My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 33
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The US dollar has slipped at the American session after the new Fed chairman Janet Yellen’s speech to the Congress. She stated that the labour market situation was improving, however, this process was far from complete: the likely tapering of QE would continue with a moderate pace; the USD/CHF pair would remain at the same range.
“Bears” on the dollar/franc repeatedly tried to break through the support around 0.8941, but bids of the “bulls” were not allowed the pair mentioned. At the end the pair was bought, that enabled it to climb up to 0.8987. However the pressure on the dollar remains, as well as the chances to fall down to 0.8900. The growth and the ability to hold around 0.9000–0.9020 will indicate the resumption of the upward dynamics.
USD/JPY dips on conflicting U.S. data
The dollar fell against the yen on Friday after data revealed output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities came in weaker than expected last month, though an upbeat consumer sentiment report cushioned the greenback's losses.
In U.S. trading, USD/JPY was down 0.32% and trading at 101.84, up from a session low of 101.58 and off a high of 102.41.
The pair was expected to test support at 100.75, the low from Feb. 4, and resistance at 102.70, Tuesday's high.
The preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index remained unchanged at 81.2 for February, beating expectations for a fall to 80.6.
The numbers boosted the dollar, though soft output data kept the greenback lower against the yen.
The Federal Reserve reported earlier that U.S. industrial production fell 0.3% in January, defying expectations for a 0.3% rise after a 0.3% increase the previous month.
Data also showed that U.S. import prices rose 0.1% last month, confounding expectations for a 0.1% downtick after a 0.2% rise in December.
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The Swiss franc rose amid total dollar sales after a new portion of the U.S. weak statistics.
The pair USD/CHF is consolidating just above 0.8870. The loss may increase to 0.8830. The immediate resistance is at 0.9060 (highs 46 February). The return above 0.9100 will make the growth target 0.9140/50 and 0.9180 (maximum of 20 November).
The pair dollar/franc could not develop a growth above 0.8928. It was sold here, and it fell to 0.8868. The overall picture is negative for growth and ability to consolidate above 0.9100 will be proof of that.
USD/CHF
Frank continues to consolidate after the euro. From a technical point of view, the pair USD/CHF is trading below 0.8900. The immediate support is at 0.8850 (lows of last week). The loss may increase to 0.8820.
The downtrend is slowing down. The pair may remain at the current level 0.8850 for a while still we expect a trend reversal upwards. The first target is 0.8890, the second is 0.8910.
Frank continues to consolidate after the euro. From a technical point of view, the pair USD/CHF is trading below 0.8900. The immediate support is at 0.8850 (lows of last week). The loss may increase to 0.8820.
The downtrend is slowing down. The pair may remain at the current level 0.8850 for a while still we expect a trend reversal upwards. The first target is 0.8890, the second is 0.8910.
USD/JPY Forecast March 3-7
he Japanese yen enjoyed worries about Ukraine and unimpressive US data to slide. A wide variety of indicators is due to impact the yen. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
Japan recorded another win over deflation, with improvements in all inflation figures. However, the road is still long, especially given the upcoming tax hike. US indicators were mixed, with strong durable goods orders and new home sales, while jobless claims rose. This weighed on USD/JPY that struggled with the strong 102.70 line and eventually fell to lower ground. The downwards US GDP revision, even though there were caveats, didn’t help either. Also the events in the Ukraine, which is torn between east and west, triggers safe haven flows towards the Japanese yen.
* All times are GMT.
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USD/JPY Forecast March 10-14
he Japanese yen was significantly sensitive to the events in Ukraine, strengthening at first before weakening afterwards. Eventually we have seen a big upside breakout. Will the pair run to new highs? The rate decision in Japan is the main event in a very busy calendar. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
USD/JPY dropped to low ground on the rising tensions in the Ukraine, but didn’t really break out of the triangle. This all changed as the mood improved, especially as US Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations. The previous range is gone and the pair hit resistance.
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the daily analysis for forex market 14/3/2014
GBPUSD continued its downward movement from 1.6785, and the fall extended to as low as 1.6568. Deeper decline is still possible, and the target would be at 1.6500 area. Resistance is at 1.6665, only break above this level could trigger another rise to re-test 1.6822 resistance.
EURUSD is facing 1.3914 resistance, a break above this level will signal resumption of the uptrend from 1.3477, then next target would be at 1.4000 area. Initial support is at 1.3830, and the key support is located at the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, only a clear break below the trend line support could signal completion of the uptrend.
USD/JPY Forecast March 17-21
The Japanese yen was supported at first by China and then by Ukraine, that made a comeback to the limelight. Trade balance is the big event after a busy week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
Q4 growth was revised to the downside, to 0.2%, as expected. This adds pressure for more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Worries about growth in China served as the safe haven trigger and this was yen positive, allowing consolidation after the recent rise. The rate decision in Japan offered little, but the BOJ may still act in April. Everything is possible. In the US, figures were OK, but not more than that. The Ukraine story could continue dominating the scene for some time.
* All times are GMT.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
Dollar/yen began the week with a slide to the 102.74 line (mentioned last week), practically erasing the jump higher. It then changed course and found support only above the 101.35 line.
Technical lines from top to bottom
The top line is the peak seen in the turn of the year: 105.44. This was challenged several times. Below, 104.80 capped the pair during January.
Below, 103.77 provided support for the pair in January and served as a clear separator of ranges. 102.74 was a stubborn peak during February and is the top line of the current trading range.
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