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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-27-7-2010
Market Review - 26/07/2010 22:59 GMT
Euro surges above 1.30 as solid US economic data boosts risk appetite
Euro's choppy moves were seen in Monday's Asian morning following Friday's volatile price action in NY after the stress-test results were released. Although euro dipped briefly to 1.2856 in NZ trading as weekend news reported that European regulator CEBS had accused Germany and its banks of reneging on a deal to publish full details of a bank-by-bank disclosure of risk holding of sovereign debts, short-term speculators quickly took profits on lack of follow through selling and traders bought euro vs usd, yen, gbp and chf, lifting the pair to 1.2944 and then 1.2959 before retreating briefly to 1.2889.
However, price then managed to rebound strongly again and euro rose to an intra-day high of 1.3006 after triggering stops above 1.2960/70 on active cross-buying in the single currency in late NY session. The release of stronger-than-expected new U.S. home sales, which jumped 23.6% to 330K in June versus the forecast of 3.3% increase and the previous reading of 32.7% decrease, boosted risk appetite and provided support to euro. Cross-buying in euro lifted the eur/gbp from 0.8325 to 0.8396, while eur/jpy and eur/chf rebounded strongly from 112.21 to 113.32 and from 1.3546 to 1.3632 respectively. Strength in stocks also lifted price as DJI surged by 0.97% and ended the day at 10525.43.
In other news, German Finance Ministry spokeswoman said that the German government believes the market reaction to European banks stress test results showed they had achieved their goals and there was no need for further action on banks. However, she confirmed that Finance Minster Wolfgang Schaeuble saw the need for further consolidation in the Landesbank sector.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback edged higher initially and rose above Friday high of 87.51 to 87.78 in NZ due to escalation of tension on the Korean peninsular after North Korea declared 'sacred war' on U.S. and South Korea as a result of the 2 countries' joint military exercise over the weekend. However, the greenback eased after failure to penetrate the said intra-day high despite broad-based rebound in Asian stocks and fell to as low as 86.82 in Europe on risk aversion due to the initial softness in European equities and U.S. stock futures. Although the greenback bounced to 87.40 in NY morning after the release of stronger-than-expected new U.S. home sales, the pair retreated again and ended the day at 86.88.
In addition, Chief Cabinet Secretary Senoku said the cabinet will ask ministers to cut 2010/11 budget spending by 10%. PBOC's deputy governor Hu Xialian was quoted as saying 'a more flexible exchange rate will help China to keep a lid on inflation and nip asset bubbles in the bud' in her third essay on the central bank's website.
The British pound traded with a firm undertone after showing muted reaction to Hometrack report, which came out before Asian opening. The report showed that U.K. House asking prices in July saw their first fall in 15 months and sterling rose above July's top at 1.5473 to a 3-month high of 1.5521 in NY morning before stabilising.
Economic data to be release on Tuesday include: Japan CSPI, Germany Gfk index, Import price index, U.K. CBI distribution trade, U.S. Consumer confidence, Midwest manufacturing.
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-28-7-2010
Market Review - 27/07/2010 22:10 GMT
Euro pares gains on a drop in U.S. consumer confidence
Although the single currency rose above Monday's NY high of 1.3006 and climbed to 1.3022 in European morning, euro then retreated from there on profit-taking to 1.2963. However, euro rebounded from there and the pair rallied to an 11-week high of 1.3047 due to the firmness in European equities, as solid bank earnings from Swiss bank UBS pushed the European equities up and boosted risk appetites. Later, the single currency retreated from there and fell briefly to an intra-day low of 1.2952 after the release of the lower-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence, which suggested that U.S. recovery was slowing. Euro then traded sideways in NY afternoon and closed the day at 1.2997. FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX rose by 0.27%, 0.83% and 0.21%, respectively.
U.S. consumer confidence fell in July to the lowest level since February, affected mostly by concerns on job market. Consumer confidence dropped to 50.4 from 52.9 in previous month whereas analysts were expecting a fall to 51.0 only.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback initially remained under pressure in Asian morning after Monday's decline to 86.82 due to heavy selling by Japanese exporters and hit an intra-day low of 86.83, however, the pair rebounded and rose sharply in Europe on improved risk appetite due to the firmness in European stock markets as led by financial shares. Dollar then extended its gain after the release of U.S. single-family home price and hit an intra-day high of 87.98 in late NY trading session before easing.
U.S. single-family home prices rose more than expected in May, showing strong spring sales supported by homebuyer tax credit. S&P/Case Shiller home price indexes rose 0.47%, better than the estimate of 0.20%, and the previous reading was revised upward from 0.44% to 0.61%.
Cross selling in yen also supported the usd/jpy pair, as eur/jpy and gbp/jpy rose from 112.79 to 114.42 and from 134.48 to 137.22 respectively.
Although the British pound traded with a firm undertone in Asia after Monday's breach of July's peak at 1.5473 to 1.5530 in Europe, profit-taking knocked sterling down to an intra-day low of 1.5441, however, sterling jumped again after the release of much-stronger-than-expected U.K. CBI trades survey and climbed to a fresh 5-month high of of 1.5600 in late NY session.
U.K. CBI trades survey rose to 33 in July, the highest since April 07, versus the previous reading of -5.
In other news, UK FT reported that Chinese banks may face potential huge risk of default from local government loans. Chinese regulators warned that as much as 20% of the RMB 7.7 trillion (about RMB 1.54 trillion or US$ 227 billion) Chinese banks have lent to local Chinese government entities may end in default. A senior official from the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that all these loans will not necessarily go bad, the nation's non-performing loan ratio will likely 'increase slightly' at the end of this year.
Economic data to be released on Wednesday include: Australia CPI, Germany CPI prelim, HICP prelim, EU ECB bank lending survey, U.S. Durable goods, ex. Defense, ex. Transport and Fed's Beige book .
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GBP/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.5611
Last Update At 28 Jul 2010 05:35 GMT
Cable's resumption of recent upmove after break-
ing y'day's 1.5600 high suggests further gain twd
1.5635/45 is seen but nr term loss of momentum shud
prevent a sharp move beyond there ahead of European
opening n bring retreat later.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated n only below
1.5663 (NY) signals temp. top is made, 1.5541...
Range Forecast
1.5595 / 1.5530
Resistance/Support
R: 1.5636/1.5688/1.5704
S: 1.5541/1.5508/1.5441
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-29-7-2010
Market Review - 28/07/2010 22:52 GMT
Dollar drops versus yen on weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders
Dollar retreated to 87.63 versus the Japanese yen in Asia on Wednesday due to profit-taking after Tuesday's rally from 86.83 to 87.98 but renewed risk appetite on the back of rising Asian stock markets lifted price again and the pair rose briefly to an intra-day high of 88.12 in European morning before selling interest there from Japanese exporters capped its upside, price then dropped to 87.43 in NY morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders, which added worries over U.S. economic outlook and later to as low as 87.25 in late NY trading session as U.S. Fed's Beige book stated that U.S. economic activity continued to increase but not robustly and some districts reported slowing economy.
U.S. new orders for durable goods fell for a straight month in June, recording their largest decline since August 2009. Durable goods orders dropped by 1.0%, much worse than the estimate of 1.0% increase.
In other news, BOJ's policy board member Hidetoshi Kamezaki expressed a cautious view and said Japan is not yet in a strong recovery led by domestic demand. He added he will not decide policy with current forex level in mind and yen rise will push down exports for short term.
The single currency rebounded from 1.2967 in Asian morning after Tuesday's sharp fall from a 10-week high of 1.3047 to 1.2952 and although euro ratcheted higher to an intra-day high of 1.3043 in European morning, it traded with volatility in U.S. session, having rebounded from 1.2974 to 1.3029 before dropping again to as low as 1.2969 in NY afternoon after the release of Fed's Beige book before staging a recovery.
Although the British pound rose from 1.5563 in Asia after Tuesday's rally from 1.5441 to 1.5600 and climbed to 1.5627 in European morning, sterling then fell briefly and sharply to an intra-day low of 1.5545 on dovish comments by BoE Governor Mervyn King, however, renewed buying interest there (especially versus the euro) limited the pair's downside somewhat and cable rose to a five-month high of 1.5638 in NY morning before easing on long liquidation, traded around 1.5580/90 in late NY session.
BoE Governor Mervyn King said in his testimony that Q2 GDP growth was encouraging but must be careful not to read too much into one number and he is not certain that U.K. recovery will be sustained. He added the central bank was focusing on the appropriate degree of stimulus, not applying brake on it.
The Australian dollar tumbled against US dollar from 0.9025 to 0.8908 after the release of Australian Q2 CPI, which came in at 0.6% q/q and 3.1% y/y, lower than the expectations of 1.0% and 3.4% respectively and raised speculation that RBA would keep its interest rate unchanged.
On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%, in line with market expectations but the official statements came with a distinctly dovish tone, making the size and the timing of future rate hikes uncertain. Nzd/usd fell sharply to as low as 0.7202 after RBNZ's rate decision and statements.
Economic data to be released on Thursday include: New Zealand Trade balance (nzd), Imports, Exports, Japan Retail sales, U.K. Nationwide hse price, Germany Unemployment change, Unemployment rate, EU Economic sentiment , Consumer Confidence , Business climate, U.S. Jobless claims and Canada PPI.
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GBP/USD Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.5627
Last Update At 29 Jul 2010 05:00 GMT
Cable has continued to edge higher partly on UK
Chancellor's comments (read mkt mov. news) after
y'day's retreat fm a 5-mth high of 1.5638 to 1.5572
in NY, abv 1.5638 wud extend recent erratic rise to
1.5670/80 b4 prospect of a correction later today.
Exit short n stand aside as below 1.5595/00 need
ed to prolong consolidation n yield 1.5572/75.
Range Forecast
1.5605 / 1.5635
Resistance/Support
R: 1.5638/1.5688/1.5704
S: 1.5572/1.5545/1.5521
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-30-7-2010
Market Review - 29/07/2010 22:56 GMT
Euro surges above $1.3100 on upbeat European economic data
The single currency broke above the $1.31 level for the first time since May as German unemployment decreased while European confidence in the economic outlook rose to the highest level in more than two years this month.
Despite euro's initial brief dip to an intra-day low of 1.2977 in Thursday's Asian morning, the pair then rebounded from there and ratcheted higher on short-covering. The single currency's intra-day rise accelerated after triggering huge stops above 1.3050 level in Europe and supportive EU and German economic data helped price to extend recent erratic upmove to a 12-week high of 1.3107 in NY morning before easing.
Eurozone economic confidence in July rose from 98.7 to a 28-month high of 101.3, better than the estimate of 99.1, while German unemployment fell in July for the thirteenth consecutive month by 20K and the jobless rate dropped to 7.6% from 7.7%. These figures suggest eurozone could overcome the sovereign debt crisis.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure in Asian morning and dropped below Wednesday's low of 87.25 to 87.10 on selling by Japanese exporters before staging a recovery. However, renewed selling interest at 87.45 pushed dollar lower again (despite staging pullback after the release of U.S. jobless data) and the pair fell to an intra-day low of 86.57 in NY session, traded sideways afterwards.
U.S. jobless claims dropped slightly more than expected from the previous reading of 464K to 457K, compared to the estimate of a fall to 460K.
DJI pared most of the intra-day losses (once dropped about 100 points) and closed the day down by only 31 points, or 0.29% at 10467.
In addition, U.S. Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said that any further monetary policy would have as little effect boosting the economy as 'pushing on a string' and lawmakers should act by providing certainty on rules and taxes.
The cable traded narrowly in Asian morning after Wednesday's retreat from 1.5638 to 1.5572 but renewed buying interest on the back of broad-based dollar weakness lifted price from there and the gbp/usd ratcheted higher to a fresh 5-month high of 1.5663 in Europe. Later, despite cable's brief but sharp retreat to 1.5580, sterling managed to recover to 1.5627 before stabilising in NY afternoon.
In other news, UK Chancellor George Osborne said that there is no tacit agreement between U.K. government and BoE's King on keeping rates low, and always believes the greatest stimulatory effect on economy comes from monetary policy.
The Swiss franc surged against dollar and euro on Thursday on speculation that SNB was selling part of its $208billion reserves. Usd/chf tumbled from 1.0580 to a six-month low of 1.0374 in NY while eur/chf declined from 1.3755 to 1.3580.
Advisor of PBOC Zhou Qiren said the yuan can rise or fall under managed float but only in small steps. He added that the more flexible exchange rate regime would allow the PBOC to make more use of various monetary policy tools over the rest 2010.
Economic data to be released on Friday include: U.K. Gfk survey, Japan Manufacturing PMI, Household spending, National CPI, Tokyo CPI, National CPI (core), Unemployment rate, Industrial prod'n, Construction orders, Housing starts, Germany Retail sales, EU HICP flash , EU Unemployment rate, Swiss KOF indicator, Canada GDP, U.S. GDP annualised, GDP deflator, Personal consumption, PCE core, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI and U. Michigan survey.
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by Acetrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.3072
Late Update At 30 Jul 2010 06:09 GMT
Intra-day cross unwinding in eur crosses has
finally lifted euro after initial weakness to 1.30
46 in Asian morning n consolidation with upside
bias is seen but abv 1.3085 needed to signal pull-
back fm 1.3107 is over, yield 1.3125/30 later.
Reinstate long on dips n only below 1.3010/20
wud abort daily bullishness on euro.
Range Forecast
1.3060 / 1.3085
Resistance/Support
R: 1.3085/1.3107/1.3144
S: 1.3046/1.3030/1.3011
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 30/07/2010 22:11 GMT
Dollar falls to a fresh eight-month low against yen on concerns over U.S. economic growth
The greenback remained under heavy selling pressure versus the Japanese yen in Asian morning after Thursday's cross-inspired selloff to 86.57 and briefly penetrated 2010 low of 86.27 to 86.25 in Asian morning due to active buying of yen versus other currencies on risk aversion due to broad-based weakness in Asian stocks. Later, renewed selling at 86.56 in European morning capped intra-day recovery the pair resumed its downtrend and fell to a fresh 8-month low of 85.95 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP, the data showed U.S. economic growth is slowing and reinforced expectations of continuation of low U.S. interest rates. However, dollar pared its losses after the release of U.S. Chicago PMI and rebounded to 86.73 before trading sideways.
U.S. economic growth slowed in Q2 as capital investment driven by business saw imports increasing at their fastest pace since the Q1 of 1984. U.S. GDP expanded at a 2.4% annual rate, versus the economists' forecast of 2.5% and the upward revision of the previous reading from 2.7% to 3.7%.
Business activity in U.S. Midwest grew more than expected in July as businesses boosted employment and orders. Chicago PMI in July rose from 59.1 to 62.3, compared to the estimate of 56.1.
The greenback was also pressured by early news when St. Louis Fed President Bullard said he is concerned on the risk that U.S. might fall into a Japanese-style deflation of falling prices and investment.
In other news, Japan Deputy Finance Minister Motohisa Ikeda said he is worried about the impact of a rising yen on the country's exports. Finance Minister Noda also voiced his concern and said he is watching the forex market closely.
The single currency went through a roller-coaster session on Friday, despite retreating from the previous session's 11-week high of 1.3107 initially at Asian opening, buying interest at 1.3046 lifted euro and price rebounded to an intra-day high of 1.3094 in European opening. However, failure to penetrate said previous day's high prompted investors to sell euro on profit-taking and the single currency tumbled to as low as 1.2980 in European mid-day. Later, euro staged a strong rebound on short-covering and rose back to 1.3071 in NY afternoon before stabilising.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asia and rose to a high of 1.5655 on buying by short-term speculators in European morning. Later, although sterling fell sharply in tandem with euro to an intra-day low of 1.5553, cable staged a strong rebound and later rallied to a fresh 5-month high of 1.5723 after triggering stops above 1.5670 in NY morning as stronger-than-expected U.S. PMI boosted appetite for risky assets, the eur/gbp cross pair fell sharply from 0.8379 to 0.8303.
Sterling was also supported by M&A-related demand, as news came out in Asian mid-day that French EDF has agreed to sell its U.K. electricity grids business to the Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Infrastructure of HK for 5.8 billion pounds.
Economic data to be released next week include:
Swiss Retail sales, PMI , Germany Manufacturing PMI, EU Manufacturing PMI, U.K. Halifax hse prices 3m, Halifax hse prices, Manufacturing PMI, U.S. ISM manufacturing, Construction spending (Canada market is closed for holiday) on Monday, Australia Retail sales, RBA rate decision, Swiss CPI, U.K. PMI construction, EU PPI, U.S. Personal consumption, Personal income, PCE core, PCE index, Pending home sales, Durable goods (rev.), ex. Defense (rev.), ex. Transport (rev.), Factory orders, U.S. Pending home sales on Tuesday, Australia House price index, Trade balance (aud), Germany Services PMI, EU Services PMI, U.K. BRC shop price index, N'wide Consumer Confi., Services PMI, EU Retail sales, U.S. ADP employment, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, New Zealand Unemployment rate, Germany Industrial prod'n, U.K. BOE rate decision, BOE Asset Purchase Target , EU ECB rate decision, U.S. Jobless claims, Canada Building permits on Thursday, Australia Monetary Policy Statement, Japan Leading indicators, Swiss Unemployment rate, U.K. Industrial prod'n, Industrial prod'n, Manufacturing prod'n, PPI input, PPI output, PPI core, Germany Industrial prod'n, Canada Unemployment rate, Net Change in Employment, Ivey PMI , U.S. Avg. hourly earnings, Non-farm payrolls, Unemployment rate on Friday.
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EUR/USD Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.3086
Late Update At 02 Aug 2010 06:11 GMT
As euro has continued to move higher, suggest-
ing pullback fm last week's high of 1.3107 has pos-
sibly ended at 1.2980 n a re-test of said res is
likely but break is needed to extend recent uptrend
to 1.3120/30 b4 correction due to loss of momentum.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated, below wud
prolong choppy trading n risk weakness to 1.3000.
Range Forecast
1.3060 / 1.3094
Resistance/Support
R: 1.3094/1.3107/1.3144
S: 1.3027/1.3001/1.2980
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by Acetrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.3150
Late Update At 03 Aug 2010 06:17 GMT
Although euro has retreated after faltering
below y'day's 3-month 1.3196 high n consolidation
wud be seen, reckon 1.3140/43 wud hold n a rebound
is still likely, however, breach of said res needed
to confirm upmove has once again resumed, 1.3228.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated, break wud
risk stronger pullback to 1.3107.
Range Forecast
1.3150 / 1.3180
Resistance/Support
R: 1.3196/1.3228/1.3267
S: 1.3143/1.3107/1.3090
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