Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - page 77

 

Multiplying by four is recommended when you can do it. If you are looking at cycles on weekly charts, you might not have enough data so you might have to get by with two swings. One full cycle is not enough on its own to know if it might persist into the future. If your window is too small you might find yourself trying to measure a trend in which case the analysis will fail. Zoom out over longer periods and it is easier to see the relationship between long trends and even longer cycles. The EURUSD monthly chart is a good example of this.

regards,

Alex

 
hughesfleming:
With the Goerzel Browser, we can start to examine the cycles with more depth. What is immediately apparent is the 414 day cycle with an amplitude 2.5x the second cycle. In this case, the venus cycle is clearly defined. When we see such a strong cycle within the time series, we need to make a decision. The Goerzel Browser will make a composite of the cycles and their amplitudes to generate a projection line. In cases like this where one cycle is so clearly dominant, it may be better to focus on the sub harmonics of the dominant cycle instead. With this in mind we can add spectrometr to the chart with an iperiod of 414. I prefer to use no more than 5 cycles within spectrometr and even few cycles when the value of iperiod is smaller. With regard to the other cycles, the second cycle shifts between 290 period and 310 periods and I have touched on this cycle in previous posts. The 3rd and 4th cycles are close relatives of the 40 week Hurst cycle. When the periods are similar and there is little difference in the amplitudes you can go ahead and average the periods.

Here is an update to the post above showing the 414 Day cycle using spectrometr. Click on the attachment above, and you can see how the last cycle low was correctly estimated. I have added the moving average lines taking the values right off Goerzel which are the zero points of the cycle. The averages are 414,294,191 and 96. I dropped 212 because it was too close to 191 with a lower amplitude. I have a 75 day cycle in the first picture which was calculated outside of metatrader so I did not include it this time.

No explanation needed about why we are going sideways in EURUSD.

Files:
 

Greetings one and all

My forecast agrees with Alex's in the long term. The current retracement is expected to last a couple more days (Mon and Tues potentially) then a mid week reversal to the up side before a final descent. Typically i don't trust the future too much but the most immediate turn is usually more accurate.

Not a recommendation to trade, but use at your own risk

Cheers,

Pip

Files:
 

...that's a nice looking indicator Mr. Pip...can I have one?...to go?...

Pip:
Greetings one and all

My forecast agrees with Alex's in the long term. The current retracement is expected to last a couple more days (Mon and Tues potentially) then a mid week reversal to the up side before a final descent. Typically i don't trust the future too much but the most immediate turn is usually more accurate.

Not a recommendation to trade, but use at your own risk

Cheers,

Pip
 
Pava:
...that's a nice looking indicator Mr. Pip...can I have one?...to go?...

Looks similar but not the same one!!

Try this one coded by Mladen from this post : https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/181241/page10

Files:
 
Pava:
...that's a nice looking indicator Mr. Pip...can I have one?...to go?...

Yeahh Mr. Pip, where I can find this indicator? Please share.

 

The next medium term turning point for the EURUSD based on the Delta outlook is a high (MTD-2 red) beginning of june:

Sixer

 
erdenmensch:
Yeahh Mr. Pip, where I can find this indicator? Please share.

That is the indicator from secretcode's link. Just follow the link and you can download it

 
mladen:
That is the indicator from secretcode's link. Just follow the link and you can download it

Thanks, but I mean the version of post #764 with look in the future.

 
erdenmensch:
Thanks, but I mean the version of post #764 with look in the future.

Looks like Fourier extrapolation of some oscillator but for details we shall have to wait Pip