Sentiment is weak today, as investors wait on sales forecasts for 2019. Attention will be on European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s speech before the European Parliament. Following last week’s ECB meeting, Draghi will likely not provide new information...
US data released on 24 January points to ongoing strength in the US economy. The labor market continues to tighten – weekly jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 199,000, the lowest level since 1969. The Markit composite PMI index inched up to 54.5 from 54...
Markets have been closing in positive territory las week, as investors have been meticulously watching communications relating to US and China trade progress...
Global monetary policy, which was expected to tighten significantly, has shifted in the last month. Markets still expect 2019 to bring tighter financial conditions, but not at the current slower pace...
Today’s monetary policy meeting at the European Central Bank is expected not to move the Euro with respect to the dollar. We expect ECB President Mario Draghi to be cautious on rates and present a positive view of the broad economy. The EUR/USD is expected to remain stable along 1...
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its policy rate unchanged at -0.10% at tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting. This comes on the heels of a recent cut in forecasted GDP growth for 2019 to 1.30%. BoJ is even more pessimistic, expecting growth below 1...
A Brexit delay looks likely, but this does not necessarily give a resolution. If the new European Parliament votes in May 2019 not to give further concessions to the UK, including on the Irish backstop, a second referendum or even general elections in the UK are likely...
Coming up to the USA’s federal government shutdown, the American economy was in acceleration mode. Although new data are scant, it appears shutdown will have more negative effect than originally forecast. Traders should be prepared for disappointment...
Euro has been unable to gain traction against major G10 peers suggesting mounting downside risk. The rationale seems clear for bearish sentiment. Incoming economic data, led by weakness in Germany has been troubling...
After facing a tough defeat in front of the UK parliament and surviving a vote of no confidence, PM May continues struggling to make her points among the assembly...
Euro has been unable to gain traction against major G10 peers suggesting mounting downside risk. The rationale seems clear for bearish sentiment. Incoming economic data, led by weakness in Germany has been troubling...
As Q4 earnings start to roll out, the best scenario is that companies acknowledge natural cyclical softening within the context of economic expansion and explain tailwinds in specific sectors or industries. Investors are likely to react positively...
As Brexit dominates headlines, it is not dominating investors. UK 2-year and 10-year gilt yields rose slightly to +0.825% and +1.287% (+2.46% and +2.30% percentage change) while the British pound remained almost untouched, bouncing by +0...
Chinese officials confirmed further monetary easing to support economic growth, including tax stimuli and credits – and this pleased investors...
Tonight will see the UK House of Commons vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed Withdrawal Agreement at about 7 pm London time. We expect a refusal. If May is rebuffed enough, we could see vote of no confidence against the government or May’s resignation...
As a vote on the EU Withdrawal Agreement nears, Prime Minister May’s proposal looks likely to lose. Despite her efforts to wring concessions from Brussels, Members of Parliament are overwhelmingly against her Brexit option...
US-Chinese trade talks ended and optimism about the outcome sent the Chinese yuan higher and the US dollar lower yesterday afternoon...
One week before the House of Commons is expected to debate and vote on the Withdrawal Agreement, it seems clear that the likelihood of seeing UK MPs voting in favor of May’s divorce deal as rather low...
Global trade, earnings downgrades, Brexit, and Fed policy cast a long shadow, but at the same time, there are signs that point to opportunities. US-Chinese trade talks ended and optimism about the outcome sent the Chinese yuan high and the US dollar lower yesterday afternoon...
