EURUSD Next Month Outlook - ranging within consolidating levels with 1.0461 as a real target

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.26 19:29

Crédit Agricole for Week Ahead: FOMC, GDP, Durable Goods, ECI, Cons Conf (based on efxnews article)

• "Durable goods orders are expected to rise by a sturdy 3.0% in June, boosted by a jump in non-defence aircraft orders. The bi-annual Paris air show in mid-June reported record levels of attendants and exhibitors, with over USD130bn orders announced. The strong showing was apparent in June’s Boeing aircraft orders: 161 new orders compared with 11 in May.
• We see risk of a small slip in the July consumer confidence index to 99.0, which bounced by almost 7pt in June. That rise fully reversed the April/May weakness and pushed the index close to its post-recession high of 103.8, reached in January. A likely decline in July would primarily reflect a partial reversal from the June jump.
• No rate hikes are expected in July. There are no updates to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections or a press conference following the meeting. Fed officials are looking for more evidence that economic growth is sufficiently strong and labour market conditions continue to firm enough to return inflation to the Committee’s longer-run 2% objective over the medium term. We believe that the FOMC will begin rate normalisation in September with a gradual, data-dependent pace of rate hikes thereafter.
• We look for Q2 real GDP to grow at a 2.5% pace in the advance release following a 0.2% contraction in Q1. The Q1 stall reflected a wide range of transitory factors, in our view. While oil and dollar impacts may continue to weigh, we expect a broad-based recovery in activity in Q2. We look for consumer spending to pick up to a 2.6% rate from 2.1% in Q1, on the back on cheap gasoline prices and a stronger labour market. The deep negative contribution of net exports in Q1 (−1.9pp) is expected to turn slightly positive as trade flows recovered from the port disruptions. We expect greater residential investment in line with robust growth in housing starts, while nonresidential investment likely recovered but remained relatively weak.
• The Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI), a measure of total worker compensation costs, likely rose at a 0.6% pace, easing modestly from a 0.7% rate in Q1. Wages and salaries, which account for 70% of the index, are expected to rise at a slower pace, in line with the Q2 average hourly earnings growth of 0.5% on the quarter (Q1: 0.7%). We do see upside risk, however, drawing from encouraging developments in survey data.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.27 09:32

SEB bank - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/CHF (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: "Testing nearby dynamic resistance. Buyers keep testing dynamic resistance at the low end of the short-term "Cloud" (at market). An "Upper Range Extension" (topside violation of the European opening hour range) would set some pressure on more resistance at 1.1075/85."

USD/JPY: "Short-term "Round-top" forming. Price action is tilted to the downside and first-hand dynamic support has been eroded. A counter-trend move lower has become increasingly likely - more so if breaking a near-term "Equality point" at 123.28 and after this not breaking back over 124.19. If this unfolds as thought, the next attraction/support below to scout is located at 122.72/45."

EUR/CHF: "An ongoing inter-range climb - Price action was bullish throughout the week last week, but little to take note of until now when a short-term "Equality point" has been violated and the early Jun high is under pressure. If not stopping here 1.0610 & 1.0650 are attraction/resistance levels to scout. In a medium-term perspective the next key level must be the Mid-Feb reaction high of 1.0811."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.27 17:46

RBS - 1.05 target for EURUSD (based on forexlive article)

The Royal Bank of Scotland predicted the price for EURUSD as 1.05 1-year target, and those are the 5 key factors from RBS about why 1.05:

• "None of this has much directly to do with Greece."
• "Other factors that support some renewed fall in EUR/USD this year: faster money positioning in EUR/USD is now much cleaner than it was a few months ago, short EUR/USD is a far less crowded trade."
  
• "The German government bond market, which went into price melt-down in March, raising serious risks to other most owned positions like short EUR/USD, has stabilised."
• "Oil prices are falling again steadily."
• "Another key variable is US data and the US Federal Reserve. Informing our EUR/USD lower view is the assumption that the Federal Reserve makes its first tightening move in September his year. That is a close call. But a September rate cut is not fully priced and -if manifest - could give the Dollar a boost into Q4."
  

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.28 09:00

Deutsche Bank with updated EURUSD review: target at 1.02 by Q3-end (based on efxnews article)

The Deutsche Bank updated their view on EUR/USD summarized all the factors and made a conclusion about target EUR/USD at 1.02 by Q3-end:

• "The European outflow story remains fully on track. We continue to see European outflows as part of a multi-year shift in portfolio allocation behaviour towards foreign assets."
  
• "The most important is the Fed's re-investment policy on QE assets, because decisions here will determine the prospect of what would essentially be QT, or quantitative tightening: nearly half a trillion dollars matures in 2016, almost equivalent to a full QE program in reverse."
  
• "Irrespective of lift-off, the key point then is that Fed tightening is multi-dimensional and likely to steadily reinforce a persistent shift away from the dollar as the world's major funding currency."