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AceTraderFx Jul 2: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11920
02 Jul 2014 04:12GMT
Dlr's intra-day stronger-than-expected rebound
to 11930 confirms 1st leg of correction from Friday's
4-1/2 month top at 12105 has ended at 11770 yesterday.
As long as 11980 (61.8% r) holds, another fall is
likely 'later', below 11835 would yield 11790/00.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 11930/11975/12005
SUP : 11835/11790/11770
AceTraderFx Jul 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
GBP/USD- .. Sterling's stellar performance in 2014 is backed up by positive fundamentals as U.K. growth is the strongest in the G7 countries n recent upbeat eco. data adds to market speculation of a first hike in Britain's interest rate sooner rather than later.
The Telegraph reported on Tuesday U.K. manufacturing sector expanded for a 16th consecutive month amid swollen order books n increased production. Strong demand for orders both at home and abroad also meant manufacturers took on staff at their quickest pace since March 2011.
Survey compilers Markit's senior economist Rob Dobson said "UK manufacturing continued to flourish in Jun, rounding off one of the best quarters for the sector over the past two decades." He added "With levels of production surging higher, and order books swollen by a further upswing in demand from both domestic and overseas clients, job creation accelerated to its highest for over 3 years."
The pound eases in Asia in tandem with intra-day retreat in eur/usd after yesterday's rally to a fresh 5-1/2 year peak of 1.7167. The pound jumped from 1.7102 to 1.7136 after U.K. mfg PMI beat estimate n climbed to 57.5 vs forecast of 56.8, st specs were reported buying cable on the data, price later rose to session high of 1.7167 near NY midday b4 pulling back on profit-taking.
Looks like the usual range trading in Asia would continue b4 sterling's recent strong ascent resumes as the trend is your trend. Initial bids are noted at 1.7140-30 n more below with stops reported below yesterday's low at 1.7096.
On the upside, a mixture of selling interest n stops is touted at 1.7465/70. Pay attention to U.K. construction PMI, forecast for Jun is 59.5 vs previous reading of 60.0, although this is the least of the important 3 PMIs, if actual is higher than street estimate, this will give sterling bulls another reason to take the pound higher.
AceTraderFx Jul 3: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views AUD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
03 Jul 2014 01:00GMT
AUD/USD.. The latest prepared statements from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens which has knocked AUD sharply lower to intra-day low of 0.9393 after he said Australia rebalancing act to take time, A$ overvalued, quote :-
1. rebalancing signs encouraging but some way to go yet;
2. monetary policy very accommodative, but still has ammunition on rates;
3. A$ overvalued by most measures, and by more than a few cents;
4. investors under-estimating risk of sharp fall in a$ at some point;
5. not seeking to actively "jawbone" the currency lower;
6. has not contemplated tightening, stability language has worked on market expectations;
7. could drop reference to stable rates long before giving any thought to tightening;
8. federal budget unlikely to change near term economic outlook;
longer term tightening of fiscal policy seems sensible;
9. longer term tightening of fiscal policy seems sensible;
10. questions whether budget impact on household confidence will persist;
11. Q1 GDP probably overstated pace of growth, outlook little below trend;
12. housing market appears to be calming down, slower price growth favoured;
13. conditions in housing market do not warrant higher rates.
Yesterday, the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine agreed in talks in Berlin on Wednesday to work towards resuming a ceasefire which would be made possible by starting three-ways talks including pro-Russian separatists by this weekend.
German foreign minister Steinmeier said, quote: 'talks with Ukraine, Russia and France produced measures that will point way to multilateral ceasefire; welcomes Russian readiness to allow Ukraine officers access to checkpoints on border.'
Ukraine foreign minister Klimkin said, quote: 'talks agreed to work towards resumption of trilateral contact group talks; de-escalation will happen when ukraine president's peace plan is respected in its totality'
Russian foreign minister Lavrov said, quote: 'hopes for meeting of contact group on Ukraine in next few days; Russian side will be ready during any new ceasefire to let OSCE monitor certain border crossings; Russia will work for release of hostages in Ukraine; expects a ceasefire to be put in place in Ukraine.'
French foreign minister Fabius said, quote: 'talks on Ukraine "can report mission accomplished".'
AceTraderFx Jul 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jul 2014 08:30GMT
GBP/USD- .. U.K. services PMI for June came in at 57.7, below street forecast of 58.3 (previous reading was 58.6), cable slipped after the data to 1.7134 after tripping light stops below 1.7140.
Current weakness suggests a long-overdue correction of recent strong uptrend has taken place, stops below 1.7130 are now in focus, however, as mentioned in previous, fairly large stops are reported below 1.7095, so until the latter stop lvl is tripped, do not get overly bearish on the pound. For now, offers have been lowered to 1.7150/60 n more above with stops above yesterday's fresh 5-1/2 year peak at 1.7180.
Breaking news from Reuters earlier, Bank of England's Deputy Gov Sir Jon Cunliffe says biggest risk to the UK economy is house prices rising faster than income; we don't forecast or set out when interest rates will next change, we make decision on basis of information coming in; we have said we are looking at the amount of spare capacity when deciding on monetary tightening; when interest rates start to go up, the pace is going to be gentler than in past and it will be to a lower level.
Jon Cunliffe will deliver a speech at the International Festival for Business conference at 11:00GMT, Liverpool today.
AceTraderFx Jul 4: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
04 Jul 2014 02:13GMT
EUR/USD- ... Despite yesterday's brief bounce to 1.3664 at European open, renewed selling interest there knocked price lower n euro nose-dived to an intra-day low at 1.3596 after dovish comments from ECB's president Draghi who said that take-up of the TLTRO could reach EUR 1 trillion. Selling interest is now tipped at 1.3620-25 n more at 1.3635-40. On the downside, mixture of bids n stops is located at 1.3600 but some bids are noted at 1.3580-75.
ECB's Draghi announced that starting January 2015, the ECB will reduce the frequency of its policy meetings to every 6 weeks, allowing for the publication of minutes a few weeks later. He added that studies on ABS have intensified but stressed the need for unanimity among council members about the possible use of non-standard measures.
On the data front, Germany will release its industrial orders at 06:00GMT.
Yesterday, ECB's Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said, quote: 'only way to move from current low interest rates is to reinvigorate euro zone's productive potential; govts should not view period of low rates as an invitation to abandon fiscal prudence; states should stick to rules of new EU fiscal framework, not stretch these to point where framework is discredited; confident euro zone banks with strong business models will make full use of TLTROS.'
Quoting the statement from ECB's policymaker Jens Weidmann :'ultra-loose monetary policy leads, over time, to financial stability risks; concerned that low rates are easing pressure on govts to reform, consolidate budgets; important to stress that ECB will not delay a normalisation of monetary policy out of regard for state finances; for the euro zone, monetary policy has made its contribution to deliver price stability; will take a while for June policy measures to take full effect; I regard it as wrong to speculate about further measures immediately after June decisions.'
Data to be released on Friday:
Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices. U.S. independence day holiday.
AceTraderFx Jul 4: Daily Market Outlook on EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3603
Update Time: 04 Jul 2014 00:34 GMT
Euro's intra-day sell off to 1.3596 in New York morning after release of robust U.S. jobs report confirms recent erratic rise from June's near 4-month trough at 1.3503 has made a top earlier at 1.3700 on Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.3577, however, anticipated near term oversold condition is expected to keep price above 1.3537/42 and bring subsequent rebound.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3643 (Wed's low, now res) would dampen present bearish scenario on the euro and risk stronger gain toward 1.3664 but 1.3700 should remain intact and yield further 'choppy' trading.
AceTraderFx Jun 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jul 2014 07:33GMT
USD/JPY- ... Japan's giant public pension fund (GPIF) enjoyed another strong financial year as domestic stocks rose, but its performance was marred by a pullback in the January-March quarter - just as the fund was cautiously beginning to seek better returns on its equity investments.
The $1.24 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund, the world's largest, generated an 8.6 percent return in the year through March, its third-best ever, helped by a weaker yen and a 47 percent jump in Japanese equities, the fund reported on Friday.
GPIF posted a loss of 0.8 percent, however, in the final three months, its first loss in seven quarters, as the Nikkei stock average slipped 9 percent.
Japan had appointed Hosomizo as new chief financial regulators.
Earlier today, the greenback rallied to as high as 102.27 y'day due to the release of much stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data which came in at 288,000 versus economists' forecast of 213,000. The U.S. unemployment rate also fell to 6.1% in June from previous reading of 6.3% in May, however, profit-taking in Asian morning capped dlr's upside somewhat. Offers are now tipped at 102.20/25 n more at 102.30 with stops building up abv 102.35 res. On the downside, bids are located at 102.10-00 n more at 101.90-80.
Nikkei-225 index currently rose by 97 points to 15445 following the rally in U.S. stock markets (Dow Jones index rose by 92 points to a record close at 17068. Trading is likely to be thin today as there is no major economic data coming out due to U.S. Independence Day Holiday.
AceTraderFx Jul 4: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Jul 2014 23:31GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
102.09
55 HR EMA
101.88
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
72
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 upmove resumes
Resistance
103.02 - May 02 high
102.80 - Jun 4 high
102.35 - Jun 18 high
Support
101.96 - Thur's European morning high
101.65 - Wed's high, now sup
101.41 - Wed's low
. USD/JPY - 102.21... Dlr strengthened after finding support at 101.76 in Aust. on Thur n price edged higher to 101.94 in Asia, then 101.96 in European morning. Later, release of upbeat U.S. payrolls data triggered broad-based buying in greenback n the pair surged to 102.27 in NY morning b4 easing.
. Looking at the daily picture, y'day's rally abv Wed's 101.84 high to 102.27 signals Jun's 3-legged decline 102.80 has ended at Mon's 5-week trough at 101.24 n as price is currently trading abv both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting bias to dlr remains to the upside, abv daily res at 102.35 (Jun 9 high) anytime wud confirm this view n bring re-test of 103.02 (May high), abv wud encourage for further headway to 103.23 (100% proj. of 100.81-102.80 measured fm 101.24) next week. Therefore, position players shud buy dlr on dips for this move.
. In view of abv analysis, trading dlr fm long side for gain twd 103.02 is recommended. On the downside, only below 101.41 (Wed's low) wud dampen current mildly bullish scenario n risk one more fall twd 101.00 but present 'horizontal' movement in the daily 13-day & 55-day emas suggests the near 6-month long side-ways range of 100.76-104.13 is set to continue, key sup 100.76 shud hold.
AceTraderFx Jul 7: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
07 Jul 2014 00:37GMT
EUR/USD - .. Euro breaks Fri's low at 1.3586 in Asian morning. Price opened around 1.3600 in NZ n continued to edge lower, traders cited st specs sold the euro on dovish comments from ECB members Chritian Noyer & Benoit Coeure in a financial forum in Aix-En-Provence, France. Some stops below 1.3585 were stopped but trading volume is likely to be thin in Asia following last Fri's market holiday in the U.S.
07 Jul 2014 00:26GMT
USD/JPY -.. Quoting comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who is speaking at the quarterly meeting of BoJ branch managers :
"Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend."
"Japan's CPI likely to move around 1-1.5% for some time."
"Japan's financial system maintaining stability as a whole."
"Japan's QE has been exerting intended effects."
"Japan will continue with QE for as long as needed to achieve its 2% inflation target in stable manner."
"BoJ will examine upside, downside risks to economy, prices, n adjust policy as necessary."
Data to be released next week:
Japan leading index, Switzerland unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, euro zone Sentix index, Canada building permits, Ivey PMI on Monday.
U.K. BRC shop price, Japan current accounts, economy watcher, Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, China CPI, PPI, GDP, retail sales, Germany trade balance, exports imports, France trade balance, Switzerland CPI, retail sales, U.K. industrial output, manufacturing output, U.S. redbook on Tuesday.
Australia consumer sentiment, Canada house starts on Wednesday.
New Zealand PMI, U.K. RICS housing survey, Japan machinery orders, Australia employment, unemployment, China exports, imports, trade balance, Japan consume confidence, France CPI, industrial output, Italy industrial output, U.K. trade balance, BoE rate decision, Canada new house price index, U.S. wholesale inventories, wholesale sales on Thursday.
Australia housing finance, invest housing finance, Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, Canada unemployment rate, employment change, U.S. Federal budget on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jul 8: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
08 Jul 2014 01:59GMT
EUR/USD - .. Euro moves narrowly but with a firm bias in subdued Asian trading after Mon's rebound from European near 2-week low of 1.3676.
Short-term specs sold the single currency at European open on stop hunting and although price briefly penetrated Friday's 1.3586 low, good buying interest emerged at 1.3676 and euro staged a rebound to 1.3602, such move prompted broad-based short-covering in euro vs USD & GBP, the pair later rose marginally to session high of 1.3609 in NY afternoon, the 1.3610 at Asian open.
Although consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, reports of fairly good offers at 1.3615/25 should cap intra-day gain, so day traders can sell the euro on marginal rise for re-test of 1.3676 later in the day.
Initial bids are noted at 1.3600 and more at 1.3590-85 with stops below 1.3675, however, traders reported a layer of bids at 1.3665-50, so downside on the euro also looks pretty limited today.
Germany & France will release trade data at 06:00GMT & 06:45GMT but these are not expected to move the euro much.
White House said Obama, Hollande decide U.S., Europe should take further coordinated measures to impose costs on Russia if it does not take immediate steps towards de-escalation in Ukraine.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan current account, economic watchers, Australia NAB business confidence, business conditions, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France trade balance, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output and U.S. redbook retail sales.