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AceTraderFx Mar 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Mar 2016 05:17GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Euro maintains a firm undertone in Asian morning following yesterday's intra-day rally from European low of 1.0940 to 1.1026 as strong gains in oil and metals' prices led to broad-based usd selling.
The single currency met renewed buying at 1.1010/11 in Asia and climbed marginally above said o/n 1.1026 high to 1.1028.
Although yesterday's rally to 1.1026 signals re-test of last Friday's post-NFP peak at 1.1044 is on the cards, traders cited offers at 1.1060/70 and these may limit intra-day gain.
For now, buying euro on pullback for resumption of last week's upmove is favoured, bids have been raised to 1.1010/00 and more below, some offers are tipped at 1.1040/45 with stops above there.
Pay attention to a slew of eco. data due out in European starting with Germany's industrial production, France's trade data and EU's revised Q4 GDP data.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Mar 2016 02:28GMT
GBP/USD - ...... The Bank of England(BoE) is still more likely to raise interest rates than to cut them over the next two years, but it has plenty of scope to stimulate the economy if needed, said Martin Weale who is BoE policy maker, he challenged the view among some investors that central banks had run out of ammunition to boost their economies at a time when the world's recovery from the financial crisis has slowed.
He continued to say that If needed, the BoE could cut rates below their current record low of 0.5 percent or launch a new round of quantitative easing, possibly purchasing private-sector assets.
Banks in London have also backed staying in and last week the City of London, the municipal authority for the financial district, also formally supported staying.
On news about Brexit, sources have said that U.S. banks Morgan Stanley and Citi have said there could be a backlash against Britain as a financial centre if it left the EU. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have made donations to the campaign to keep Britain in.
London mayor Boris Johnson, who is campaigning to pull Britain out of the EU, has said leaving would be a "golden opportunity" and has dismissed "threats" from banks to relocate from London.
While Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said less favourable exit terms under a Brexit would see some banking operations move to Ireland or continental Europe.
TheCityUK said if Britain left, it could not be assumed that EU regulators would be able to live with big EU financial services businesses maintaining their current level of assets in London if markets there were subject to different rules.
heCityUK also represents related services like accounting and law firms, which, together with the banks, employ some 2.2 million people.
The finance industry accounts for nearly 12 percent of the British economy and pays 66 billion pounds ($93.75 billion) a year in tax, making it the biggest contributor to government coffers of any business sector.
TheCityUK, which has already stated that Britain is better off staying in the EU, listed the drawbacks of any potential alternatives to membership, such as still having to contribute money to the EU for access to the single market while having no say over its financial rules.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 9: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Mar 2016 03:08GMT
USD/JPY- ...... Dollar met renewed selling at 112.76 just ahead of Tokyo open and then fell 1 tick below yesterday's low at 112.42 (New York) as renewed weakness in the Nikkei at the open (currently down 267 points at 16515) following o/n decline in the Dow triggered more yen-buying on risk aversion.
Although the pair has staged a minor recovery on lack of follow-though selling, as Asian bourses are in the red, suggesting selling the greenback on recovery is still favoured. Offers are tipped at 112.75/85 and more above with stops reported above 113.30.
Initial bids are noted at 112.45-40 with some stop touted below 112.10.
As no major U.S. economic data are due out later today, traders will take cue from intra-day performance of European and U.S. stocks.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machine tool orders, France nonfarm payroll, U.K. manufacturing output, GDP estimate, industrial output, U.S. mortgage application, wholesale inventories, wholesale sale, Canada rate decision, New Zealand rate decision.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Mar 2016 05:04GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro has come under broad-based selling right at Asian open following yesterday's sharp retreat from 1.1058 to 1.0993 in New York session. Intra-day decline gathered pace once stops below 1.0990 were tripped, price weakened to 1.0974 ahead of Tokyo lunch session.
The lack of a short-covering bounce suggests price would remain under pressure as euro bears have returned after yesterday's short squeeze to 1.1058.
Offers have been lowered to 1.0990/00 and more above with stops above 1.1060.
On the downside, a mixture of bids and stops is reported near 1.0940. No major European data is due out today as market focus is on Thursday's ECB monetary policy meeting, so technical trading should influence intra-day price swings.
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duplicate thrread
ECB is expected to cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Mar 2016 01:40GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro pares yesterday's rally from 1.0946 to 1.1035 in Asia SS market remains nervous ahead of today's ECB meeting. ECB is set to unveil its second stimulus cocktail in three months on Thursday, spurred by fears that low energy costs are feeding into wages and prices, potentially perpetuating ultra-low inflation.
The euro zone's central bank is widely expected to cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory and adjust its 1.5 trillion euro asset-buying scheme, hoping to boost prices after inflation dipped back into negative territory last month.
The ECB has little to show for the 700 billion euros it has spent buying government bonds and other assets in the past year, as tumbling raw materials prices blunt the impact of its quantitative easing. That raises the risk that people will lose faith in the bank's commitment to its mandate, dragging down long-term price expectations.
Inflation has been below the ECB's nearly 2 percent target for three years and is likely to remain so for many more.
Draghi has already said that acting too soon is better than acting too late, and that the rate meeting needs to recognise that the outlook for growth and inflation have deteriorated. But with policy already deep in unconventional territory, the ECB has few big guns left and most remaining options risk either negative side effects or potential legal challenges, suggesting the Governing Council will opt for a package of modest measures.
Analysts polled expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent, charging banks more for keeping their cash with the bank overnight. They also see a 60 percent chance the ECB will raise its monthly asset purchases, probably by 10 billion euros to 70 billion euros a month.
It could also firm up its forward guidance, drop a self-imposed limit not to buy assets yielding less than its deposit rate and launch a new targeted longer-term refinancing operation, possibly at a negative rate, to help boost lending, growth and eventually inflation.
But more radical ideas, like an even deeper rate cut, a multi-tier deposit rate, or buying non-performing bank loans, are unlikely to gain traction within the diverse 25-member Governing Council that has shunned radical steps in several earlier tweaks of its asset-buying programme.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 10: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Mar 2016 03:23GMT
USD/JPY - ..... In stark contrast to yesterday's weakness in Asian morning, dlr resumed o/n rally and climbed above o/n New York high of 113.45 after meeting renewed buying at 113.15, price climbed to 113.69 as o/n gain in oil prices plus intra-day rise in the Nikkie boosted risk sentiment, triggering another wave of broad-based yen-selling.
Although intra-day firmness suggests near term upside bias remains, as broad outlook continues to be consolidative, gain above previous strong res at 114.26/27 is not envisaged especially no major U.S. eco. data is due out except the weekly U.S. jobless claims data.
Bids are noted at 113.25-15 with stops below 113.00.
Offers are tipped at 113.80/90 with some stops touted above 114.00, however, more selling interest is reported at 114.15/25.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan domestic corporate goods price index, Australia inflation expectation, China producer price index, consumer price index, Germany export, import, trade balance, current account, France industrial output, U.K. housing survey, Eurozone interest rate decision, U.S. initial jobless claims, Canada new housing price index and capacity utilization
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 10 Mar 2016 09:08GMT
USD/JPY - 113.60
Despite the greenback's rally to 114.56 last Tuesday, subsequent sharp retreat to 113.12 last Friday on poor U.S. wage growth data suggests further choppy trading below February's high at 114.88 would continue with mild downside bias and marginal weakness towards 112.80/90 is likely to be seen.
However, as broad-outlook remains consolidative, reckon price would hold well above support at 112.38 and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 114.56 would revive bullishness for a re-test of 114.88, break would confirm erratic upmove from 110.99 has once again resumed and extend towards 115.30/40.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
11 Mar 2016 02:00GMT
USD/JPY ..... A government survey showed that the Japanese business sentiment worsened sharply in the first quarter, suggesting that financial market turbulence and sluggish global demand were taken a toll on a fragile economic recovery.
The data keeps pressure on policymakers to deploy additional fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to reflate an economy that is skirting another recession.
The business survey index (BSI) of sentiment at large manufacturers stood at minus 7.9 in January-March, swinging from plus 3.8 in October-December, according to a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office.
The index measuring big manufacturers' sentiment three months ahead stood at minus 3.5, a sign the gloomy outlook may discourage companies from boosting wages or capital expenditure, given sluggish demand in China and other emerging Asian markets.
Companies expect capital expenditure to have risen 8.8 percent in the current fiscal year ending in March, but shrink 6.6 percent in the coming business year, the survey showed.
The world's third-largest economy shrank in the final quarter of 2015 as slow wage growth and sluggish global demand hurt consumption and exports.
While many analysts expect growth to have rebounded modestly in the current quarter, the bleak outlook for global demand has led some to predict another contraction that will push Japan back into technical recession - defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction.
The BSI measures the percentage of firms that expect the business environment to improve from the previous quarter minus the percentage that expect it to worsen.
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday that he hoped the BOJ would continue its efforts to achieve its 2 percent price target, while suggesting that specific monetary policy steps were up to the central bank to decide.
The adoption of negative interest rates by the BOJ is already having an impact such as bringing down housing loan rates.
The BOJ is set to hold off cutting interest rates at next week's rate review, as it scrambles to soothe market jitters which was caused by January's surprise decision to adopt.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
11 Mar 2016 04:02GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro trades relatively with a firm undertone after yesterday's 'spectacular' rally from 1.0821 (interbank low) to as high as 1.1218. Although the single currency tanked from 1.0990 top a fresh 1-month trough of 1.0821 after ECB cut interest rate n expanded its bond purchase programme as expected, short-covering quickly lifted the pair to 1.1116 and intra-day rally continued after ECB's Draghi said rate cuts are done for now at the Q&A press conference, price later climbed to as high as 1.1218 after tripping a series of stops on the way up.
Despite intra-day firmness, yesterday's 1.1218 high is likely to hold until European open as Asia traders are reluctant to take the pair higher as profit-taking offers by U.S. & European traders should prevent strong gain.
Offers are tipped at 1.1210/20 with some stops above there, some bids are noted at 1.1160-50 with some stops touted below there.
Germany will release final inflation data at 07:00GMT followed by Italy's industrial production at 09:00GMT.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates