EUR/USD may be heading for a crossroad as it continues to trade along the ‘F-F+’ trend - General

PICASSO 2010.03.14 21:05 #151

EUR/USD

H4 graph

The pair is trading along the uptrend having the upside target seen at level 1.3800 (level of the 4th wave completion). This level has been reached, leading the pair to some kind of crossroad. There are 2 variants of events to proceed:

1. If the pair continues upside above level 1.3800 (“B+” trendline), the next target will be set to level 1.3970 (2 February high).

2. In case the correction heads down below level 1.3800 and the pair gets under 1.3680, it will continue moving down with the target seen at 1.3555 and then even lower. However, it would be better to consider this (downside) variant a little later, on 16 March, when US basic rates survey will be released.

Daily forecast

The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..

Weekly forecast

The pair is trading along the downtrend, having the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the neckline). The 4th correctional wave is being formed now. It has its top at levels 1.3800 - 1.3970. In case the pair rises above level 1.4000 there is a probability of downtrend’s cancellation. If so, the upside target will be set to level 1.4600. Meanwhile, I expect the market to turn from the levels stated above with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th downwave).

GBP/USD

H4 forecast

The pair is trading along the uptrend, which had the target at level 1.5195. If gbpusd rises above this level, the new target will be seen at level 1.5410 (“X” trendline). Also in such case the “double bottom” figure will be executed.

Otherwise, if the pair fails continuing upside and drops below level 1.5130, we may expect it to get down to level 1.4950 (“a” trendline).

Daily forecast

After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).

Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.

Weekly forecast

(See daily graph)

The pair is trading along the “E-E+” downtrend having the drop target seen at level 1.4355. Level 1.5410/60 (X trendline) is now the level of turn and resuming of the downside - this is variant #1.

Variant #2 is going to happen on a special case, if level 1.5460 (X trendline) won’t manage to keep the pair from the upside and it gets above level 1.6000. Then the “E-E+” downtrend won’t exist anymore and the pair will reach level 1.6950 (F trendline). After that, if the pair gets over 1.7000, it will eventually end up at 1.8530.

Variant #3 is also worth discussing:

If the downtrend is still very strong after getting down to level 1.4355, the pair may drop to 1.3650 (R trendline from monthly graph).

There is also variant #4:

If the pair loses its downside momentum after getting down to level 1.4355 and rises above level 1.5410, the downtrend will fade and the market will go up to level 1.6950. Next, similarly to variant #2, a “double bottom” figure will be formed and the pair will then rise above 1.8530, to level 1.9500.

Elliott Wave Theory - Elliott Wave Theory - Elliott Wave Theory -

PICASSO 2010.03.18 20:06 #152

EUR/USD forecast

H1 graph

The pair is trading along a downtrend. The way down to support 1.3555 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend) became clear after the pair got under level 1.3655. Level 1.3580, stated in the previous forecast, provided some support, however this support is temporary and the pair is unlikely to get above level 1.3625.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. The pair continues downtrend from the current level or from resistance 1.3680, with the drop target seen at level 1.3555.

2. Taking into consideration variant #1, if the pair eventually gets to support 1.3555, it may attempt starting an uptrend from there. In such case, if the pair manages to rise above 1.3615, further upside to resistance level 1.3680 will be very probable.

Moreover, if resistance 1.3680 is unable to keep the pair from rising and it gets over level 1.3715, we may expect reaching of 1.3770 - but this variant is least probable.

If the pair manages to retreat below 1.3510 after getting to level 1.3555, it will clear the way to the drop target at level 1.3450 (several last weeks’ low).

Support:

1.3580 and 1.3555 (key one)

Resistance:

1.3625 and 1.3680 (key one)

GBP/USD forecast

H1 graph

The pair is trading within the sideways trend (striving to transform into downtrend), having rebounded from support 1.5235. The will be staying in a neutral zone while it is located below level 1.5315 and above 1.5210.

There are two variants of events to proceed:

1. It consists of three waves. In case the pair drops below level 1.5210, a potential of drop to level 1.5160 (“a” trendline - the lower bound of H4 uptrend) will emerge. The second stage will begin with rebound from 1.5160. A correction to resistance level 1.5235 may take place right after that, after which the downtrend will be resumed. If then the pair gets down below level 1.5160, it will get to support 1.5070 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend). If during Stage Two level 1.5235 fails keeping the pair from rising and the market gets above level 1.5310, further upside to level 1.5410 will become possible.

2/4. In case the pair rises above level 1.5315 (“z” trendline), it may continue rising to level 1.5410.

Support

1.5235 (intermediate), 1.5160 (strong) and 1.5070 (key)

Resistance

1.5315 (intermediate) and 1.5410 (key)

GOLD forecast

H1 graph

The gold is trading in the sideways trend between levels 1128 (stated in the previous forecast) and 1118. In general, the markets direction is bearish, that is we may expect the gold to rebound from current level with the drop target seen at support 1118. Next, a rebound back to 1123 may happen, after which dropping attempts will go on. And in case the gold drops below level 1118, it will get to support 1112.70 or a little lower to 1109.50.

Rising above 1128 has poor chance, but if it eventually happens, the market still won’t be able to go any higher than resistance cloud around 1131.75 - 1135.

Development of the current picture implies forming of a “double top” trend-turning figure.

Support:

1118, 1112.70 (strong) and 1109.50 (key)

Resistance:

1128 (strong) and 1131 - 1135 (key)

Order types Ichimoku Kinko Hyo - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo -

PICASSO 2010.03.22 06:38 #153

EUR/USD

Forecast for the next week, from March 22 to 26. H4 graph (dated 03/22/10)

The pair is trading along a downtrend. By getting under level 1.3650 the pair gained an opportunity to drop to level 1.3550 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend). At the moment the market is striving to continue the downtrend and eventually get under key level 1.3500.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. In case the pair continues to drop and goes below level 1.3500 (with or without rebound from level 1.3580, which is highly populated with trendlines), the pair will get next drop target at level 1.3285. Resistance 1.3580 is a strong level, and the pair is unlikely to rise above it.

2. Alternative variant. If the pair loses its downside momentum, fails holding ground below 1.3500 and rises above 1.3600, it will get an opportunity to reach resistance level 1.3680. This level is a strong resistance and so we should expect downtrend’s continuation after the pair gets to it. This is due to the fact that we are still in the “F-F+” weekly downtrend, which has the drop target at level 1.2870.

Forecast for the next month, March - April. Daily graph (dated 03/22/10)

By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave. Now the drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. If the downtrend continues and the pair drops below level 1.3500 (out of the “B-B+” trend boundaries), the bearish sentiment will be amplified. In such case the pair will get to level 1.2870.

Level 1.3285 is an intermediate support, which may evolve a correction to resistance 1.3520 followed by rebound and downtrend’s continuation with the drop target seen at 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then goes above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.

Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)

The development of 5-wave downtrend is in progress. By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave and now its drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).

Getting to 1.2870 is probable within the next 20-30 days, after which the market will begin forming a trend-turning/continuing figure. Forming of that figure may take about a month.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. Direct drop to level 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then rises above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600

Elliott Wave Theory - Elliott Wave Theory - Order types

[Deleted] 2010.04.01 05:58 #154

EUR/USD's corrective rise from 1.3266 might still be in progress but we'd continue to anticipate strong resistance at 1.3570 to conclude the correction and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3384 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3266 first. However, note that decisive break of 1.3570 will indicate that the five wave sequence from 1.5143 is completed and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3817 resistance and above.

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO

Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day

Database 2000 records 1.35043 (Last Close)

2002-08-05 00~00

2010-04-01 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris

BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6200|~2OO||______________________________________________|-1.01%|68.63%

1.6000|~4OO||__________________x___x_______________________|0.24%|66.55%

1.5800|~6OO||__________________x_o_x_o_____________________|1.48%|64.46%

1.5600|~8OO||__________________x_o_x_o_____________________|2.73%|62.38%

1.5400|~1OOO|__________________x_o___o_____________________|3.98%|60.3%

1.5200|~12OO|__________________x_____o_____________________|5.23%|58.22%

1.5000|~14OO|__________________x_____o_________________x___|6.47%|56.14%

1.4800|~16OO|__________________x_____o_x_______________x_o_|7.72%|54.05%

1.4600|~18OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_______x_o_|8.97%|51.97%

1.4400|~2OOO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|10.21%|49.89%

1.4200|~22OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.46%|47.81%

1.4000|~24OO|__________________x_____o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.71%|45.73%

1.3800|~26OO|__________________x_________o_____x_o_____x_o_|13.95%|43.65%

1.3600|~28OO|__________x_______x_________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|15.2%|41.56%

1.3400|~3OOO|__________x_o_x___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|16.45%|39.48%

1.3200|~32OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x___|17.7%|37.4%

1.3000|~34OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|18.94%|35.32%

1.2800|~36OO|______x___x_o___o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|20.19%|33.24%

1.2600|~38OO|______x_o_x_____o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_________|21.44%|31.15%

1.2400|~4OOO|______x_o_x_____o_x_________o___o_____________|22.68%|29.07%

1.2200|~42OO|______x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|23.93%|26.99%

1.2000|~44OO|______x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|25.18%|24.91%

1.1800|~46OO|__x___x_o_______o_____________________________|26.42%|22.83%

1.1600|~48OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|27.67%|20.75%

1.1400|~5OOO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|28.92%|18.66%

1.1200|~52OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|30.17%|16.58%

1.1000|~54OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|31.41%|14.5%

1.0800|~56OO|__x_o_________________________________________|32.66%|12.42%

1.0600|~58OO|__x___________________________________________|33.91%|10.34%

1.0400|~6OOO|__x___________________________________________|35.15%|8.25%

1.0200|~62OO|__x___________________________________________|36.4%|6.17%

1.0000|~64OO|o_x___________________________________________|37.65%|4.09%

0.9800|~66OO|o_x___________________________________________|38.9%|2.01%

0.9600|~68OO|______________________________________________|40.14%|-0.07%

Column|||||||2_1_5_1_5_9_4_3_8_2_3_3_1_4_1_4_4_1_1_5_3_1_8_|

Count||||||||__1___0___________1_____0___2_____1_0_____0___|

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Split Compiler Warnings Hsplit

PICASSO 2010.04.06 07:05 #155

EUR/USD

Forecast for this week, 05-09. H4 graph

The pair is trading along an uptrend; however, the “S” trendline’s break and also the picture of the daily trend, where the market is within a downtrend, speak in favor of downtrend development with the drop target seen at level 1.3190 (“F” trendline).

After the pair gets under level 1.3430, the downside momentum will grow stronger. Level 1.3530 is the resistance for now; rising above this level will be a signal of downtrend cancellation. If so, next resistance will be found at level 1.3630, and then the key resistance at 1.3710. But still, we should not count on uptrend development, because there is a large cloud of resistance levels above 1.3530 and up to 1.3710. If the pair eventually rises above 1.3740, the “forecast for the next month” takes effect.