Intraday trading signal - page 138
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AceTraderFx Jan 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Jan 2015 06:52GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Dlr tumbles to a fresh 3-week low of 116.75 in heavy Asian trading.
Despite initial recovery from Tuesday's NY low of 117.53, renewed selling emerged at 117.96 (Aust.) and knocked price to lower 117.50 shortly after Tokyo open.
Renewed weakness in the Nikkei (N225 closed down nearly 300 points at 16795 - a near 3-week low) triggered broad-based yen buying on risk aversion n the pair remained under pressure throughout Asian session after tripping stops below 117.00.
The lack of a rebound ahead of European open suggests intra-day downward pressure remains and looks like any rebound in the dlr would be ltd in European session as more stops are touted below 116.25, then below 116.00.
Offers are tipped at 117.20/30 n more at 117.50/60, so selling dlr on recovery is the way to go.
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 Jan 2015 00:08GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.0187
55 HR EMA
1.0170
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
58
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bais
Resistance
1.0302 - 100% proj. of 1.0033-1.0217 fm 1.0118
1.0267 - 80.90% proj. of 1.0033-1.0217 fm 1.0118
1.0218 - Y'day's fresh 4-year high
Support
1.0118 - Mon's low
1.0095 - Last Wed's low
1.0033 - Last Mon's Asian low
. USD/CHF - 1.0197 ... Despite falling briefly to session low at 1.0127 in Asian morning y'day, the greenback quickly rebounded on intra-day retreat in eur/usd. Price then ratcheted higher in Europe n rose to a fresh 4-year peak at 1.0218 in NY morning on renewed euro's weakness b4 retreating on profit-taking.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dlr's brief breach of last Thur's 4-year peak at 1.0217 suggests the 3-legged upmove fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 has once again resumed n further gain twd 1.0232 (61.8% projection of 1.0033-1.0217 fm 1.0118), then 1.0267 (80.9% projection). However, as the hourly indicators wud display prominent 'bearish divergences' on such move, strg gain abv there is unlikely to be seen n reckon dlr wud hold well below 1.0302 (this is 100% projection of 1.0033 to 1.0217 measured fm 1.0118) this week n yield a much-needed correction. On the downside, only below 1.0095 wud indicate a temp. top is made, yield stronger correction twd 1.0033.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are buying dlr on dips n only below Mon's low at 1.0118 wud indicate a temporary top has been made n yield stronger retracement twd 1.0095 b4 prospect of recovery later.
AceTraderFx Jan 15: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Jan 2015 00:53 GMT
USD/JPY ...... The dlr continued its o/n gain in Asia on lower-than-expected Japan's core machinery orders and rebound in the Nikkei.
Reuters reported Japan's core machinery orders rose less than expected in Nov due to declining orders in the manufacturing sector, suggesting companies are still cautious about capital expenditure due to worries about domestic demand.
Compared with a year earlier, core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming 6 to 9 months, tumbled 14.6%. The median estimate was for a 5.8% annual decline.
The Cabinet Office lowered its assessment of machinery orders, saying the recovery is showing signs of stalling. If business investment remains weak, more economists could start to question Abe's argument that his policies are leading to a revival of Japan's hollowed-out manufacturing sector.
The 1.3% rise in core orders, which exclude those of ships and electric power utilities, compared with a 5.0% rise forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. It followed a 6.4% decline in Oct.
Reuters reported BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thur the economy is recovering moderately as a trend with the pain from a sales tax hike in Apr subsiding.
"The BOJ will maintain its quantitative n qualitative easing for as long as needed to achieve and stably maintain 2% inflation," Kuroda said in a speech at a quarterly meeting of the bank's regional branch managers.
The BOJ has kept monetary policy steady since expanding its massive stimulus programme in Oct last year, a move aimed at preventing weak demand n slumping oil prices fm delaying an end to deflation.
"Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend; BOJ's QQE programme exerting its intended effects on economy; BOJ will maintain QQE for as long as necessary to stably achieve 2% inflation; BOJ will adjust policy as needed, looking at upside, downside risks to economy, prices."
Thursday will see the release of Japan's Corp Goods Price and Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia's Employment, Unemployment, Participation Rate, Germany's GDP, euro zone trade balance, U.S.'s initial jobless claims PPI, NY Fed Manufacturing, Philly Fed Business Index.
AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 15 Jan 2015 01:17GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.5214
55 HR EMA
1.5187
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
61
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with mild upside bias
Resistance
1.5397 - 61.8% r of 1.5621-1.5034
1.5320 - Last Mon's high
1.5270 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5195 - Mon's high (AUS)
1.5145 - Y'day's low in Asia
1.5077 - Tue's low
. GBP/USD - 1.5239... Cable moved in a choppy fashion on Wed as despite cross-inspired rally fm Asian low at 1.5145 to 1.5225 in European morning, price retreated sharply to 1.5150 b4 climbing to a fresh 1-week high of 1.5270 in NY morning on broad-based weakness in greenback n then retreated to 1.5202.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, cable's rallied abv Mon's high of 1.5195 to 1.5270 y'day signals erratic rise fm last Thur's 17-month low at 1.5034 to retrace recent decline remains in progress n upside bias is seen for stronger gain twds 1.5328/37, being the 'natural' 50% r of intermediate fall of
1.5621-1.5034 n 1.618 times extension of 1.5034-1.5195 measured fm 1.5077, after consolidation, however, 1.5397 (61.8% r of 1.5621-1.5034) shud hold n yield another fall later. Looking ahead, below 1.5034 wud signal MT downtrend fm 2014 peak at 1.7192 to correct the LT rise fm 1.3500 (2009 low in Jan) has resumed n price is en route to 1.5000 n then 1.4910, this is the 61.8% r of aforesaid rise.
. In view of abv analysis, trading fm long side is recommended today n only below 1.5145 (y'day's low) wud indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead n risk weakness twd 1.5077 but 1.5034 shud hold on 1st testing.
AceTraderFx Jan 16: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Jan 2015 02:19GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Although the greenback staged a brief bounce in Asian morning after yesterday's cross-inspired sell off to an intra-day low at 115.90 in Australia, renewed selling at 116.57 capped dlr's upside n the pair ratcheted lower after comments from Japan ECOMIN Amari.
Stops below 115.90 are now in focus, however, some bids are located at 115.70-60 with mixture of bids and stops seen at option barrier at 115.50.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 116.40-50 n more at 116.80.
Nikkei-225 index currently tumbled by 466 points to 16643. Market players should pay close attention to the Japanese stock markets as USD/JPY may rebounded on short-covering if Japanese shares recover some losses.
In other news, the People's Bank of China gave a 20 billion yuan ($3.2 billion) re-loan loan quota to banks to support agriculture and 30 billion yuan to boost smaller companies, according to a statement on its website. The move aims at lowering financing costs, it said.
Fridaywill see the release of Germany's CPI and HICP, France Budget Balance, Switzerland Retail Sales, euro zone inflation reports, U.S. CPI, Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization, manufacturing output, University of Michigan Sentiment, Net Long-Term Flows.
AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 16 Jan 2015 00:03GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.1667
55 HR EMA
1.1724
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
39
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.1846 - Wed's high
1.1774 - Hourly chart
1.1667 - Prev. hourly chart sup, now res
Support
1.1569 - Y'day's fresh 11-year low
1.1534 - 1.618 times extn of 1.2887-1.2247 fm 1.2570
1.1500 - Psychological sup
. EUR/USD - 1.1636... Despite euro's brief bounce to 1.1786 in Asia after intra-day retreat fm 1.1793 (AUS) to 1.1760, price nose-dived to a fresh 11-year low at 1.1574 in Europe due to free fall in eur/chf after SNB abandoned franc peg. Later, euro rebounded to 1.1774 but only to fall to 1.1569 in NY.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's firm breach n close below Wed's low at 1.1728 (now res) signals LT downtrend fm 1.6040 (2008 record high) to retrace the entire uptrend fm 0.8228 record low made in 2000 has once again resumed n downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.1534 n then 1.1500, being 1.618 times extension of intermediate fall of 1.2887-1.2247 measured fm 1.2570 n psychological lvl respectively, after consolidation. Looking ahead, price is en route twd 1.1212 in Q1, being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of this move.
. Today, as price is currently trading below both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting selling euro on recovery for one more decline is recommended, however, as 'bullish convergences' wud display on hourly oscillators on next fall, reckon 1.1500 wud hold n yield minor correction early next week. Abv 1.1774 wud be 1st signal a temporary low is in place n risks retracement twd 1.1830/40.
AceTraderFx Jan 19: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Jan 2015 01:56GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Despite initial bounce to 117.66 in Tokyo morning due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index, selling interest below last Friday's NY high at 117.76 capped dlr's upside and renewed risk aversion due to the plunge in China stock markets (down over 7%) prompted investors to buy Japanese yen.
The greenback fell to an intra-day low of 116.96 in Asian morning before recovering.
Offers are now tipped at 117.30-40 and more at 117.50-60.
On the downside, some stops are reported below 116.90, however, bids are located at 116.80-70.
The Bank of Japan will meet over the coming two days, with all 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecasting no change to monetary policy after it boosted an already unprecedented bond-buying program in October.
Data to be released this week:
U.K. Rightmove House Price Index, Japan's Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization, Consumer Confidence, Switzerland's Producer/Import Price, euro zone's Current Account on Monday. U.S. Holiday for Martin L. King's Birthday.
New Zealand's NZIER Business Confidence, China's GDP, Retail sales, Industrial Output, Germany's Producer Prices, ZEW Current Conditions, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Italy's Trade Balance, euro zone's ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.K. CBI Trends, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Market Index on Tuesday.
New Zealand's CPI, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence, Japan's BoJ rate decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Leading Economic Index, BoE MPC vote outcome, Average Earnings, ILO unemployment rate, Claimant Count Unemployment Change, Canada's Wholesale Trade, BoC's rate decision, U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday.
New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI, Australia's HIA New Home Sales, Italy's Industrial Orders, Industrial sales, Retail Sales, U.K.'s PSNB, PSNCR, CBI Trends (Orders), ECB's rate decision, U.S. Monthly Home Price, Markit Manufaturing PMI, euro zone's Consumer Confidence on Thursday.
Japan's Manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI for France, Germany and euro zone, Italy's Trade Balance, U.K.'s Retail Sales, Canada's Retail sales, CPI, U.S.'s Existing Home Sales and Leading Index Change on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jan 19: Daily Outlook on Major- EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK (EUR/USD)
Update Time: 19 Jan 2015 02:31 GMT
The single currency tumbled to a fresh 11-year low at 1.1460 on Friday on speculation that ECB's president Mario Draghi will announce a 550 billion-euro ($635 billion) bond-purchase program this week.
However, short-covering in New York lifted the pair to 1.1589, suggesting further choppy consolidation would be seen.
On the upside, as long as 1.1648 resistance remains intact, bearishness remains for a retreat to 1.1500/10 but said temporary low at 1.1460 should hold from here.
Looking ahead, a breach of 1.1460 would extend weakness to 1.1400 and later 1.1350/57 before prospect of a much-needed correction later.
AceTraderFx Jan 19: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 19 Jan 2015 00:39GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8666
55 HR EMA
0.9001
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
41
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
0.9392 - 70.7% r of 1.0240-0.7360
0.9131 - Last Thur's NY high
0.8609 - Last Fri's high
Support
0.8326 - Hourly chart
0.8000 - Psychological sup
0.7360 - Last Thur's 40-month low (Reuters)
. USD/CHF- 0.8587 ... Dlr went thru its most volatile week since the pair was floated in 1971. Despite rising to a 4-year high of 1.0240 Wed, price staged a free fall to a 40-month low of 0.7360 Thur on SNB's surprise decision to abandon the 1.20 franc peg. Short-covering lifted the pair 0.9131 b4 retreating.
. Looking at bigger picture, dlr's said reversal fm 1.0240 peak to as low as 0.7360 (Reuters) has completely distorted the usefulness of technical analysis as Thur's move literally ended dlr's LT upmove fm the near 4-year long uptrend fm 2011 record low of 0.7072 (Aug) to 1.0240. Based on our experience, the spike bottom at 0.7360 formation means a major low has been made but market will, because of 'psychological' reasoning, want to re-test this lvl. So market sentiment will be selling dlr on recovery in the coming days ahead n when price closes abv the psychological 1.0000 mark, selling may subside. Therefore, selling dlr on recovery is favoured but profit shud be taken on decline as price is likely to 'gyrate' inside 0.8000-0.9131 range this week.
. Today, price is likely to trade inside 0.8452-0.8809 as near term move wud be influenced by intra-day swings in eur/chf cross.
AceTraderFx Jan 20: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jan 2015 01:09GMT
EUR/USD - ....... Euro fell ahead of Asian open on Tuesday following a short-covering rally to 1.1639 in thin N. American session, some cited for the intra-day weakness on euro-bearish news.
Reuters reported Greece's anti-bailout opposition party Syriza appears to be gaining momentum with less than a week before Sunday's snap election, moving further ahead of the co-ruling conservatives in 3 separate opinion polls.
Syriza, which wants to renegotiate a chunk of Greek debt and end austerity measures, saw its poll lead grow to 6.5 points on Monday, according to a survey for the University of Macedonia conducted for Greece's SKAI Television, up from a 4.5 point lead shown by the same pollster last week.
Syriza would garner 33.5% of the vote, up from 31.5%, while PMr Antonis Samaras' New Democracy party, which has pushed through unpopular reforms as part of an international bailout, stood unchanged on 27%.
A Syriza victory could trigger a stand off with Greece's EU and IMF lenders and unleash a new financial crisis.
A 2nd survey on Monday, carried out by Alco for the newspaper Proto Thema, put Syriza on 33.1% with the conservatives on 28.5%, a 4.6 point lead for Syriza compared with a difference of 3.5 points in a poll by the same firm last week.
A 3rd survey by GPO for television station Mega also showed Syriza pulling ahead, this time from a lead of 3.2 points in a survey conducted nearly 2 weeks ago to 4 points, with the anti-bailout party on 30.4% compared to 26.4% for New Democracy.
All 3 pollsters indicated that centrist party Potami (River) could play the role of kingmaker if voters deliver a hung parliament, with the political movement created by a journalist-turned-politician coming in third place, although jointly with the far-right Golden Dawn party in one survey.
Tuesdaywill see the release of New Zealand's NZIER Business Confidence, China's GDP, Retail sales, Industrial Output, Germany's Producer Prices, ZEW Current Conditions, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Italy's Trade Balance, euro zone's ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Market Index.