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AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 25 Jun 2014 00:16GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.6991
55 HR EMA
1.7004
Trend Hourly Chart
Nr term down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
38
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.7091 - 61.8% proj. of 1.6738-1.7011 fm 1.6922
1.7064 - Last Thur's fresh 5-1/2 year peak
1.7034 - Y'day's high
Support
1.6966 - Y'day's low
1.6920 - Last Wed's low
1.6878 - 50% r of 1.6693-1.7064
. GBP/USD- 1.6980... Despite cable's sideways move after retreating fm Australian high of 1.7034 to 1.7017 in Asia, price tumbled to 1.6973 in European morning after dovish remarks fm BoE Governor Mark Carney. Later, cable fell further to 1.6966 in NY session due to upbeat U.S. economic data b4 recovering.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although cable's brief breach of
key res at 1.7044 (2009 Aug's reaction high fm Jan's 24-year trough at 1.3500) last week to a 5-1/2 year peak at 1.7064 on Thur confirms the near 5-year long broad sideways consolidation has ended n aforesaid rise to correct LT downtrend fm 2.1162 (2007 multi-decade peak) is expected to head to 1.7136 in early July, y'day's breach of Mon's low at 1.7002 suggest a long-awaited correction has occured n consolidation with downside bias is seen for a retracement twd 1.6920 (last week's low). Having said that, as hourly oscillators wud display minor bullish convergences on such a move, reckon 1.6878, this is the 'natural' 50% r of 1.6993-1.7064, wud hold n yield strg rebound later this week.
. Today, selling cable on recovery for weakness to 1.6920 is recommended. Only abv 1.7064 aborts this mildly bearish scenario n extends gain twd 1.7095.
AceTraderFx Jun 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
26 Jun 2014 01:49GMT
USD/JPY - ... The greenback tumbled to 101.64 on Wednesday due to dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP n durable goods data, however, short-covering lifted price briefly to 101.87 in late NY.
Offers are now tipped at 101.90-00 and more at 102.10-20.
On the downside, sizeable stops at 101.60 are in focus but some demand is located at 101.45/40 and more at 101.20-10.
Nikkei-225 index rose by 48 points to 15315, following the rise in U.S. stock markets. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday that deflation has ended and will be thwarted by new government policies designed to encourage business expansion.
Last night statement from the U.S. White House said, quote:
'Obama is mindful of not putting in U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage when mulling further sanctions against Russia over Ukraine; sanctions regime against Russia will be most effective if implemented with allies in Europe who are among Russia's strongest trading partners.'
'Obama called Italy's PM to discuss Ukraine on Wednesday.'
Data to be released on Thursday:
France business climate, U.K. BoE financial stability report, U.S. jobless claims, personal consumption, personal income, core PCE, PCE index.
AceTraderFx June 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Jun 2014 09:31GMT
GBP/USD - Cable briefly rose to intra-day high of 1.7030 after the BoE Financial Stability Report were released.
Statement from BoE Financial Stability Report, quote:
1. " to set from october loan to income ratio at 4.5 for 85 pct of new mortgages".
2. "new cap would apply to lenders who grant more than 100 mln stg of home loans a year".
3. "home loans granted from today but completed from october will count towards total volume for setting planned cap".
4. "toughens affordability tests for new home loans from thursday by taking into account potentially higher interest rates".
5. "most lenders already operate within the lti cap".
6. "does not believe that household indebtedness poses an immediate threat to stability, measures aimed to insure against this risk".
7. "eight top uk lenders must maintain core equity ratio of 7 pct, leverage
ratio of 3 pct".
8. "sets first formal countercyclical capital buffer for banks at 0 pct".
Earlier, BoE's Carney begins his news conference n says, quote:
'the biggest risk to the UK economy relate to the housing mkt;
it is not the FPCI's role to control house prices;
the FPC is concerned that a marked loosening in underwriting standards n increase in household debt cud pose major risk;
today's measures shud not constrain current housing activity, actions will bite if sustained momentum in housing mkt;
these measures will prevent slide into riskier lending, higher indebtedness; monetary policy does not need to be diverted to address a sector-specific risk in the housing mkt;
today's actions don't affect the central outlook for the economy;
today's actions are less likely to have implications for monetary policy path, which anticipates limited n gradual rate rises;
we expect the momentum in the housking mkt to continue for the next year or so;
this is the limit of our tolerance on the housing mkt, if we need to recalibrate, we will.'
AceTraderFx Jun 26: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Jun 2014 00:09GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
101.85
55 HR EMA
101.89
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
45
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
102.80 - Jun 04 high
102.65 - Jun 09 high
102.35 - Last Wed's high
Support
101.61 - Jun 12 low
101.43 - May 29 low
101.10 - May 19 low
. USD/JPY - 101.82... Dlr remained under pressure in Asia n Europe on Wed n briefly weakened to session low of 101.64 in NY morning as sharply lower final U.S. GDP triggered broad-based selling in greenback. Later, cross-selling in yen lifted the buck n price recovered to 101.87 in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, y'day's break of 101.74 to 101.64 suggests a 'downside break' of early 2-week long broad range of 101.61-102.35 has possibly taken place n re-test of said lower level wud be forthcoming soon, below wud confirm erratic decline fm Jun's top at 102.80 (Jun 04) has resumed n further weakness to daily chart obj. at 101.43 n then 101.10 (May 29 n May 19 low respectively) shud follow. However, as the hourly oscillators' readings wud display prominent 'bullish convergences' on such move, price wud hold abv May's bottom at 100.81 (May 21) n yield rebound later.
. In view of abv analysis, selling the greenback again on recovery is still cautiously favoured but profit shud be taken on subsequent decline. On the up-side, only a daily close above 102.35 would shift risk to the upside for stronger gain to 102.65 but aforesaid res at 102.80 shud continue to hold.
AceTraderFx Jun 27: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Jun 2014 00:30GMT
USD/JPY - Statement from the Japan govt. official announced that : May household spending fall n impact of sales tax hike are within expectations, as spending other than auto, housing in uptrend.
While Japanese household spending fell much more than expected in May, data showed on Friday, in a sign that consumer spending is struggling after an increase in the national sales tax.
The 8.0% annual decrease exceeded the median market forecast for a 2.0 percent annual decline.
The govt. raised the national sales tax to 8% fm 5% on Apr 1st to pay for rising welfare costs.
Yesterday Fed's Bullard in his statement said, qoute:
'prefers to end bond buying in October; sees GDP growth bouncing back in 2nd qtr, on track for 3.5 pct to 4 pct growth; own forecast of q1 2015 rate hike is data-dependent; wage increases will follow increase in inflation.'
' if jobless rate falls faster than expected, Fed may be behind curve; confident that fed will do the right thing; "way ahead of schedule" on decline in unemployment rate; view that inflation will rise above 2 pct in 2015; U.S. no longer in 1 pct-2 pct low-inflation environment; inflation will tick higher; U.S. is still a long way from a turn in monetary policy; economy could tolerate the process of fed going back to normal.'
'as credit markets heal, harder to justify continued low rates; Fed's bond-buying has not made U.S. income, wealth inequality worse; higher inflation would hurt the poor the most; Fed's bond-buying has boosted stocks, which have recently returned to more standard valuations; largely agree that low real yields will help repair damage from crisis more quickly.'
Data to be release on Friday:
New Zealand trade balance, exports, imports, Japan household spending, CPI core Tokyo, CPI core nationwide, unemployment rate, Germany import price index, CPI, HICP, France consumer spending, GDP, producer prices, Switzerland KOF indicator, Italy business confidence, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, GDP, euro zone business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, service sentiment, Canada producer prices, U.S. University of Michigan sentiment (Final).
AceTraderFx Jun 27: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK- 1.2485
27 Jun 2014 03:49GMT
Despite usd's 1-week long sideways move after
falling to a 5-week low at 1.2467 last Thursday, as long
as 1.2517 (Wed), recent decline should resume later.
Trade from short side for weakness toward Apr's 4-mth
trough at 1.2451 n only above 1.2517 risks 1.2540/43.
STRATEGY : Short at 1.2500
POSITION : Short at 1.2500
OBJECTIVE : 1.2455
STOP-LOSS : 1.2520
RES : 1.2517/1.2543/1.2568
SUP : 1.2467/1.2451/1.2424
AceTraderFx Jun 30: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
30 Jun 2014 02:35GMT
EUR/USD - ... The single currency maintained a firm undertone after rising to 1.3650 on Friday n bids are now located at 1.3640-30 n more at 1.3620-10 with stops only seen below 1.3600. On the upside, some stops are tipped abv 1.3650 n 1.3655.
Bloomberg news reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, in a telephone call lasting more than two hours, told Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine chief Petro Poroshenko to start peace talks and reminded them of a looming deadline for Kremlin action.
In other news, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said in its annual report released earlier that loose monetary policy makes it easy for euro-area banks to keep bad debt on their books, potentially delaying the flushing out of sour loans.
Last Friday, statement from France's Hollande said, qoute:
'will hold phone talks with Germany's Merkel, Ukraine's Poroshenko, Russia's Putin on Sunday; EU will take more measures if no progress on Ukraine by Sunday.'
Also, statement from German Chancellor Angela Merkel qoute:
'progress made on Ukraine peace process is not satisfactory; if no progress made on any of the points of Ukraine peace plan then we are prepared to take severe measures.'
Data to be release next week:
Japan industrial output, construction orders, housing starts, Germany retail sales, Italy producer prices, consumer prices preliminary, CPI, U.K. mortgage approvals, mortgage lending, euro zone inflation, Canada GDP, U.S. Chicago PMI, pending home sales on Monday.
Japan Tankan, China NBS manufacturing PMI, HSCB manufacturing PMI, Japan manufacturing PMI, Australia RBA rate decision, Switzerland PMI, Italy Markit/ADACI manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, unemployment change, euro zone Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending on Tuesday.
Australia exports, imports, trade balance, U,K. Nationwide house price, Markit/CIPS construction PMI, euro zone producer prices, U.S. ADP employment, durable goods revised, factory orders, Canada manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.
China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, HSBC service PMI, Australia building approvals, retails sales, France Markit/ABACI service PMI, Fracne Markit service PMI, Germany Markit service PMI, euro zone Markit service PMI, retails sales, ECB rate decision, U.K. Markit/CIPS service PMI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, jobless claims, average earnings, trade balance, Markit service PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMIon Thursday.
Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices, U.S. markets closed for July 4 Independence Day holiday on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jun 30: Daily Market Outlook USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 101.32
Update Time: 30 Jun 2014 05:58 GMT
The greenback remained under pressure after penetrating 101.61 support last week, suggesting the erratic decline from June's high at 102.80 has resumed and further weakness to 101.00/10 is envisaged, however, previous key daily support area at 100.76/81 should hold on 1st testing and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only a rise above 102.00 would prolong choppy consolidation and may risk gain to 102.35 resistance again.
AceTraderFx Jun 30: Weeky Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 Jun 2014 23:19GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
101.44
55 HR EMA
101.56
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
46
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Initial weakness b4 rebound
Resistance
102.20 - Jun 20 high
101.87 - Last Thur's high (Aust.)
101.61 - Jun 12 low (now res)
Support
101.32 - Last Fri's low
101.10 - May 19 low
100.76 - Feb 02 low
. USD/JPY - 101.43... Despite moving sideways initially last week, dlr came under selling pressure at 102.17 Tue n fell on renewed cross-buying of yen, the pair penetrated previous daily sup at 101.61 on Thur n weakened to a 1-month low of 101.32 Fri due to broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion.
. Looking at the daily picture, dlr's breach of 101.61 sup signals Jun's 3-
legged decline fm 102.80 has resumed n weakness to 101.16 shud follow, being 100% proj. of 102.80-101.61 measured fm 102.35, current 'horizontal' movement in the daily 13-day & 55-day emas suggests the near 5-month long sideways range of 100.76-104.13 is set to continue this week n although initial weakness is seen, as long as key sup at 100.76 (reaction low fm Jan's 5-year peak) holds, prospect of another strg rebound still remains, a daily close abv 101.61 wud signal afore said fall fm 102.80 has ended n yield subsequent bounce back twd 102.35. On the downside, below 100.76 wud risk stronger correction to 99.60 (50% r of MT intermediate rise fm 93.75-105.45).
. Today, we're selling dlr on recovery for one more fall or buy on intra-
day decline in anticipation of a rebound but 101.82/87 shud cap upside.
AceTraderFx Jul 2: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
02 Jul 2014 02:15GMT
USD/JPY - ... The greenback ratcheted higher to 101.65 due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index, which rose by 89 points to 15416, following the rally in U.S. stock markets. Bids are now located at 101.50-40 and more at 101.30 with stops only seen below 101.20.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 101.80-85 and more at 102.00.
BOJ reported that firms forecast inflation of 1.5 percent in a year, unchanged from three months ago.
Japanese companies see prices rising 1.6 percent from a year earlier in three years, and gaining 1.7 percent in five years. Japanese companies forecast sustained price gains, providing support for the Bank of Japan's campaign to generate stable inflation.
Investors are focusing on the speech at 14:00GMT by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen after saying last month U.S. interest rates will stay low for a 'considerable time.'
Data to be release of Wednesday:
Australia exports, imports, trade balance, U,K. Nationwide house price, Markit/CIPS construction PMI, euro zone GDP, producer prices, U.S. ADP employment, durable goods revised, factory orders, Canada manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.