.6140/50 wud yield weakness to 1.6110 (Australia).
Range Forecast
1.6180 / 1.6220
Resistance/Support
R: 1.6220/1.6269/1.6300
S: 1.6138/1.6110/1.6080
Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 17/12/2009 22:24 All times in GMT
Improved U.S. outlook sparks dollar rally across the board
The greenback surged higher on Thursday as investors reacted to a decidedly upbeat interest rate announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve made earlier on Wednesday, with the most significant comment fm the Fed about the U.S. economy being 'deterioration in the labour market is abating', which traders took as a validation to price-in a future Fed rate hike. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to look at the jobless rate as the key gauge for timing a reversal of its ultra-loose monetary stance.
The euro tumbled in Asian trading as stops were triggered and the single currency hit an intra-day low of 1.4304 , its lowest level since September 7, in New York before stabilizing.
U.K. retail sales came in at -0.3% m/m n 3.1% y/y in November respectively, much weaker than the expectation of 0.4% and 3.5% increase. The British pound tumbled from intra-day high of 1.6340 after the news, reached as low as 1.6080 before recovering in New York on profit-taking.
Although U.S. jobless claims rose unexpectedly to 480,000 (economists' consensus forecast was 465,000) from 473,000 for the previous week, dollar continued to display strength against the yen and rose to intra-day high of 90.38 in NY. However, better-than-expected leading indicators coming out of U.S. rekindled risk appetite and the pair retreated sharply in NY afternoon before stabilizing. U.S. leading indicators rose by 0.9% versus the expectation of 0.7% whilst the Philly Fed also came in higher-than-expected at 20.4 in November against previous month's reading of 16.7.
Data to be released on Friday include Japan BOJ rate decision, U.K. financial stability report, PSNCR, German PPI, eurozone current account and trade balance, Canada wholesales sales data on Friday.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:+1.6152+
Last Update At 21 Dec 2009 00:08 GMT
Similar to euro, cable's rebound fm 1.6053 in
Friday's NY session signals recent decline has made
a temporary low there n although upside bias still
remains for retracement to 1.6190/00, reckon 1.6250
(Fri.'s high) wud cap present rise n yield retreat.
Buy on dips for st trade n sell cable on further
rise for day trade.
Range Forecast
+1.6135 / 1.6170+
Resistance/Support
R: 1.6197/1.6250/1.6275
S: 1.6117/1.6080/1.6053
Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 21/12/2009 22:47 All times in GMT
U.S. dollar continues to gain on year-end short-covering
The dollar continued to strengthen against most of the major currencies amid a relatively thin economic calendar ahead of the Christmas holiday on Friday. Euro recovered to 1.4373 on cross buying in euro due to the firmness in European equities, however, the U.S. stock markets' advance sparked a dollar rally in New York and euro declined to a fresh 3-month low of 1.4267 later in the day.
The British pound briefly recovered to 1.6164 in Asian morning but tumbled to an intra-day low of 1.6030 on active cross selling in sterling especially versus euro (eur/gbp rose from 0.8862 to 0.8930).
Yen traders will be the most active this week with Asian markets having a full schedule and a number of Japanese economic indicators due out for release. The BoJ released their monthly report on Monday in which they still pointed towards a continued recovery but showed a slightly more cautious outlook for exports and production. The yen fell below last Friday's low at 90.91 to 91.24.
Data to be released on Tuesday include New Zealand current account, Australia Westpac leading economic index, Germany Gfk index, Swiss trade balance, U.K. current account, US GDP, PCE, new home sales, new home sales.