-Tony Robbins
...false narratives you concoct to rationalize what is happening as way to get through your professional day. Your reality is an artificial construct, your sense of self is a miasma of chemical reactions, your world is full of false beliefs and erroneous assumptions. You are a massive biomechanical errata-creating device.
-Barry Ritholtz
My forecast for 2015: expect fluctuation, probably a lot more
fluctuation than we've seen from the January 2013 impulse into September
2014 -- i.e., prior to this 4th quarter roller coaster. It is logical
to assume the volatility of the last 3 months is a shot over the bow for
2015 because volatility was so dampened for years prior to October.
Recently, we walked through our specific reasoning in this space as to why 2015 should see a 20-30% move in the S&P 500 -- in either direction -- which is in contrast to what we've seen in the last few years.
I can't help but wonder if we get both a 20-30% advance and decline in 2015 if the last few months are any indication.
Paulo Coelho has a saying, "If you want to be successful, you must respect one rule -- never lie to yourself."
You can lie to yourself about thinking you have a clue as to what the
market is really going to do in 2015 or you can apply a method which
anticipates, reacts to and capitalizes on what Mr. Market wants to do in
the moment.
But the bottom line is we get the trades we think we deserve.
