My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 14
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EUR/USD chat
The FOMC minutes were a disappointment for the USD yesterday - and Obama's stimulus package is unraveling as the US goverment may continue buying MBS securities in an effort to stave off the crumbling of an empire. But hey, at least he's $1M dollars richer after winning the Nobel. Maybe Obama will make an anonymous donation to Fox news.
The Euro rally toward 1.50 versus the Dollar continued as Industrial Production gained for the 4th consecutive month. Industrial Production came out at 0.9% as expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4838 and with a high of 1.4946. Today, ECB Monthly Bulletin will be released and will provide detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions. European Core CPI is expected slightly weaker with 1.2% versus 1.3% prior.
Resistance
1.499
1.501
Support
1.486
1.48
1.476
USD Bernanke and XAU - tigers and lions and bears, oh my!
We experienced a little bounce in the USD and if Bernanke doesn't shock us, we may be pippin' later on today when the NY session is is full gear. As much as I like charting/technical analysis - I'm never opposed to making a buck, jappy, cable, etc. off of these policy wonks and their diatribes. Which way do you think the dollar will go after Bernanke takes the microphone? Your thoughts are much appreciated. Still thinking about shorting XAU too. Made some quick bucks last week doin' it. Anyone else sell for the trade?
The Dollar ended Friday's session mixed, rising versus Euro and the Yen and declining versus the Pound as Industrial Production was higher but Consumer Sentiment was lower. Industrial Production rose by 0.7% better than 0.1% expected, but University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment was surprisingly lower with 69.4 versus 73.6 forecast and 73.5 prior. NASDAQ and Dow Jones declined by -0.76% and -0.67% respectively, as bank stocks declined sharply. Crude advanced by 1.2% closing at 78.65$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) finished almost flat with 0.12% change, closing at 1052.25$ an ounce.
Although the single currency rose marginally to 1.5064 in the beginning of last week, lack of follow through buying and the retreat from there suggest a temporary top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen. A daily close below 1.4674-83 minor support would add credence to this view and further fall towards support at 1.4480 but it is necessary to see a clear break of this level to confirm and bring correction of recent upmove to 1.4232 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2885 to 1.5064) would follow.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD60 Box Size 40X3 or(0.83%) HI/LO
Data 1.5062 - 1.3832 ~ 4 Month ~ 118.04 Day
Database 2001 records 1.47681 (Last Close)
2009-07-07 11~00
2009-11-02 12~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"
1.5040|~4O|||==========================X===|0.15%|8.73%
1.5000|~8O|||__________________________Xo__|0.41%|8.44%
1.4960|~12O||________________________X_Xo__|0.68%|8.16%
1.4920|~16O||________________________XoXo__|0.94%|7.87%
1.4880|~2OO||________________________XoXo__|1.21%|7.58%
1.4840|~24O||____________________X___Xo_oX_|1.47%|7.29%
1.4800|~28O||____________________XoX_X__oXo|1.74%|7%
1.4760|~32O||__________________X_XoXoX__oXo|2.01%|6.71%
1.4720|~36O||==================XoXoXoX==o=o|2.27%|6.42%
1.4680|~4OO||__________________XoXoXo______|2.54%|6.13%
1.4640|~44O||__________________Xo_oX_______|2.8%|5.84%
1.4600|~48O||__________________X__oX_______|3.07%|5.55%
1.4560|~52O||__________________X__oX_______|3.33%|5.26%
1.4520|~56O||==================X==o========|3.6%|4.97%
1.4480|~6OO||__________________X___________|3.86%|4.68%
1.4440|~64O||________X_________X___________|4.13%|4.4%
1.4400|~68O||________Xo____X___X___________|4.4%|4.11%
1.4360|~72O||________Xo__X_Xo__X___________|4.66%|3.82%
1.4320|~76O||________XoX_XoXoX_X___________|4.93%|3.53%
1.4280|~8OO||____X_X_XoXoXoXoXoX___________|5.19%|3.24%
1.4240|~84O||____XoXoXoXoXo_oXoX___________|5.46%|2.95%
1.4200|~88O||====XoXoXoXoX==o=o============|5.72%|2.66%
1.4160|~92O||____XoXoXoXoX_________________|5.99%|2.37%
1.4120|~96O||____Xo_oXo_oX_________________|6.25%|2.08%
1.4080|~1OOO|____X__oX__o__________________|6.52%|1.79%
1.4040|~1O4O|__X_X__o______________________|6.79%|1.5%
1.4000|~1O8O|__XoX_________________________|7.05%|1.21%
1.3960|~112O|_oXoX_________________________|7.32%|0.93%
1.3920|~116O|XoXoX_________________________|7.58%|0.64%
1.3880|~12OO|_oXo__________________________|7.85%|0.35%
1.3840|~124O|_o____________________________|8.11%|0.06%
1.3800|~128O|______________________________|8.38%|-0.23%
Column|~132O|145414461856734533135873735833|
Count|~136O|____O___O_________4___________|
EUR/USD forecast
H4 graph
The pair is trading along an uptrend, but today it made a rather huge leap down which contradicted the tendency of further upside. Drop below level 1.5095 and especially 1.5040 will state the pair’s serious intention to begin the trend’s turn.
In case the pair gets under level 1.5005, it will try to drop below level 1.4955 then. If that happens, the next drop target will be set to level 1.4865 – a key support (the lower bound of “F-F+” weekly uptrend).
I’m not seeing any signals of trend’s continuation so far.
GBP/USD forecast
H4 graph
Having broken the “L-L+” channel the pair went for developing a downtrend. After retreating under level 1.6590 the market has formed a figure of (down)trend’s continuation and headed for testing of level 1.6465 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily sideways trend).
If the pair eventually drops below level 1.6465, it will get to key support 1.6325 (K trendline). Otherwise, if the market goes for correction from the current level, it will find resistance at level 1.6590, from which we should expect repeated testing of 1.6465.
EUR/USD forecast
H4 graph
After rapid upside lately the pair didn’t manage to update level 1.5061, which speaks about a potential of continuation of sideways trend’s forming within the range between levels 1.5050 (support) and 1.4875 (resistance).
Currently the market is closing at a temporary support level 1.4955, but as long as it stays below 1.5050 and above 1.4955 it resides a neutral zone.
Therefore, there are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below level 1.4955, it will head to a key support 1.4875. Next, in the prospects, if the market will manage to get under that support, it will go to an intermediate support 1.4790, and further to 1.4650 (basically, the market tends to go this way).
2. If the pair rises above resistance level 1.5050, it will get to level 1.5125, and probably even to 1.5200.
Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.4955 with the target at 1.4875.
Buy above 1.5050 with the target at 1.5125.
GBP/USD forecast
H4 graph
The pair is trading along a wide sideways trend, but on its way it gradually drops down, confidently and constantly, by breaking support levels on and on. As long as the market stays below resistance 1.6665 and above support 1.6330, it resides a neutral zone.
Let’s examine the variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below a key support 1.6330, it will get to support 1.6110.
2. In case the pair rises above resistance 1.6665, it will get to level 1.6820, and maybe even to 1.6900 (I consider this variant to be less probable then the first one).
Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.6330 with the target at 1.6110.
Buy above 1.6665 with the target at 1.6820.
GOLD forecast
H4 graph
The gold strives to leave an H4 uptrend (black dotted trend). The fact that after a rather strong retracement the market couldn’t rise above a minor resistance 1180 speaks in favor of uptrend’s fading and downtrend development attempts.
So, I see a variant to attempt selling below 1160 with the target at 1128. If the gold rises above 1180, that will be a bullish sign, but the uptrend’s continuation cannot be confirmed until the gold rises above 1195.
A Possible Wave 3 in GBPUSD?
A possible wave 3 at GBPUSD... a sign that GBPUDF are very bullish
Technical analysis on February 8, 2010 USD/CHF
CHF - Swiss Franc
Planned buying positions from key supports were realized with overlap of minimal intended purpose. Trend indicator OsMA, noting the conservation benefits of the activity of bovine parties gives rise to the maintenance of bovine priorities and planning as well today. Therefore, we assume the probability of return rate to the nearest support is 1.0710 / 30, where it is recommended to evaluate the development activities of the parties in accordance with the schedules of smaller time interval. For buying positions on condition of formation of reversal signals targets will be 1.0770 / 90 1.0810 / 20 and (or) further breakdown option to 1.0860 / 80 1.0940 / 60, 1,1000 / 20. Alternative for sales will be below 1.0660 with targets 1.0600 / 20 1.0520 / 40.
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