MQL5 Programs Market

In this article, we will examine how to build and apply Markov chains in market conditions: from selecting states and counting transitions to generating forecasts of trajectories and levels. We will also see how Markov chains can be applied to qualitative and quantitative data, ways to account for rare events, and the impact of the forecast horizon. Examples are provided using prices and indicators, as well as an option for evaluating a sequence of trades, with ready-to-use implementations in MQL5.

This article describes an MQL5 Expert Advisor that models the market as a random graph rather than a fixed structure. Bars are encoded into discrete states; bar-to-bar moves form a decaying, Laplace-smoothed transition matrix, and a k-step random walk yields a bounded directional signal gated by an Erdos–Renyi null-model test. A separate trade-outcome graph over R-milestones learns survival probabilities to manage exits, turning position management into evidence-based rules.

This MQL5 dashboard aggregates closed deals by symbol and UTC hour, calculates win rate and average reward‑to‑risk, and displays the results as two color‑coded heatmaps. A companion table in the Experts tab highlights the strongest and weakest symbol/hour cells, with an option to require a minimum trade count to reduce noise.

In this article, we continue implementing the ST-Expert framework approaches, focusing on the practical aspects of applying them using MQL5. Earlier, we examined the theoretical foundations and key components of the model; now we move on to working directly with graph attention algorithms and local and global attention distribution. The main goal of this work is to demonstrate how ST-Expert's conceptual ideas are transformed into workable solutions for analyzing and forecasting financial time series.

The article extracts the series' divergence logic into DivergenceEngine.mqh, a reusable header for MQL5 indicators and Expert Advisors. It details the struct-based design, oscillator options (MPO4 or RSI), pivot and state handling, and the minimal access API. A Parabolic SAR EA demonstrates integration by adapting the acceleration factor from the detected divergence, providing a clear pattern you can reuse without duplicating code.

The second part of the series examines the mathematical framework for multivariate random variables, which is necessary for analyzing the dependence and joint behavior of market assets. This section describes joint distribution functions, the concepts of marginal and conditional distributions, and the conditions for dependence and independence of variables. The theoretical material is based on extending the analogy between probability and mass to multidimensional space. Particular attention is given to measures of association: from classical linear covariance and correlation to modern tools such as copulas and Shannon mutual information.