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AceTraderFx Feb 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Feb 2016 03:11GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr went through a coaster-roller ride in volatile Wednesday session. Price fell initially to 111.64 in Asia before staging short-covering rebound to 112.27 after BoJ Gov Kuroda's dovish comments but only to tumble to a 2-week trough of 111.04 as decline in global stocks triggered broad-based buying of yen and chf on risk aversion.
However, rally in the Dow & oil prices in New York afternoon resulted in a ferocious active short-covering in the dlr, price climbed back to as high as 112.21 in Australia, then marginally above there ahead of Tokyo lunch break.
The fact that USD managed to hold above February's 15-month bottom at 110.99 and staged a sharp bounce from 111.04 yesterday, suggesting further choppy sideways swings above 110.99 would continue and as long as global stocks continue to move sideways, then one can expect another try to the upside side in next few days.
Bids are noted at 111.90-80 and more below and a mixture of offers and stops is reported at 112.50/60 area, suggesting buying USD on dips is favoured today.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Feb 2016 04:05GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro trades narrowly in subdued Asian morning after yesterday's roller-coaster session.
Although price came under renewed selling due partly to active selling in eur/yen, price tumbled in Europe after tripping stops below Tuesday's 1.0990, the pair fell to a 3-week trough of 1.0957 at London midday before ratcheting higher to 1.1046 in New York on active short-covering after downbeat U.S. services PMI and new home sales data
Although euro has pared intra-day gain in New York afternoon, the fact that said yesterday's rally from 1.0957 signals a temp. low is made, broad sideways swings are in store and risk has tilted to the upside for more short-covering rise.
Offers are tipped at 1.1045/55 and more above with stops touted above 1.1075, however, there is market chatter of fairly large stops above 1.1100. Initial bids are noted at 1.1005-1.0990 area and more below with stops below 1.0950.
Pay attention to German Gfk consumer confidence for March and German inflation data at 07:00GMT and then Italy's consumer business and consumer confidence at 09:00GMT.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 25 Feb 2016 09:37 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.17
Despite the greenback's selloff to a fresh 2-week trough at 111.04, subsequent strong rebound suggests further choppy trading above February's low at 110.99 would continue with upside bias and gain towards 112.63 is likely to be seen. However, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon resistance at 113.05 should remain intact and bring another fall later today or early tomorrow.
On the downside, only below 111.04 would revive bearishness for a re-test of 110.99, break would confirm recent downtrend has resumed and yield further weakness towards 110.40/50.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 26: IMF at G20 will call for a coordinated stimulus programme to support a slowing global economy
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Feb 2016 01:33GMT
G20 meeting is meet in Shanghai starting today to discuss ways to calm global markets and spur economic growth, and are likely to declare their readiness to take action if conditions worsen.
Chinese policymakers sought on Thursday to reassure trading partners that they can manage their economy and financial markets smoothly while driving structural reforms, following recent concern voiced by foreign officials and economists about Beijing's recent record.
Finance Minister Lou Jiwei and People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan will likely hammer home the message that Beijing has everything under control when they speak this morning.
Global economic malaise and wobbly markets overshadow the meeting of the finance minister and central bank governors of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies on Friday and Saturday.
G20 financial leaders are likely to push for better implementation of the already agreed reforms and an assessment of where implementation is lacking and why. But many economists and officials are sceptical that much would come from the G20.
A report published by IMF called for a coordinated stimulus programme to support a slowing global economy.
Still, an official with the European Union said G20 policymakers recognise elevated risks and likely will declare readiness to act if global economic conditions worsen.
G20 financial leaders are likely to push for better implementation of the already agreed reforms and an assessment of where implementation is lacking and why.
The International Monetary Fund's Christine Lagarde, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney are also scheduled to speak later today.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Feb 2016 04:11GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Despite initial rise above o/n New York high of 113.02 on higher open in the Nikkie (N225 index climbed to 2-1/2 week high of 16472) following yesterday's rally in the Dow, however, the pair pared intra-day gain on a surprise rise in the euro vs usd, price later retreated to 112.68.
Looks like dlr would consolidate below said Asian high due to broad-based usd's weakness until European open.
Offers are tipped above 113.00/10 and more above with stops reported above 113.40.
Initial bids are noted at 112.70-60 with some stops touted below there, however, more buying interest is reported at 112.30-20.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Japan CPI, U.K. consumer confidence, Germany import price index, CPI, Harmonised index of consumer prices, France producer prices, consumer spending, GDP, Italy wage inflation, Eurozone consumer confidence, services sentiment, business climate, industrial sentiment, inflation expectation, selling price expectation, U.S. GDP, personal consumption expenditures, personal income, personal spending, good trade balance, adjusted consumption and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Pay attention to release of important preliminary U.S. Q4 GDP at 13:30GMT as the pair reacted to yesterday's upbeat U.S. durable good order n rallied after the data.
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AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 26 Feb 2016 08:32 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.86
Despite the greenback's selloff to a fresh 2-week trough at 111.04, subsequent strong rebound suggests further choppy trading above February's low at 110.99 would continue with upside bias and gain towards 113.39/40 is likely to be seen.
However, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon resistance at 113.95 should remain intact and bring another fall later today or early tomorrow.
On the downside, only below 111.04 would revive bearishness for a re-test of 110.99, break would confirm recent downtrend has resumed and yield further weakness towards 110.40/50.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 29: G20 financial leaders to inform each other ahead on policy decisions that could devalue currencies
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Feb 2016 00:52GMT
On G20 meeting, Reuters reported that the financial leaders of the world's 20 biggest economies agreed to inform each other in advance about policy decisions that could lead to devaluations of their currencies.
This move is an addition to the traditional declaration in G20 communiques that countries will refrain from competitive evaluations, Dijsselbloem said in Shanghai. The decision was prompted by concerns among some of G20 financial leaders about the possibility of competitive devaluations in Japan or China, he said.
At the same time the communique said the G20 would better monitor capital flows and identify associated risks.
Dijsselbloem said in cases where devaluation is a consequence of monetary policy motivated by real macroeconomic domestic reasons, then members must make sure to inform each other in advance to avoid surprises and this is an extra commitment between the G20 countries that they will refrain from competitive devaluations.
On USD Reuters reported speculators pared bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for a ninth straight week, as net longs fell to their lowest level since the third week of May 2014, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
The value of the dollar's net long position sank to $5.75 billion in the week ended Feb. 23, from $8.31 billion the previous week. It was the second straight week that net dollar longs came in below $10 billion.
The decline in oil and stocks as well as a slowdown in China have pushed back expectations for an interest rate hike by the Fed to some time next year. That's a negative for the dollar, prompting investors to liquidate most of their net long positions on the greenback.
So far on the year, the dollar index has been down 0.6 percent, after posting gains in excess of 9 percent in 2015.
In other currencies, investors pushed net long positions on the yen to their highest level in four years. The expectation is that the Bank of Japan won't do as much quantitative easing as the market expected.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 29: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Feb 2016 04:02GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Despite Friday's rally in New York session to a 1-week high of 114.00 after release of a slew of upbeat U.S. data, dlr fell in choppy Asian trading as decline in Asian stocks except the Nikkie (China Shanghai composite was down 4% earlier) triggered broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion, price weakened to 113.30 after tripping some stops below 113.50.
Looks like choppy trading below 114.00 would be seen with downside bias as offers are noted at 113.50/60 and more at 113.85/90 with stops reported above 114.00.
Some bids are noted at 113.30-20 with stops touted below 113.00.
Do pay attention to U.S. data due out later today which includes Chicago PMI and then pending home sales data, if these data come out weaker than street forecast, then one can expect dlr to come under renewed selling.
Data to be released this week:
New Zealand building permits, Japan industrial production, retail trades, Swiss KOF leading indicator, U.K. mortgage approval, Italy CPI, Eurozone inflation, Canada producer prices, raw materials prices, current account and U.S. Chicago PMI on Monday.
New Zealand term of trade, imports, exports, Australia AIG manufacturing index, building permits, current account, interest rate decision, Japan unemployment rate, jobs/applicants ratio, all household spending, MOF business Capex, manufacturing PMI, China, non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, unemployment change, Eurozone manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. manufacturing PMI, Canada manufacturing PMI, GDP, U.S. Redbook, manufacturing PMI and construction spending on Tuesday.
Australia GDP, Swiss GDP, U.K. construction PMI, Eurozone producer prices, U.S. mortgage application and ADP national employment on Wednesday.
Australia imports, exports, trade balance, China service PMI, France service PMI, unemployment rate, Italy service PMI, Germany service PMI, U.K. service PMI, Eurozone service PMI, retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, unit labour costs, nonfarm productivity, service PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods, non-defense capital and factory orders on Thursday.
Australia retail sales, Italy GDP, U.K. inflation expectations, U.S. unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, manufacturing payrolls, average earning, participation rate, international trade, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, labour productivity and Ivey PMI on Friday.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 29 Feb 2016 04:35 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0925
Euro's intra-day selloff in New York session on Friday after release of a slew of upbeat U.S. economic data and subsequent breach of 1.0957 sup (now res) to a fresh 3-week trough of 1.0911/12.
This suggests recent decline from February's 1.1377 peak to retrace medium-term upmove from 1.0523 (2015 December bottom) would pressure price towards 1.0849 (61.8% r) later this.
Today, outlook remains bearish for weakness to 1.0880/90 after consolidation and only a daily close above 1.0957 would indicate temporary low is in place and risk stronger retracement towards 1.1020/30 but res at 1.1068 (Friday's high) should remain intact.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 1: Japanese capital investment rose slower & corporate profits fell
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
01 Mar 2016 01:15GMT
USD/JPY - .....Earlier Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said he is not considering to compile additional fiscal spending to prop up the economy given that the budget for next fiscal year had not yet cleared parliament, and that the negative interest rate policy is already having positive effects.
Data are out by the Ministry of Finance, the Japanese capital investment rose at a slower pace in October-December and corporate profits fell for the first time in four years in a worrying sign that flagging business spending will weigh on economic growth. The data suggests that revised gross domestic product (GDP) due on March 8 may show Japan's economy contracted more than first reported, adding to the sense of pessimism surrounding the strength of domestic demand.
Japan's robust employment pattern continued, however, with seasonally adjusted unemployment falling in January to 3.2 percent, versus the median estimate for 3.3 percent. The jobs to applicants ratio rose to a 24-year high of 1.28, versus the median forecast of 1.27.
Separate data showed household spending fell more than expected in January, providing further evidence that uncertainty about the economy may be behind consumers cutting expenditure.
Decelerating capital investment and corporate profits are a worrying sign that the government may need to respond with more stimulus measures to prevent business and household activity from weakening further.
A preliminary estimate showed the economy contracted an annualised 1.4 percent in October-December as consumer spending and exports slumped. The 8.5 percent annual increase in capital expenditure in October-December was slower than an 11.2 percent annual gain in July-September.
Japan's household spending fell an annual 3.1 percent in January, more than the median estimate for a 2.7 percent year-on-year decline.
Japan's economy is expected to return to growth in the current quarter, but there are persistent doubts about the outlook. Economists say the government's reforms have not done enough to raise the potential growth rate.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates