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Hey ES,
I've posted in your "curve" thread over at the other forum under a different handle a long time ago. I remember leaving a lot of hints about the "curve" moving as time went on, but I didn't have the heart to tell you straight up and crush your hopes. But in the end, you quickly realized that it was not tradeable when you saw it move with your own eyes.
Trust me, most of the pikers over there are not making any money. They talk a big game, but most are just talkers. And I see you are seeking a different approach. So this time, I'm not holding back on my advice, and just going to be blunt.
You are 99% right. 99% of EA is gambling. It only works well under certain conditions, trend vs. chop. And all of the EA's are not sophisticated enough to achieve your ratios. It would require a much more complex software language and higher mathematics/statistics understanding that most traders just do not have. That is why a lot of big wall street firms hire quant phDs from top colleges. You just don't find them on the streets or in internet forums. With that said, you are looking for a needle in a haystack if you think you can find a mechanical EA that meets your requirements, and not go through long periods of profitability AND drawdown...which is highly dependent on the time of introduction to the market and what kind of market condition. A lot of EA's will make money for awhile (months) and quickly go into drawdown when the markets changed. I thought you would have figured this out by now. And I would say the forex is harder than the other markets as well because of the global influence, different market times, and quasi volumes at the bucket shops. There are simply way too many variables for a EA to handle. Not saying there are no profitable EA's out there, but it will not be a steady equity curve like you want with your ratios. It may get a spike here and there, and then also dips spanning months.
I applaud your effort. But really think about what you are asking. It doesn't make any sense. And if you want to go with managed accounts, why go with pikers on the internet instead of going with a wall street firm who actually have the inside advantage and auditable track record. Unless you are actually looking for something more. Just think about it.
With EA, I would just hope for a lucky timing and introduce the right EA at the right time, make a lot of money very quickly, and scale down for the inevitable drawdown. So yeah, it is a lot like gambling.
My last bit of advice. Go with what you know. Price. Volume. T&S. Tick/Trin. And in the forex market, you lack many of these edges.
Good luck in 2008.
jb..
I remember you...how could I forget you!
My friend you did me the best service that you could with this post. I think I will print it out...I will read it when I start gambling ...it always will not work...but maybe, maybe it might curtail my activities...
keep in touch...I guess I will just park my money in a 6.01% savings account that I have and retire poor...but better off than gambling...
ES
Hey ES,
I've posted in your "curve" thread over at the other forum under a different handle a long time ago. I remember leaving a lot of hints about the "curve" moving as time went on, but I didn't have the heart to tell you straight up and crush your hopes. But in the end, you quickly realized that it was not tradeable when you saw it move with your own eyes.
Trust me, most of the pikers over there are not making any money. They talk a big game, but most are just talkers. And I see you are seeking a different approach. So this time, I'm not holding back on my advice, and just going to be blunt.
You are 99% right. 99% of EA is gambling. It only works well under certain conditions, trend vs. chop. And all of the EA's are not sophisticated enough to achieve your ratios. It would require a much more complex software language and higher mathematics/statistics understanding that most traders just do not have. That is why a lot of big wall street firms hire quant phDs from top colleges. You just don't find them on the streets or in internet forums. With that said, you are looking for a needle in a haystack if you think you can find a mechanical EA that meets your requirements, and not go through long periods of profitability AND drawdown...which is highly dependent on the time of introduction to the market and what kind of market condition. A lot of EA's will make money for awhile (months) and quickly go into drawdown when the markets changed. I thought you would have figured this out by now. And I would say the forex is harder than the other markets as well because of the global influence, different market times, and quasi volumes at the bucket shops. There are simply way too many variables for a EA to handle. Not saying there are no profitable EA's out there, but it will not be a steady equity curve like you want with your ratios. It may get a spike here and there, and then also dips spanning months.
I applaud your effort. But really think about what you are asking. It doesn't make any sense. And if you want to go with managed accounts, why go with pikers on the internet instead of going with a wall street firm who actually have the inside advantage and auditable track record. Unless you are actually looking for something more. Just think about it.
With EA, I would just hope for a lucky timing and introduce the right EA at the right time, make a lot of money very quickly, and scale down for the inevitable drawdown. So yeah, it is a lot like gambling.
My last bit of advice. Go with what you know. Price. Volume. T&S. Tick/Trin. And in the forex market, you lack many of these edges.
Good luck in 2008.hi ES,
you have a good blog, and i like to read about your performance and experiences with managed accounts. i hear you when you say that you have lost faith in EAs... and i agree that there's not many decently profitable ones out there that can perform consistently (i know you don't believe there are any).
i'm still hopeful in finding a good EA even after 4 months of searching and testing on my blog. i believe our blogs complement each other well. it's been tough finding good EAs, but i think i'm beginning to see some light.
all the best in your quest.... and i applaud you for doing it so faithfully.
- ck
ES,
I don't want to discourage you from your project. Perhaps, demo accounts can be used, and save the stake money until you are comfortable with an approach. But know this, there is no EA that is going to trade equally well in trend and chop. Usually, it's one or the other. There are probably profitable EA's out there, but I'm just saying don't expect them to fit into your ratio requirement all the time.
To attract the interest of coders I need to offer 6 months of profit to them...in exchange for permission to use their EA.
I only have 17% to lose and there are 4 coders who want to try. If they remain anonymous this will not hurt them and I can get their personal EA out of the deal...
If they are successful and survive the challenge, they can still remain anoymous if they wish and I can forward to them interested parties ...But I must remain pure and derive no benefit from that as I have a vision for the Blog...If this is to work...I should sell nothing and only provide neutral unbiased commentary. Not even behind the scenes secret benefits..I must really remain pure and if I were caught in scandelous activity...well the Blog would be over..I have a full disclosure link in the Blog to report any activity.
It's funny I am a writer....I enjoy it so...Maybe I should not trade at all.
ES
P.S. JBFX ..I gotta do this.
ES, I don't want to discourage you from your project. Perhaps, demo accounts can be used, and save the stake money until you are comfortable with an approach. But know this, there is no EA that is going to trade equally well in trend and chop. Usually, it's one or the other. There are probably profitable EA's out there, but I'm just saying don't expect them to fit into your ratio requirement all the time.
Good luck ES, it'll be interesting. Are the contestants going to say they are trading using an EA or just descretionary trading? I would think a descretionary manual trading would be more dynamic (hopefully good).
I'm going to mozy back over to the other pasture. I don't think I can compete in the forex game unless I can get more data.
Yes ElectricSavant,
Your blog is very informative, and i follow it since the start
CHHUUTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
I have not really thought about it...I will wait for the offer to present itself...I suppose discretionary trading would not need an EA...so it would be a managed account. To show consistency might be very important... is all that comes to mind..
ES
Good luck ES, it'll be interesting. Are the contestants going to say they are trading using an EA or just descretionary trading? I would think a descretionary manual trading would be more dynamic (hopefully good). I'm going to mozy back over to the other pasture. I don't think I can compete in the forex game unless I can get more data.
ES,
Let me tell you something. Everyone here is a gambler, so don't feel bad. I'm a gambler too. I'll share with you some of my gambling ways. Some go out quick in a blaze of glory, others slowly bleed their accounts dry. I've always been tempted to write a journal in the lines of "Kenny Rogers Trading Institute" or "Stops are for Suckers". Because that is what I do believe. Call me crazy, I know. In my past forex trading life, I followed the trend, stops are just places where I should reverse. I would deposit the minimum required into the broker's account and enroll in their monthly trading contest. It was really funny watching the number of winners dwindle to almost nothing as the month rolled on because everyone was a big loss away from blowing out. I took on huge risks relative to the account size, and lived on the edge LOL. Always gunning to be in the top 3 for the prize money was the real rush. Gambling at its finest. Although I can proudly say I won more prize money than trading the $500 account. Oh, good times.
Yeah JB...I cannot add much without sounding foolish...You just about covered it.
ES
ES, Let me tell you something. Everyone here is a gambler, so don't feel bad. I'm a gambler too. I'll share with you some of my gambling ways. Some go out quick in a blaze of glory, others slowly bleed their accounts dry. I've always been tempted to write a journal in the lines of "Kenny Rogers Trading Institute" or "Stops are for Suckers". Because that is what I do believe. Call me crazy, I know. In my past forex trading life, I followed the trend, stops are just places where I should reverse. I would deposit the minimum required into the broker's account and enroll in their monthly trading contest. It was really funny watching the number of winners dwindle to almost nothing as the month rolled on because everyone was a big loss away from blowing out. I took on huge risks relative to the account size, and lived on the edge LOL. Always gunning to be in the top 3 for the prize money was the real rush. Gambling at its finest. Although I can proudly say I won more prize money than trading the $500 account. Oh, good times.