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GBP/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.5925
Last Update At 04 Aug 2010 04:36 GMT
Cable has edged lower in tandem with euro after
initial rebound to 1.5965 in Asia, suggesting fur-
ther sideways trading below y'day's high at 1.5968
wud continue until European opening, reckon renewed
buying may emerge abv 1.5889 (reaction low).
Buy on further weakness for rebound to 1.5955 or
sell if price rises to 1.5960 for 1.5910.
Range Forecast
1.5905 / 1.5945
Resistance/Support
R: 1.5968/1.5990/1.6039
S: 1.5889/1.5862/1.5803
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-5-8-2010
Market Review - 04/08/2010 22:58 GMT
Dollar rebounds from a fresh eight-month low against yen on upbeat U.S. economic data
The greenback rebounded strongly from an 8-month low against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, as upbeat U.S. data prompted investors to unwind short positions in dollar.
Although the greenback fell below Tuesday's low of 85.67 against the Japanese yen in Asia to a fresh 8-month low of 85.32 on risk aversions after triggering stops at 85.50 and the pair traded narrowly in Europe, dollar rebounded strongly at NY opening after the release of better-than-expected U.S. employment and services data, which prompted investors to unwind short positions in the greenback, and the pair later hit an intra-day high of 86.39 before trading narrowly in NY afternoon.
U.S. ADP employment data in July came in at 42,000 versus the expectations of 40,000 and 13,000 in June. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI in July came in at 54.3 versus the expectations of 53.0 and 53.8 in previous month.
In addition, Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said current moves in yen are somewhat one-sided, apparently steeping up the administration's verbal warnings against yen's rise.
The single currency edged lower from Asian high of 1.3240 on profit-taking together with active cross selling in euro especially versus the Japanese yen (eur/jpy tumbled from the previous session's high of 114.14 to as low as 112.70) following Tuesday's rally to a 3-month high of 1.3262 and fell to 1.3183 after the release of weaker-than-expected German and EU services data. Later, although euro rebounded to 1.3233 ahead of NY opening after EU retail sales data, the single currency tumbled to an intra-day low of 1.3131 due to upbeat U.S. employment and services data before recovering.
German services PMI fell to 56.5 in July versus economists' forecast of 57.3. EU services PMI in July also came in lower-than-expected at 55.8 against the expectations of 56.0. EU retail sales in July came in at 0.0% m/m and 0.4% y/y, versus the economists' forecast of 0.1% m/m and 0.1% y/y respectively.
The British pound edged lower from Tuesday's near 6-month high of 1.5968 on profit-taking in Asia and then hit a low of 1.5892 after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.K. services PMI which fell to 53.1 versus the economists' forecast of 54.4. Later, although cable managed to rebound to 1.5961 in NY opening, sterling fell again in tandem with euro and dropped to an intra-day low of 1.5857 in NY before stabilising.
Economic data to be released on Thursday include: New Zealand Unemployment rate, Unemployment change, Germany Factory orders, U.K. BOE rate decision, BOE Asset Purchase Target, BoE Monetary Policy Decision, EU ECB rate decision , ECB's Press Conference, U.S. Jobless claims, Canada Building permits.
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.3160
Late Update At 05 Aug 2010 06:17 GMT
Despite nr term sideways trading after y'day's
strg retreat to 1.3131, as long as 1.3183 (previous
sup, now res) holds, downside bias remains for ano-
ther corrective fall fm this week's high of 1.3262
to said sup, below wud extend to 1.3110 later.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv
wud risk stronger gain to 1.3200/02 b4 down.
Range Forecast
1.3140 / 1.3170
Resistance/Support
R: 1.3183/1.3212/1.3240
S: 1.3131/1.3107/1.3057
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Support, Resistance and Range Forecast by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 06 Aug 2010 06:04 GMT
Range Forecast
85.90 / 86.20
Resistance/Support
R: 86.22/ 86.46 / 86.89
S: 85.67/ 85.56 / 85.32
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 06 Aug 2010 06:37 GMT
Range Forecast
1.3170 / 1.3210
Resistance/Support
R: 1.3236/1.3262/1.3293
S: 1.3135/1.3119/1.3107
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 06 Aug 2010 06:12 GMT
Range Forecast
1.0460 / 1.0490
Resistance/Support
R: 1.0502/1.0519/1.0555
S: 1.0455/1.0434/1.0413
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 06 Aug 2010 06:34 GMT
Range Forecast
1.5900 / 1.5930
Resistance/Support
R: 1.5925/1.5940/1.5968
S: 1.5857/1.5820/1.5803
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader-9-8-2010
Market Review - 06/08/2010 21:55 GMT
Dollar falls broadly against most currencies on disappointing U.S. jobs data
Dollar tumbled against most of its counterparts on Friday as release of weak U.S. non-farm payrolls data added speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to take more stimulus measures at its next meeting on Tuesday to prevent the U.S. economy from going into a double-dip recession.
Although the greenback edged higher against the Japanese yen in Asia after Thursday's weakness to 85.71, renewed selling at 86.19 in European morning capped intra-day rise. The pair then tanked to a fresh 8-month low of 85.02 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls and later staged a minor recovery in NY afternoon.
U.S. non-farm payrolls in July fell 131k, more than market forecast of minus 65k. The drop in payrolls showed the rise in private-sector employment was not enough to make up for the government jobs lost, however, the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 9.5%. U.S. 2-year Treasury note yield dropped below 0.5% for the first time ever, suggesting market is getting more pessimistic on U.S. economy. Market is speculating the Fed may consider taking steps (quantitative easing) to support the fragile U.S. economy at next Tuesday's FOMC meeting.
Earlier in Tokyo morning, the head of one of Japan's business lobbies said that 'the government should not intervene in the forex market despite a firmer yen, which weighs heavily on Japanese exporters' profitability.'
Although the single currency traded sideways in Asia on Friday and retreated from 1.3204 to an intra-day low of 1.3157 after the release of weaker-than-expected German industrial production data which fell by 0.6% in June versus the economists' forecast of 0.7% rise, the pair swiftly rallied above Tuesday's high of 1.3262 after the release of weak U.S.jobs data. The single currency eventually hit a fresh 3-month high of 1.3334 and then retreated on profit-taking.
The British pound also traded narrowly in tandem with euro in Asia and ratcheted higher to 1.5920 in European morning, sterling fell sharply to an intra-day low of 1.5840 after the release of disappointing U.K. economic data. However, cable then rallied after release of U.S. non-farm payrolls and hit a fresh 6-month high of 1.5999 in NY morning after triggering stops above 1.5925 and then 1.5968, sterling later retreated on profit-taking and weekend long liquidation.
U.K. industrial production came in at -0.5% m/m and 1.3% y/y (forecasts were 0.2% m/m and 2.0% y/y) whilst U.K. manufacturing production rose by 0.3% m/m and 4.1% y/y, against the economists' expectations of 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y.
U.S. and European equities fell on Friday due to weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls. DJI once dropped by more than 150 points but later pared most of its intra-day losses and closed the day down by 21 points, or 0.2% at 10,654. FTSE-100, CAC-40 and DAX fell by 0.62%, 1.28% and 1.17% respectively.
In other news which came out in European morning, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it withdrew its 'AAA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term issuer credit rating on Swiss National Bank, dollar swiss briefly rebounded to 1.0509 on this news but later fell to a near 8-month low of 1.0332 in New York morning after the U.S. jobs report.
Earlier in Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia released its Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and said it stuck to its forecasts for domestic growth to accelerate to 4% over the next two years, driven by a boom in trade and mining investment, but still expected underlying inflation to stay within its target. However, RBA gave little guidance on the outlook on interest rates and said only that it thought the current setting of monetary policy was appropriate at this stage.
Economic data to be released next week include:
U.K. RICS house prices, Japan Trade balance (jpy), Current account, Economic watch DI, Germany Trade balance , Current account Jun, Export, Import on Monday, Australia NAB business confidence, Japan BOJ rate decision, Machine tools orders, Germany WPI, CPI final, Germany HICP final, U.K. BRC retail sales, Trade balance (gbp), DCLG house prices, Canada Housing starts, New housing price index, U.S. Labour cost, Productivity, Wholesale inventories, Fed rate decision on Tuesday, Japan Domestic CGPI, Machine orders, Australia W'pac consumer confi., U.K. N'wide Consumer Confi., Claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, BoE's Quarterly Inflation, U.S. Trade balance (usd), Fed budget, Canada Trade balance (cad), Imports, Exports on Wednesday, Australia Employment change , Unemployment rate, Japan Capacity utilisation, Industrial prod'n, Consumer confidence, EU ECB Monthly Report, Industrial prod'n, U.S. Jobless claims, Export price index, Import price index on Thursday, Germany GDP, Swiss Combined PPI , EU GDP, U.S. CPI, CPI core M/M, Real earnings, Retail sales, Retail sales less auto, U.S. U. Michigan survey Prel., Business inventories on Friday.
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.3297
Late Update At 09 Aug 2010 06:20 GMT
Nr term sideways trading is likely to continue
n as long as 1.3262/66 holds, a rebound is still
likely, however, breach of 1.3334 is needed to con-
firm recent upmove has once again resumed n extend
marginally to 1.3350 b4 correction.
Buy on dips for this move with stop as indicat
ed, break wud risk stronger pullback to 1.3210/15.
Range Forecast
1.3280 / 1.3310
Resistance/Support
R: 1.3300/1.3334/1.3379
S: 1.3262/1.3236/1.3157
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.3157
Late Update At 10 Aug 2010 06:04 GMT
Euro's intra-day selloff to 1.3135 confirms
recent upmove has indeed made a top earlier at
1.3334 last Friday n consolidation with downside
bias wud be seen for weakness twd 1.3119 sup, below
wud extend decline fm 1.3334 to 1.3080/90 later.
Sell recovery for this move n only abv 1.3216
wud confirm an intra-day low is made.
Range Forecast
1.3125 / 1.3165
Resistance/Support
R: 1.3216/1.3236/1.3266
S: 1.3135/1.3119/1.3057
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.3056
Late Update At 11 Aug 2010 06:21 GMT
As euro has fallen after meeting renewed sell-
ing interest at 1.3128, suggesting downside bias
remains for decline fm last week's high of 1.3334
to retrace recent upmove to resume n yield re-test
of y'day's low of 1.3074, below extends to 1.3057.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, break
prolongs choppy trading inside 1.3074-1.3228 range.
Range Forecast
1.3030 / 1.3080
Resistance/Support
R: 1.3128/1.3161/1.3186
S: 1.3057/1.3000/1.2980
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.2911
Late Update At 12 Aug 2010 05:52 GMT
As euro has risen just ahead of European open-
ing after extending y'day's selloff to 1.2830 in
Australia, a firm breach of 1.2914 wud bring stron-
ger retracement of this week's decline to 1.2940/44
b4 prospect of a retreat later.
Exit prev. short as only a firm break of 1.2870
signals intra-day high is made n yields 1.2845/50.
Range Forecast
1.2885 / 1.2825
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2914/1.2948/1.3031
S: 1.2870/1.2830/1.2794
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EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.2874
Late Update At 13 Aug 2010 05:50 GMT
Euro has risen again after a brief pullback fm
Asian morning high at 1.2868 to 1.2852, suggesting
nr term rise fm y'day's low at 1.2780 wud now head
to 1.2900, however, as this move is seen as retrace
ment of early fall fm 1.3334, res 1.2933 shud hold.
Raise long entry for this move with stop as indi
cated n only below 1.2821 confirms recovery over.
Range Forecast
1.2860 / 1.2890
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2900/1.2933/1.2954
S: 1.2852/1.2821/1.2780
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