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AceTraderFx Feb 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Feb 2016 04:20GMT
GBP/USD ........Over the weekend, Reuters reported that a clear majority of Britons do not expect Prime Minister David Cameron to get a good deal in his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership terms, adding to the pressure on him ahead of next week's meeting of leaders.
Cameron is hoping to clinch a deal with his European Union peers at a summit on Feb. 18-19 which he can then put before the British public in a referendum on whether to remain in the 28-member bloc.
Opinion polls suggest the country is evenly divided on whether to stay or leave, and much could depend on how they view any final agreement achieved with the rest of the EU.
The latest ComRes survey for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror newspapers found that by nearly three to one, Britons were expecting that Cameron would not get a good deal for Britain.
That was the view of 58 percent of those polled, while only 21 percent thought he would get a good agreement. The survey also had a worrying message for those who want to stay in the EU and hope to use the argument that Britain's economy will suffer if it leaves.
While 39 percent said they agreed Britain would be better off in the bloc, 36 percent felt the economy would be better off outside.
AceTraderFx Feb 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Feb 201604:38GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Euro came under renewed selling pressure after a brief bounce from 1.1216 ahead of Asian open to 1.1269, with Asian stocks generally rallying (except China) on the 1st trading day of the week, euro and yen are expected to be sold.
With EX trade number the only economic data due out, technical trading should pressure the single currency lower.
Offers are noted at 1.1240/50 and more above with stops above 1.1275, some bids are reported at 1.1215/05 with stops touted below 1.1200.
Over the weekend Reuters reported ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said that the Europe's financial market turmoil could delay a rise in inflation even further and banks will need to be fixed with forceful action over time.
The euro area inflation outlook is already weighed down by sharply lower oil prices and slowing global growth, and the market volatility is compounding the problem.
Coeure said that if that (volatility) continues for too long, it can also increase the risk of a rise in inflation being delayed; Euro zone bank shares are down nearly 30 percent since the start of the year on concerns about profitability, potentially increasing the cost of capital for banks and holding back lending. That could reduce the effectiveness of the ECB's 1.5 trillion asset buying program, its key monetary policy tool.
The ECB is buying assets, mostly government bonds, to boost lending and raise inflation back to its target of nearly 2 percent from around zero after three straight years of misses.
AceTraderFx Feb 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 15 Feb 2016 09:07 GMT
USD/JPY - 113.82
Although intra-day broad-based rally in Asian stocks (except China) has pushed dollar above Fri's 113.53 high (New York) to 114.10, confirming recent downtrend has indeed formed a temporary low at last Thursday's 15-month trough at 110.99, near term overbought condition would prevent strong gain above 114.21/26 and yield subsequent retreat.
Below 113.17/27 (previous res area, now sup) signals 1st leg of correction is over and brings stronger retracement to 111.59/64 later today or tomorrow.
AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2016 01:16GMT
AUD/USD- ...... Aud rose after release of RBA minutes. Reuters reported Australia's central bank said the pace of economic growth should pick up gradually in the next few years without inflation being a problem, a benign mix that might provide it with the scope to cut interest rates further if needed.
In minutes of its Feb. 2 meeting, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at a record low 2.0 percent, the central bank reiterated that very low rates and a weaker local dollar were already underpinning growth.
Based on the available data and the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting,the central bank said.
There continued to be evidence that very low interest rates were supporting growth in household consumption and dwelling investment and that the depreciation of the exchange rate was boosting demand for domestic production as it adjusted to the evolving economic outlook.
There was nothing in the minutes to suggest that the central bank has shifted its conditional easing bias. The Board noted that the outlook for continued low inflation may provide scope for easier monetary policy, should that be appropriate to lend further support to demand.
Highlighting the RBA's level-headed approach to things, the Board began their discussion with developments in the domestic economy, while shrugging off the hysteria surrounding the recent turmoil in global financial markets.
The RBA said whether financial market turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand remained to be seen, their next meetsing due on March 1.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, inflation expectation, Italy trade balance, U.K. CPI, core CPI, retail price index, producer price index, house price index, Germany ZEW current situation, economic sentiment, Eurozone economic sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales, U.S. housing market index, overall capital flows, foreign buying T-bond, NY Empire State manufacturing index and net long-term TIC flows.
ceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2016 02:18GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro tumbled to session lows of 1.1128 after dovish comments by ECB's Draghi. Reuters report on ECB President Mario Draghi backing a plan to revive Europe's weakened market for asset-backed securities (ABS), saying on Monday that it was well designed to strengthen the sector while guaranteeing financial stability.
ABS are securities based on pooled loans such as mortgages. The continent's ABS market has shrunk to half its size since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 which was triggered by a collapse of this sector in the United States.
The European Commission proposed in September a plan to relaunch ABS in Europe by lowering capital requirements for a new category of "simple, transparent and standardised" (STS) debt.
The EU executive Draghi proposals represent a very strong package that achieved a balance between the need to revive the European securitisation market and the need to preserve the prudential regulatory framework.
He told the economic and monetary affairs committee of the European Parliament in Brussels that the ECB is preparing a formal opinion on the Commission's proposals.
The 28 EU states have approved the legislative package a few weeks after its publication, in an unusual example of quick EU legislative process.
The European Parliament needs to vote on the package before it can be turned into law. The ECB has bought 17.8 billion euros of ABS as part of a debt-buying programme started in November 2014 to help banks diversify funding sources and revamp the market for credit in Europe.
AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2016 03:45GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr maintains a firm undertone following yesterday's strong gain to 114.73 due to rally in European stocks. Despite initial boot of profit-taking and selling by Japanese exporters, renewed buying interest emerged at 114.29/30 lifted the pair n price ratcheted higher to marginal high of 114.77.
Although market remains on risk-on mode, modest gain in the Nikkie (currently up less than 1%) suggests a repeat of yesterday's strong rise is unlikely.
Bids are noted at 114.30-20 and more below with stops touted below 114.00.
Offers are tipped at 114.80/90 and more above with some stops reported above 115.00. Therefore, whilst buying dlr on dips is still favoured, profit should be profited and should be taken on next rise.
AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2016 04:05GMT
GBP/USD - ..... Cable is nursing loss after yesterday's selloff from 1.4536 (Europe) to as low as 1.4414 shortly after N. American midday on dovish comments by MPC official. Reuters reported earlier sterling fell around half a percent against the dollar on Monday after Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty said inflationary pressures had fallen, although he still expected the next interest rate move to be up.
Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, McCafferty, who dropped his lone call to hike interest rates earlier this month, said the central bank was not "out of ammunition" if it needed to fight a renewed downturn by cutting interest rates or restarting its bond-buying programme.
He said the more important driver for sterling this week would be a two-day summit starting on Thursday at which Prime Minister David Cameron will try to clinch a deal to keep Britain in the European Union.
The cost of hedging against swings in sterling's value over the next week has jumped to its highest since Britain's general election last May, as investors brace for volatility stemming from the summit.
Some banks predict falls of up to 20 percent in sterling's value if Britons vote to leave the EU, although polls suggest that the most likely scenario - just - is that Britain remains in the European Union.
Against the euro, sterling bounced back from a 14-month low, helped by better appetite for riskier currencies and assets. It traded up half a percent at 77.195 pence per euro, having traded as weakly as 78.975 pence per euro on Thursday.
The single currency tends to move in sync with safe-haven assets due to its low yield and often underperforms when global stocks and commodities rise. Sterling, on the other hand, tends to rise along with risk appetite, on account of its higher interest rate and large current account deficit.
Sterling traders be focused on monthly British inflation data due on Tuesday, which expected to show a rise of 0.3 percent year-on-year. Wage growth data will be released on Wednesday.
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AceTraderFx Feb 17: Fed Rosengren stressed the central bank needs to ratchet down December's economic forecasts
17 Feb 2016 02:38GMT
USD/MAJORS - Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren earlier who commented that the Federal Reserve should be "unhurried" as it considers when to again raise interest rates given problems overseas and financial market volatility that will likely dampen already low U.S. inflation.
Going a step further than cautious comments he made last month, & stressed that the U.S. central bank would need to ratchet down economic forecasts it made in December because oil prices have continued to fall amid turbulent markets and a global economic slowdown.
The Fed raised rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade, Rosengren a voter on policy this year and an influential dove at the Fed. said that a more gradual approach is an appropriate response to headwinds from abroad that slow exports and financial volatility that raises the cost of funds to many firms.
The comments reinforce the view among investors that U.S. central bankers have been spooked by a world selloff in stocks and oil based on fears of a broader slowdown, despite a relatively solid economic performance in the United States.
The Fed in mid-December published forecasts suggesting four more rate hikes would come this year. But Rosengren said those would likely be adjusted at the U.S. central bank's mid-March policy meeting because weak energy prices and a strong dollar would depress U.S. inflation into the spring. Persistently low prices may even indicate that Americans' inflation expectations are "becoming less well anchored," a red flag for any central bank.
Even while core U.S. inflation is 1.4 percent, below the 2 percent target, a relatively new measure of expectations tumbled to its lowest ever levels last month. Rosengren further said that while it is likely that much of the fourth-quarter weakness is due to temporary factors ... if more pronounced global weakness were to materialize and be transmitted to the U.S., he personally believe there would be little need to raise rates until the economy was growing closer to its potential rate.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 17: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Feb 2016 03:27GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Despite yesterday's intra-day gain to 114.88 in Asia, the pair tumbled to 113.65 in European morning a selloff in oil price damped risk sentiment, price later weakened to 113.59 in New York morning before rebounding as rise in U.S. stocks triggered short-covering.
Although dlr extended said o/n gain to 114.40 in early Asian trading due to initial marginal gain in the Nikkie, price quickly erased intra-day gain and retreated to 113.87 as the Nikkie edged lower to negative territory.
Looks like choppy sideways trading with downside bias is in store as the Nikkei swing for small gain to loss.
Offers are tipped at 114.30/40 and more above with stops reported above 114.88.
Initial bids are noted at 113.90-80 and more below with stops touted below 113.50.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac leading index, Japan machinery order, U.K. unemployment rate, average earning, unemployment change, Swiss investor sentiment, Eurozone construction output, U.S. mortgage application, build permits, housing starts, producer price index, Redbook, industrial production and capacity utilization.
http://www.acetraderfx.com
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Feb 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 17 Feb 2016 05:03 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1142
Despite intra-day anticipated brief break of yesterday's 1.1124 low to 1.1119 at Asian open, as recent decline from last Thursday's 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1377 is losing 'downward momentum', steep fall is not envisaged today and reckon euro's downside would hold well above last week's 1.1086 low and bring subsequent rebound.
On the upside, above 1.1147/52 would be the 1st signal said decline has possibly made a temporary low and bring gain to re-test Tuesday's 1.1193 high, break there would yield stronger retracement to 1.1245/50 later.
http://www.acetraderfx.com
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates