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AceTraderFx Jan 8: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1064.7
08 Jan 2014 05:42GMT
Intra-day's retreat fm 1070.3 suggests choppy
conolidation wud be seen, further weakness to 1062/
63 cannot be ruled out but 1060.7 shud hold.
On the upside, only abv 1071.0 wud signal up-
move fm 1048.3 has resumed, 1074.2. Stand aside.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1071.0/1074.2/1079.0
SUP : 1060.7/1057.1/1054.9
AceTraderFx Jan 9: U.S. dollar rises versus euro after Fed minutes
Market Review - 08/01/2014 21:32GMT
U.S. dollar rises versus euro after Fed minutes
The greenback rose against the single currency on Wednesday after the release of minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, which showed the U.S. central bank was on track to wind down its bond purchases at a steady pace.
The Fed minutes laid out the central bank's rationale for cutting purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to $75 billion a month from $85 billion starting this month. The minutes showed showed many members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee wanted to proceed with caution in trimming the asset purchases, and most wanted to stress that further reductions were not on a preset course.
Some of the 10 voting policymakers "expressed concern about the potential for an unintended tightening of financial conditions if a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was misinterpreted as signaling that the committee was likely to withdraw policy accommodation more quickly than had been anticipated."
During the day, the single currency retreated against the dollar after meeting renewed selling at 1.3635 in Asia in part due to cross-selling vs yen and sterling and dropped to 1.3581 in European morning despite the release of upbeat euro zone retail sales in November. Later, the pair fell further to 1.3568 in New York morning after release of better-than-expected U.S. ADP employment change in December but lack of follow through selling prompted short-covering and price rebounded to 1.3618 before falling to a fresh 1-month low at 1.3554 near New York close.
ADP non-farm payrolls rose by 238,000 in December, exceeded expectations for an increase of 200,000. November's figure was revised up to a gain of 229,000 from a previously reported increase of 215,000.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar rose in Asia due to the rally in Nikkei 225 index and extended gain from Australian low at 104.60 to 105.13 in European morning, falling Nikkei futures in Europe pressured price to 104.67. Dollar later staged a brief rebound to 105.01 in early New York morning after upbeat U.S. ADP employment change and rose marginally higher to 105.05 after the release of FOMC minutes before retreating.
Cable edged higher after meeting cross-related buying interest at 1.6377 in Asia and price later rose to 1.6434 ahead of New York open, despite a brief selloff to 1.6400 after U.S. ADP employment change, active selling in eur/gbp cross continued to support the cable and price later rose to 1.6472 in New York morning before easing.
On the data front, eurozone unemployment rate in the region came in unchanged at 12.1% in November. A separate report showed euro zone retail sales rose 1.4% in November, the biggest rise since November 2001, recovering from a 0.4% fall in October.
Thursday will see the release of Australia retail sales, building approvals, France trade balance, U.K. trade balance, industrial production, BOE rate decision, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, ECB rate decision, Canada housing starts, building permit, new housing price index and U.S. jobless claims data.
AceTraderFx Jan 9: Daily Outlook on Crosses - GBP/JPY
DAILY GBP/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 172.65
09 Jan 2014 07:17GMT
Wed's strg rebound suggests fall fm last Thur's
5-year peak at 174.85 has made a low at 170.42 on
Mon n abv 172.84 may bring stronger gain to 173.50.
Below 171.83 wud signal recovery fm 170.42 has
made a top n may bring fall to 171.06 n 170.84.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 172.84/173.16/173.50
SUP : 171.83/171.06/170.84
AceTraderFx Jan 10: Euro falls to a fresh 1-month low after ECB's Draghi comments
Market Review - 09/01/2014 21:24GMT
Euro falls to a fresh 1-month low after ECB's Draghi comments
The single currency turned lower to a fresh 1-month low against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reinforced the bank's forward guidance on rates and said the bank was still ready to take 'further decisive action' if needed. The ECB kept interest rate unchanged at 0.25% in January.
During the day, although euro rebounded after finding support at 1.3567 at Asian open and then ratcheted higher to 1.3634 in New York morning, price came under pressure as Draghi reiterated that 'monetary policy will remain accommodative for as long as is needed in order to assist the economic recovery in the euro area' during the press conference and euro penetrated Wednesday's low of 1.3554 to a fresh 1-month low at 1.3548, however, lack-of-follow through selling prompted short-covering and price later recovered above 1.3600 near NY close.
Against the Japanese yen, dollar's intra-day moves on Thursday were mainly driven by cross-trading of yen and price traded in a choppy fashion below Wednesday's high of 105.13. The pair rebounded from Asian low at 104.75 to 105.06 in European morning before falling to 104.77 and then to session low at 104.57 in New York morning.
Cable edged higher from Asian low at 1.6441 to 1.6480 in European morning and then further to 1.6497 in New York morning after Bank of England announced no change to monetary policy following its first meeting of the year, however, euro's intra-day selloff pressured price here and the pair later dropped to 1.6452 and then traded in a choppy fashion for the rest of the New York session.
The Bank of England left rates on hold at 0.5% and announced no change to the size of its GBP 375 billion asset purchase program, as was widely expected. No statement after monetary policy decision.
On the data front, U.S. Labor Department said Thursday the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance last week fell by 15,000 to 330,000 from the previous week's revised total of 345,000. A separate report earlier showed U.K. trade deficit narrowed to GBP 9.44 billion from a downwardly revised deficit of GBP 9.65 billion in October.
In other news, BOJ's Shirai said 'it is possible to aim for 2%inflation at slower pace than 2 yr time frame if burden on households and companies become excessive; currently there is a lot of uncertainty around the time frame for the BOJ's 2% inflation target; would not hesitate to ease further if big downside risks economy, prices emerge; disinflationary trend is somewhat of a concern in euro area but rather limit in U.S.'
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George told the Wisconsin Bankers Association that 'the Federal Reserve's efforts to provide markets with so-called "forward guidance" on its interest rate policy could result in the Fed keeping interest rates too low for too long, to the detriment of the economy'.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan leading indicators, U.K. RBC retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, Canada unemployment rate, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earning, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 10: Daily Market Outlook on Crosses GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 172.70
09 Jan 201423:30GMT
Despite stg's strg rebound to 173.10, subsequent
retreat suggests the recovery fm Mon's 170.42 low
has made a top there n pullback to 171.83 is seen.
Sell on pullback with stop as indicated, break
wud risk stronger gain to 173.78/80 b4 down.
STRATEGY : Sell at 173.00
OBJECTIVE : 172.00
STOP-LOSS : 173.50
RES : 173.10/173.50/173.78
SUP : 171.83/171.06/170.84
AceTraderFx Jan 10: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 12195
10 Jan 2014 02:14GMT
Dlr's retreat after failure to re-test 12275 top
suggests choppy trading wud continue n retracement
to 12165 can't be ruled out but 12140 shud hold.
On the upside, only abv 12255 indicates pullback
is over, 12275 again later. Stand aside for now.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 12255/12275/12300
SUP : 12190/12165/12140
AceTraderFx Jan 13: Dollar tumbles broadly after disappointing U.S. jobs report
Market Review - 10/01/2014 21:06GMT
Dollar tumbles broadly after disappointing U.S. jobs report
Dollar weakened broadly on Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy added far less jobs than expected last month, although tapering of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program still lent some support.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar continued to edge higher from Thursday's New York low at 104.57 in Asia and Europe and then rose briefly to 105.40 ahead of the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data in New York morning, price tumbled sharply to 104.19 as data came in surprisingly weaker-than-expected and price later fell further below Monday's low at 103.91 to 103.83 before recovering due to short-covering ahead of the weekend.
U.S. official data showed that the U.S. non-farm payroll added 74,000 jobs in December, compared to expectations for a 196,000 increase, after an upwardly revised 241,000 rise the previous month. A separate report showed that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.7% in December, from 7.0% in November.
The single currency rebounded to 1.3620 ahead of European opening on Friday but came in under pressure on active selling on eur/jpy cross, price fell to 1.3565 in New York morning and then rallied to 1.3687 on dollar's broad-based weakness after the disappointing U.S. jobs report before easing.
Cable traded in a relatively narrow range of 1.6472-1.6483 in Asia and then tumbled to 1.6403 in European morning as data showed that U.K. manufacturing production was flat in November, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% rise, after a downwardly revised 0.2% uptick the previous month. The pair later dropped further to 1.6381 in New York morning before rallying to 1.6518 on dollar's broad-based weakness on weak U.S. non-farm payroll data.
On the data front, official data showed that industrial production in France climbed 1.3% in November, exceeding expectations for a 0.4% rise, after a downwardly revised 0.5% decline the previous month
In the other news, Fed's Lacker said 'latest employment report showed dramatic fall in jobless rate, made substantial progress on unemployment; market expectations that interest rates will remain low may be bigger driver of market liquidity, equity prices than bond buys; healthcare act could have substantial economic impact, small business looking for how best to handle; Fed will be watching healthcare closely in next few years; wise not to cover-react to one month's employment report as a general principle; takes a couple of quarters to show a sustainable change in economic trends; would expect FOMC to discuss a similar reduction in bond buying pace at next meeting as the $10 billion agreed in Dec; markets have a good appreciation of FOMC's intentions, changes in forward curve more reflective of growth expectations.'
Data to be released next week :
Australia Home loans, Italy industrial production, U.K Lloyds employment confidence on Monday.
Japan current account balance, Economic watch DI, France current account, CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, HICP, U.K. PPI, CPI, RPI, ONS house price, EU industrial production, U.S. retail sales, import price index, export price index, Redbook retail sales, business inventories on Tuesday.
Japan machine tools orders, Germany GDP, Swiss retail sales, EU trade balance, US empire state mfg, PPI, Fed releases Beige Book report, Canada existing home sales on Wednesday.
Japan Tertiary industry index, machinery orders, domestic CGPI, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, U.K. RICS house prices, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy trade balance, EU CPI, U.S. CPI, Jobless claims, Net LT TIC flows, Philadelphia Fed survey, NAHB housing mrkt index on Thursday.
Japan consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, U.S. housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jan 13: Weekly Out look on Crosses GBP/JPY
WEEKLY GBP/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 170.48
13 Jan 2014 02:10GMT
Stg's retreat fm last Thur's 173.10 high signals
recovery fm 170.42 has ended there n fall fm Dec's
5-yr peak at 174.85 shud resume twd 169.75 later.
Trade fm short side n only abv said 173.10 wud
defer n risk stronger gain twd 173.94.
STRATEGY : Short at 173.00
POSITION : Short at 173.00
OBJECTIVE : 170.00
STOP-LOSS : 171.50
RES : 173.10/173.94/174.85
SUP : 170.42/169.75/168.46
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Yen gains broadly on risk aversion
Market Review - 13/01/2014 21:48GMT
Yen gains broadly on risk aversion
The dollar dropped below the 103 level to a three-week low of 102.85 against the yen on Monday, driven lower by expectations that Friday’s surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report for December will prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain loose monetary policy for longer and U.S. treasury yields will cotninue to fall.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar fell after meeting renewed selling at 104.14 in Australia and tanked below last Friday's low of 103.83 to 103.26 in Asia. Later, despite a recovery to 103.57 in European trading, active cross-buying of yen pressured the dollar again in New York morning and price dropped further to a fresh 3-week low of 102.97 before stabilizing.
The single currency ratcheted lower after failure to penetrate last Friday's high of 1.3688 in Asia and price retreated from 1.3685 to 1.3638 ahead of New York open before recovering. Price later climbed back to 1.3661 in New York morning in part due to active buying in eur/gbp cross and then traded sideways for rest of the session. Euro's losses versus dollar were limited amid that Fed will adopt a more cautious approach to scaling back its stimulus program, after cutting it by USD 10 billion in December.
The British pound tumbled versus the dollar on Monday, despite a recovery to 1.6508 in Asia, active cross-selling of sterling versus yen and euro pressured price sharply lower to 1.6422 in European morning. Cable later climbed back to 1.6466 but another round of selling sent price further lower to 1.6347 in New York morning before stabilizing.
On the data front, Italian industrial output rose for a third consecutive moth in November, up 0.3% from a month earlier.
In other news, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told reporters that "The Federal Reserve should clarify its future plans for raising interest rates now that U.S. unemployment has dropped to 6.7 percent, close to the central bank's stated threshold of 6.5 percent for considering tighter policy."
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan current account balance, Economic watch DI, France current account, CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, HICP, U.K. PPI, CPI, RPI, ONS house price, EU industrial production, U.S. retail sales, import price index, export price index, Redbook retail sales and business inventories.
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Outlook on Minor AUD/USD
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK
14 Jan 2014 00:26 GMT
Y'day's rally abv 0.9005 (Jan 03 high) to 0.9087
signals corrective rise fm Dec's 3-1/2 year low at
0.8820 to retrace MT downtrend has resumed n fur-
ther gain to 0.9118 is seen, however, o/bot condi-
tion shud cap price well below daily res at 0.9169.
Buy on dips for this move n only firm breach of
0.9005 suggests top possibly made, risks 0.8953/65.
Rate
0.9037
Strategy/Entry Level
Buy at 0.9015
Objective
0.9100
Stop-Loss
0.8980
Resistance/Support
R: 0.9087/0.9118/0.9169
S: 0.9005/0.8953/0.8912