Intraday trading signal - page 206
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AceTraderFx Nov 3: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (AUS/USD)
03 Nov 2015 07:00GMT
AUS/USD - ...... Aussie trades near Asian high of 0.7213 after RBAQ stood pat in its rate decision. Reuters reported earlier Australia's central bank kept its cash rate steady at a record low of 2.0 percent on Tuesday, but said subdued inflation meant there might be room for a further easing if needed to support the economy.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) disappointed some by not cutting straight away at its monthly policy meeting, though the shift to an explicit easing bias kept alive the prospect of a move at some stage.
In a brief statement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the outlook for the economy had actually "firmed a little" in recent months with business conditions improving and employment stronger than expected.
"(Board) Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand," he added.
Debt markets seemed to suggest investors were not counting on the RBA cutting by year end. Interbank futures for December slid to imply around a 36 percent chance of an easing, from above 70 percent earlier in the day. A drop to 1.75 percent is fully priced in by April.
Since last easing in May, RBA officials have sounded reluctant to cut even further in part for fear of inflating a debt-driven bubble in home prices.
There have also been hopeful signs of a pick up in non-mining investment with business conditions, confidence and borrowing all improving.
Yet, speculation about a cut had mounted after Australia's major banks last month decided to lift mortgage rates in an effort to shield profits from rising regulatory costs.
A surprisingly low reading on price pressures out last week had added to the talk. Underlying inflation slowed to an annual 2.15 percent in the third quarter, near the floor of the RBA's long-term target band of 2 to 3 percent.
With the broader economy still weighed by falling mining investment and weak commodity prices, some analysts had argued an easing would be warranted in the next few months.
AceTraderFx Nov 3: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time:03 Nov 2015 08:22 GMT
USD/JPY - 120.71
Despite dollar's intra-day rally from 120.30 to 121.48 in Asia on Friday following the release of Bank of Japan unchanged rate decision, subsequent retreat after being capped below Monday's 7-week peak at 121.51 suggests further choppy trading inside near term established range of 121.51-120.02 would continue.
Above 121.48/51 would bring resumption of upmove from October's bottom at 118.06 to 121.74 and then 122.10/20, whilst below 120.02 would confirm a top has been made instead and yield correction towards 119.62 next.
AceTraderFx Nov 4: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 Nov 2015 01:10GMT
USD/JPY - ........ The greenback found renewed buying at 120.60 in early European morning and rose to session high 121.23 New Yoyk morning on broad-based dlr strength.
However, profit-taking offers there pressured the pair lower n price retreated to 120.94 in New York afternoon. Later, price found renewed support and gained ahead of Asian open before rallying to 121.26 in Tokyo morning due to the 350+ points rally in Nikkei-225 index.
Market focus now shifts on Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at 15:00GMT, who will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Federal Reserve actions and plans for bank regulation and supervision. Although the focus of the talk is not monetary policy, traders shouldd look out for any hints dropped by the Chief about a possible rate hike in December.
Bids are now seen at 121.00/10 and more below at 120.80/90 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 121.70/80, suggesting buying on dips is the way to go.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand HLFS jobs reports, labour cost index, Australia AIG service index, trade balance, exports, imports, retails sales, UK BRC shop price index, China Caixin service PMI, Japan consumer confidence, Markit service PMI for Italy, France, Germany, euro zone and UK, euro zone producer price, U.S. ADP national employment, international trade, Markit service PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade reports
AceTraderFx Nov 4: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 Nov 2015 01:32GMT
EUR/USD - ......... Despite edging up to session high at 1.1030 in early European morning, the single currency tumbled to intra-day low at 1.0936 in New York morning on dlr strength together with cross-selling of euro vs sterling.
Euro gained some respite and recovered to 1.0970 in New York afternoon, however, o/n dovish comments from ECB's Draghi (see prev. MMN) pressured the pair lower nand price dropped to 1.0945 in Asian morning.
Eurozone will release its final print for the services PMIs for several countries n majority of them are expected to come in unchanged. Elsewhere, ECB Chief Mario Draghi will speak at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision in Frakfurt at 08:00GMT.
Offers have now been lowered to 1.0970/80 and more above at 1.0990/00 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.0910/20, suggesting selling on recovery for a resumption of recent losing streak is favoured.
AceTraderFx Nov 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time:04 Nov 2015 01:28 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0947
Despite the single currency's strong rebound from last Wednesday's low at 1.0896 to as high as 1.1073 last Friday, subsequent sharp retreat to 1.0936 yesterday strongly suggests the correction is over and consolidation with downside bias would be seen, below 1.0925 would confirm this view and yield resumption of recent erratic downtrend for a re-test of said support, break would extend towards 1.0867/70 before prospect of a recovery later this week.
On the upside, only above resistance at 1.1030 would indicate the pullback from 1.1073 has ended and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of 1.1073, break, 1.1096.
AceTraderFx Nov 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 04 Nov 2015 08:22 GMT
USD/JPY - 121.15
Despite dollar's intra-day rally from 120.30 to 121.48 in Asia on Friday following the release of Bank of Japan unchanged rate decision, subsequent retreat after being capped below Monday's 7-week peak at 121.51 suggests further choppy trading inside near term established range of 121.51-120.02 would continue.
Above 121.48/51 would bring resumption of upmove from October's bottom at 118.06 to 121.74 and then 122.10/20, whilst below 120.02 would confirm a top has been made instead and yield correction towards 119.62 next.
AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
05 Nov 2015 01:13GMT
USD/JPY - ......... The greenback found renewed buying at 121.00 at European open yesterday and gained to 121.34 in European morning, then rallied to intra-day high at 121.72 in New orkY morning on dlr's broad-based strength following the release of upbeat U.S. services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data.
However, profit-taking offers there capped intra-day gains and price retreated. Dlr continues to remain under pressure in Tokyo morning after the release of BoJ minutes, weighed by broad-based buying of JPY.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is for a slight increase to 262K from previous reading of 260K.
Bids are now lowered to 121.30/40 and more below at 121.10/20 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 121.90/00, suggesting buying on dips is still the favored strategy.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes, Switzerland consumer confidence, CPI, Germany industrial orders, euro zone retail sales, U.K. BoE inflation report, BoE MPC vote outcome, BoE rate decision, U.S. initial jobless claims, unit labour cost, productivity, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Nov 5: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 05 Nov 2015 01:28 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0870
Despite the single currency's strong rebound from last Wednesday's low at 1.0896 to as high as 1.1073 last Friday, subsequent sharp selloff and breach of said lower level to 1.0844 yesterday on hawkish comments from Fed's Yellen signals recent erratic decline from 1.1715 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 1.0808/10, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.0774, yield correction.
On the upside, only above resistance at 1.1030 would indicate the pullback from 1.1073 has ended and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of 1.1073, break, 1.1096.
AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
05 Nov 2015 07:35GMT
EUR/USD- ........ Despite gaining respite in Asia and staged a minor recovery to 1.0877 after yesterday's selloff to a 3-month trough of 1.0844 in New York, the pair came under renewed selling pressure as euro bears gave the single currency a fresh bashing on downbeat German data at European open.
Reuters reported German industrial orders dropped unexpectedly in September, the third consecutive monthly fall, due mainly to weaker foreign demand, data showed on Thursday, in a sign that Europe's biggest economy may loose steam at the end of this year.
Contracts for 'Made in Germany' goods were down by 1.7% on the month, the economy ministry said. That compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for a rise of 1.0%.
German factories received 2.4% fewer bookings from abroad, driven by a 6.7% slide in demand from euro zone countries, while domestic orders fell by 0.6%.
The data for August was confirmed as a 1.8% fall.
"Overall, the industrial orders are currently in a weak phase," the ministry said.
News from Reuters, on ECB's SMETS comments:
-Sees risk that inflation expectations become unanchored.
-Governing council will make fresh assessment of the situation at next meeting.
-All options open to ECB, could adjust scope, make-up and term of bond purchases.
AceTraderFx Nov 5: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 05 Nov 2015 08:17 GMT
USD/JPY - 121.62
The greenback's rally to 121.72 in New York morning yesterday on upbeat U.S. economic data together with hawkish comments from Fed's Yellen and intra-day breach of this level signals recent erratic upmove has resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain towards 122.15/20, however, loss of momentum would prevent strong gain above there and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 121.00 would indicate a temporary top has been made and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement to 120.50/60.