XO_Method REVISED - page 103
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Valeo,
thank you for your lessons! I have a question, too: Is regular or hidden divergence between the price and the CCI-15 important for trade entry or exit? The entries #1 and #2 on your charts are preceded by regular divergences (about 30 minutes earlier). The problem with divergences is that they can be very deceiving in a trending market.
Thanks Valeo for a very clear and concise lesson. Creating the template yourself as you suggested certainly helped, and I am now even subconsciously looking at the cci and its levels in a different light.
Just a question, unrelated to cci tho'. Would you take a trade if it was counter to the 60/120 (direction and trend) ema's, provided the cci's agreed, and provided the price was not too close to those ema's.
Have a good weekend.
Regards
PardyIt depends on your degree of "greed"
, but "Yes" I have done that before and have a friend who regularly does that.
Best wishes.
Valeo, I have a new question !
Please see your #2 entry
on this candle, we could see that, the CCI-15 crossed the Zero line, and also out the channel ! but, the close of this candle is very close to the Fibo !
so, why you entered here ? and why you do not wait for the break of the Fibo ?
wait for your answer !
thanks !Idealy I will NOT trade that Long; reason being that if you look to the left you will see that 3 times the price hit the 60-EMA and bounced back. Therefore the direction stayed Short. Should you wish to trade this Long, you have to be aware as to how far away in pips, the 120-EMA is which will give you enough scope to trade it, should it break the 60-EMA.
Although the Fibos now form a Resistance, one can trade through the Fibos ina retrace being aware that they are there. Otherwise you will never trade with all the Fibos and Pivots in your way. You get the "hang" of it as you go along. Remember tah the most important Fib-levels are the ones from the most recent "Active Leg".
To me it seemed as if the trade was pretty much exhausted and not going short immediately unless it retraced a bit, hence the entry.
You will have to look at it in context and one such proviso is the RSI set-up, which we will discuss this coming weekend. You may be surprised!!
Best wishes.
Valeo, thank you for your lessons! I have a question, too: Is regular or hidden divergence between the price and the CCI-15 important for trade entry or exit? The entries #1 and #2 on your charts are preceded by regular divergences (about 30 minutes earlier). The problem with divergences is that they can be very deceiving in a trending market.
Hi Marty,
I do not regard the CCI as a good divergence indicator. I only use the RSI for divergence and as you correctly stated, divergence is not always accurate, but together with other indicators, it works in most cases.
If anyone who trades the CCI successfully disagrees with me, would you mind sharing your experience with us please?
Best wishes.
Valeo,
thank you for your answer! One more question referring to your charts:
I cannot figure out why the CCI crosses at 10:55 and 11:30 (after the Fib-level break) were not valid entries. Was this too late in the trend?
Valeo,
thank you for your answer! One more question referring to your charts:
I cannot figure out why the CCI crosses at 10:55 and 11:30 (after the Fib-level break) were not valid entries. Was this too late in the trend?Mark the Low on the 09h40 candle and draw a horizontal line across to 13h05 in hind sight. I had the Fib there and therefore it was NOT in hindsight at the time.
Therefore the reason is that the price was too close to the previous Low @ 1.4821 in my case for me to want to trade a short where there is not enough pips to warrant the trade. Risk was way too high.
Best wishes.
Zlr .............
It was brought to my attention that some people do not understand what ZLRs are. So for the record, the CCI does NOT have to touch the zero-line to fullfill the criterium for a ZLR. I attach 2 examples for you to study.
Hope this clears it up for you.
If you are not sure, ask me here please; that is why I am here for.
Best wishes.
Using USD/CHF as a sentiment indicator...
I'm not going to say much about this, apart from that the GBP will tend to move in opposition to USD/CHF because GBP moves on sentiment and USD/CHF gives the earliest idea of market sentiment for or against the dollar and the most volatile. I would say we need to hold above 1.2040 for a sustained short GBP with the swissy targetting the upside targets (resistances). My possible guess is US traders are pushing the GBP back up to 1.5070 for a sell off...but we would then need to see USD/CHF breaking new ground to confirm. Otherwise LONG on neg US GDP.
[edits]
ValeoFX do you monitor other pairs? On 2 monitors, I have on monitor 1 the weekly, H8, H4, H1, H15 and H5 of cable - layered windows so it is easy to change between them. On my right monitor I have M30 charts of USD/JPY; USD/CHF; GBP/USD; EUR/USD; AUD/USD; and any other pair I might want to trade such as AUD/JPY or EUR/JPY. These all have the daily and historical pivot points. On brokerage platform, I also keep an eye on: gold; oil; S&P500 + futures; FTSE100; DAX; NASDAQ100. May be I am complicating something simple, but I feel it is giving me an edge to have this additional info.
I also watch soy beans, cotton, heating oil and palladium - but that's just for kicks! (joke)...
Today I was kept from further shorting the GBP/USD after the run was essentially over because I knew the USD/CHF was having serious problems with 1.2040 - the fibonacci extension of the upmove. I shared this in the skype trading room and someone requested I post a "lesson" here. In other words, I like to see the dollar being sold "across the board" if I'm going to go long in GBP and vice versa. I hope that helps anyone struggling. I have been doing quite well lately, and am nowing equipping my charts with the XO method once more to increase profits.
[sidenote] actually the fact that 1.2040 was the 38.2 retrace of the downmove was of equal if not greater importance, especially considering the next wave down was that of the news result and more than 200 pips of move!!!
Thanks
Thanks Suk.
I think the value of the skype trade room has for all of us increased tremendously since your and Joe's presence there.
To many many many more profitable trades, which I have no doubt at all Valeo's system will provide us.
Thanks again, and I'll start postin some of my trades and observations as well.
Regards
Pardy
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Definitely on the "buy list" - I'm going to enjoy this toy. They are taking orders at a cool million + ....
Joe & ValeoFX plus others on this thread will also be up for getting one I expect ...