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AceTraderFx Feb 18: U.S. Federal Reserve is "not remotely close" to needing to consider negative interest rates
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Feb 18 02:38GMT
Last night at St. Louis, Fed President James Bullard said that the U.S. Federal Reserve is "not remotely close" to needing to consider negative interest rates and despite rising global risks, the U.S. economic outlook remains reasonably strong. There is not a need of the negative rates being used in Europe and Japan to try to encourage growth.
Even as Bullard suggested Fed rate hikes may proceed more slowly than expected, US are just not in the situation sitting here today where we would be thinking about those kinds of moves.
More on his comments, Bullard stressed that there is no advantage in choosing a higher inflation target, with the too-big-to-fail banks that remain an issue, there is a "long way to go" to fix these problems. The effort to curb this too big to fail should focus on ways to limit leverage.
Bullard continued to suggest that it is 'unwise' to continue hiking rates amid falling inflation expectations. The recent decline in equity and corporate bond markets decreases risk of asset bubbles, giving Fed 'more leeway' in its rate hike decisions. With the drop in inflation outlook and financial volatility that have undercut some of the core assumptions around which Fed's December rate hike was based.
The quarterly interest rate path projections of Fed officials may be counter productive, giving markets the sense that rates are on a set path rather than data dependent.
He expects U.S. and global growth to strengthen in 2016, with lower longer-term interest rates providing a boost.
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AceTraderFx Feb 18: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Feb 2016 05:11GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro trades comfortably above yesterday's 1-week low of 1.1106 made in New York morning.
Although the pair bounced briefly back to 1.1157 after release of mildly dovish FOMC minutes, sellers emerged and pressured price back down to 1.1118/18 just ahead of Asian open, however, euro quickly rebounded to 1.1146 and later moved sideways.
Consolidation above 1.1106 is expected to continue in early European trading.
Today is the start of the 2-day EU leader summit meeting. So looks like big moves are unlikely to be seen.
Reasonably good bids are reported at 1.1120-00 area with stops below there.
Offers are tipped at 1.1150/60 and more above with stops touted above 1.1200.
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AceTraderFx: News from BOJ
18 Feb 2016 6:00GMT
USD/JPY- ....... Breaking news on Bank of Japan Ishida's important announcement:-
Quoting from his speech:
BOJ is dissented to adoption of a negative rates because doing so now won't have much positive effect, while effect of the negative rates on stimulating portfolio rebalancing will push down the yield curve limited.
Private borrowing costs are already very low so adopting negative rates and is likely that it won't help boost Capex much more, and even if the negative rates prompts Japan investors to shift assets overseas, that won't stimulate Japan's economic activity either.
He continued that the Japan's financial system is resilient, so they don't think declines in bank stocks reflect jitters over financial system instability. BOJ will need more time to assess impact of negative rate policy on markets and had some doubts of easing policy when markets were so unstable, though that wasn't key reason for dissenting last month.
BOJ when maintaining current ultra-loose policy for too long could affect Japan's now resilient banking system, while given impact on banks, it's important to end deflation as soon as possible and normalise interest rates- if banks become reluctant to sell JGBs this would still push down yields.
Ishida wants to raise topic of global market instability at upcoming G20 meeting and hopes G20 turns out as venue to debate steps to stabilise the markets.
It is important for China, Japan, Europe, U.S. to act appropriately on market instability and the introduction of negative rates is not sign that QQE has reached its limit.
The speech is still continuing.
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AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Feb 2016 03:25GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Dollar is nursing loss during Tokyo lunch session after extending o/n decline to 112.71 as a gap-down open in the Nikkie do to a late retreat in U.S. stocks prompted another wave of broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion, price easily penetrated o/n NY low of 113.14 at Asian open, triggering stops below 113.00.
With the Nikkei index expected to come under pressure in post-lunch session, selling dlr on recovery is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 113.10 n more at 113.30/40 with stops above there.
Initial bids are noted at 112.80-70 with some stops below there.
Pay attention to release to key U.S. inflation data at 13:30GMT. In addition, later today at 15:00GMT, after last week's testimony by Fed Chair Yellen on Capital Hill, Yellen will deliver Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, she will also answer questions from U.S. lawmakers, so any comments on future rate decision will affect dlr's movement.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan all industry activity index, Germany producer price index, U.K. retail sales, public sector net borrowing, CB leading economic index, Eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Canada CPI, core CPI and retail sales.
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AceTraderFx Feb 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Feb 2016 04:36GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Euro pares overnight losses n staged a modest short-covering bounce to 1.1129 after hitting a 2-week trough of 1.1071 in New York morning. Although euro briefly climbed above New York high of 1.1123 after tripping some stops above there, lack of follow-though buying suggests range trading is in store ahead of European open.
Some bids are noted at 1.1100-1.1090 n more below with fairly large stops touted below 1.1060.
Some offers are tipped at 1.1130/40 n more near 1.1150 with stops reported above 1.1180, however, more stops are touted above 1.1200.
The only data due out today in Europe is German Jan PPI, street forecast is looking for a M/M reading of -0.3 vs previous month's figure at -0.5% n Y/Y is expected to come in at -2.0% vs previous reading of -2.3%.
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AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 19 Feb 2016 05:16 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1123
Although euro's break of indicated daily sup at 1.1086 to 1.1071 in New York morning on Thur suggests the medium- term rise from 2015 Dec's 7-1/2 month bottom at 1.0523 has made a top last week at 1.1377, intra-day rebound in Asia today suggests consolidation with near term upside bias is in store, above 1.1150/57 res would bring stronger retracement to 1.1179, however, reckon res at 1.1193 would hold and yield retreat later today or Monday.
Below 1.1071 would extend to 1.1060 (December's high, now sup), however, weakening of downward momentum should keep euro above projected sup at 1.0035/40.
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AceTraderFx Feb 12: Latest News on Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 2016 2:15GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr showed muted reaction to release of downbeat Japan's data. Reuters reported growth in Japan's manufacturing activity slowed sharply in February as new export orders contracted at the fastest pace in three years, a worrying sign that overseas demand is deteriorating rapidly as China's economy slows, a preliminary survey showed on Monday.
The Markit/Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.2 in February on a seasonally adjusted basis from a final 52.3 in January.
But it remained above the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the 10th consecutive month.
The sub-index for new export orders fell to a preliminary 47.9 from 53.1 in January, which would indicate the biggest contraction since February 2013 if confirmed in final data.
Exports in January tumbled by the most since the global financial crisis, in a clear indication that financial market turmoil and slowing emerging market economies have eroded demand abroad.
Under pressure from faltering global demand, total new orders from customers at home and overseas also changed direction and contracted, while job creation cooled to a five-month low.
Companies cut selling prices for the third month in a row, and more sharply than in January, likely reflecting both falling commodity prices and sluggish demand.
Japan's economy contracted more than expected in the fourth quarter due to weak household spending and exports.
While analysts expect a moderate recovery this year, stagnant wages, depressed consumer prices and faltering global growth have raised fresh doubts about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cocktail of stimulus policies aimed at re-energising the economy and quashing years of deflation.
More data to be released.
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AceTraderFx Feb 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 201604:28GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares Friday's loss and climbs in Asian morning on broad-based modest bounce in Asian equities, the Nikkie is up nearly 1%.
Although the pair came under renewed selling at Monday open in New Zealand on renewed cross-buying vs eur and esp vs sterling, buying emerged above Friday's 112.31 low lifted price from 112.38 to intra-day high of 113.05.
Looks like choppy trading above 112.31 would continue n if European stocks also move higher, then one can expect more yen-selling later in the day.
Bids have been raised to 112.70-60 and more above 112.30 with stops reported below there. Some offers are tipped at 112.10/20 with stops touted above 113.40.
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AceTraderFx Feb 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 2016 05:08 GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Despite staging a modest rebound from Friday's 2-week low of 1.1067 to 1.1138 in New York session, intra-day selloff in the pound dragged euro lower, price retreated to 1.1104 in Asian morning before edging higher.
Order book is pretty thin on this Asian morning with some bids noted at 1.1100-1.1090 n more below with stops touted below 1.1060. Offers are tipped at 1.1130/40 with some stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 1.1150/60.
Expect range trading above 1.1067 to continue as market awaits release of a slew of mfg & services PMIs to come with France's PMIs at 08:00GMT, Germany's at 08:30GMT, Italy's & EU's at 09:00GMT. Germany's Bundesbank will also release its month report at 11:00GMT.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates