Andreas Bauer / 个人资料

Hi,



After making my first attempts in the forex and stock market, I realized the outrageous volatility of the financial markets.

It is impossible to trade the lower timeframe without a reliable fund of plus information and trading skill, that can give you an edge over the market movement and other market participants.
If you seriously think you have found that advantage with retail indicators and software, I wish you good luck with it...
Otherwise, switch to the higher timeframes like 1h and above. Use 15 min. only for optimisation.
[Check the thread 'EUR USD Only' on forexfactory.com from Ata Turkoglu; you will learn a lot from E/U trading]

So one thing is for sure: You must have a reliable trading edge, that you will hardly find in the lower timeframes. Simply because the volatility is too high and unpredictable.

If you want to go the scientific way, I suggest to trade in the 1h, 4h, daily and weekly chart.
Please note: High risk-reward ratio trades is something you won't find that often in the forex market.
[1:4 risk reward ratio is high and best to come across with stock trading (on news)].
By the way, understanding Support & Resistance Zones already makes 70% of what you need for successful trading.

Another thing is also for sure:
There are only two ways to trade - either the classical approach, chart-ananlysis, news gathering and maybe some volume insight, or the way of gambling your way through the uncertainties of the market: Grid, martingale, hedge on a small account.
There are people out there, that think they can make use of the classical style of trading with the integration of martingale or hedge and still make use of the safety of the classical approach - this is nonsense.
As soon as you integrate any martingale style, the classical appraoch with fixed StopLosses (Trailing Stops) is no more valid.

With the classical way of trading you make losses up to a certain point, and cut them off when they hit SL or a daily drawdown value.
With the approach of martingale, hedge or grid you just end this way of trading - your calculation from this point forward is based on the volatility of the market, and in bad situations this can be infinite.
This is why it only makes sense to use these dangerous approaches on small accounts, if you want to make use of it at all.

Best way to look at the market is through the eyes of a big player. So, what does a big player do?!
1. He has a big account
2. All systems he needs are prepared: Auto news gathering (audio/screen), stock screening, volatility measuring, alternative informations, automatic chart analysis, automatic strategies picking + optimisation (neural networks), volume insight + analysis, and maybe some more.
We do not need to have them all - this is why I said that trading in short timeframes is totally different to higher ones.
3. No matter where he enters the market, and even when he is wrong with his placed trade direction: he has all the tools & capital he needs - outrageous and strict money management - to exit most trades with break-even, or small loss.
Why is this so? While retail traders like us go into the game without having made their homework - counted their money, calculated their risk, and how many trades they need to exit a bad trade - the big players have done all this.
That means that instead of opening big positions at once, open many small positions [pyramide way of trade] using a semi-automated system.
Be strictly focused on your rules and money management, and no matter how much money you have for your trading: Fill your trading account only with 10% to maximum 20% with it. If you do not have much money, you can of course put all your money into one account, but then you -still- have to look at it as a gambling game.
Once doubled your small account, you must withdraw the earnings and trade on with your initial payment. One day a big spike might occur on the market you trade, but then you will be safe with you securities you have already withdrawn, and the loss of your small account (5-10%) will not hurt you at all.
4. He never goes too deep into a losing trade. To avoid this, he a) uses the pyramide way of entering trades (many small trades) or b) just cuts the loss. But yes, using stop losses before break-even means, that you must look at it in a way I described it with the small account (5-10%) in point 3. You must actually see it as gambling money, that you can afford to lose; most likely several times.
5. He has fundamental information. While we retail trader tend to trade solely on chart patterns and technical analysis, he also has other information.
Volume is not the holy grail, but for sure it can give you a big advantage of: Whether to place a trade or not, or: At which price to place a trade. [volfix .net for ex.]
Just btw: Volume may make sense with indices, stocks. But it is limited when it comes to forex, because the fx market is a) very big and b) many trades of banks, hedge-funds are not being provided in any volume data-feed. Futures on currencies only make a small part of the whole forex market.
6. News. Getting news in a fast pace costs money. Whether bloomberg, reuters eikon or another (not that expensive) Squawk Box: To be able to trade forex, indices, equities or stocks on news release, you must pay for a service. Those users get many news 30 sec. before off. news release.

So in the end that means, you need to pay some money, to be ready to trade efficiently.
Going to the markets without some good cash will actually not make much sense.
As I said, you must split your capital into 10 or 20 and be ready to - due to training and exercising - lose half of it before making any money.

In the end, how can we practically imagine how the big players and banks trade?!
Big banks tell each of their traders to survey only one or two securities a day. Not more.
Those traders goal is to achieve 5% growth a month, not more.
So all they do is to check the charts, news and volume all day long.
Sometimes they are even limited to only trade into one direction:
One trades the securities only with buy orders, another one only with sell orders.

Stock traders do the same, although they are not limited to only two stocks. That would be waste of money.
You need to have a very good stock screening software for it [agena for ex. or other software, that can scan many thousands of US, EU & asian stocks], and keep an eye on the news.
But in the end it is worthy, because trading carefully picked stocks can give you a win-ratio of 1:4, which you cannot often find in the forex world.
So, if there is a holy grail, it is the selection of *what* you want to trade.
Trading solely forex / currencies will for sure lead to so called over-trading with the time. Traders think their must be a trading opportunity in the markets at any time, and they start to take high risk trades without any real chart signal / technical formation / news. This way they lose money.
On the over hand, in the stock market, there is actually almost each day a possibility to trade. You just need a good stock scanner and news report.
I personally think, that this is the way the rich people trade (those of them that really trade on their own or even made their fortune with it).

The other way is: Buying a reliable EA.
But this sounds easier than it is.
Always check the live signal for a robot, and if it is really that robot that trades (100% automatically).
Such a signal must have favorable 6 months of track, and the coder must offer you on-going service. Whether to shut down the EA for news releases or not, for example.

Darwinex, Myfxbook, FxBlue, PsyQuotation or CopyFx are some other platforms, that offer quite good signal subscription.
Reliable Forex Brokers such as IC markets, Dukascopy, Alpari, FxPro, Pepperstone, Robo Forex and so on also offer PAMM services.

There are also many programs for semi-automatic trading out there; I think Mike is doing a good job so far:
perfecttrendsystem .com


Last word: Structure (price levels, S&R, trend-lines, fibos, candlestick patterns and psychological levels) are much more important in trading than any wave indicators [MA, Oscillators, aso.].
In the end, the clearly visible signals are more important than complicated ones.



Best way to trade as per my definition:
1) News Events - you won't believe how much impact News have onto the movement of a price. Big Players buy or sell outrageous packages at news, before or after.
This is something you only see once you have subcribed to a volume data feed, that costs you money. Actually, big investors only wait for news, let it be official or just rumors.
So you need a fast News Provider / Squawk Box. There are some; the costs are actually 100-350$ a month
Check this: https://www.mql5.com/go?link=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elitetrader.com%2Fet%2Fthreads%2Ftwitter-as-a-news-squawk-minus-the-twitter.337111%2F
Don't forget either, that there is a huge dark pool of interbank-trading, that we have no clue about. Still, real volume of futures can show as a big part of whether the price is going (trending) or not.
However, doesn't matter what volume data you have, filtering ranges or extreme up><down movements will still be a tricky thing.
Volume data platforms are: ATAS, voflix, NinjaTrader 8 and some others [best is to take a look at a future broker, and which platforms he offers, for examaple AMP futures].
2) Big Players start a screening - If news are being released, they do not have an impact on all stocks/markets. If you have a reliable stock screening software and/ or dashboard for indices, forex movements, than you can check what news effect what market
Stock screening platforms are for ex. TeleChart2000 or Agena Trader or TradingView.
3) Volume Analysis - this shows you the potential odds you need, for the possibility of a higher success entry & exit [a lot of stuff, coaches teach a different way, unforunately; but I think volumeteam.com / heldental.com (german) is quite good. Please look for engl. speaking websites here].


List of important websites:
forexpeacearmy.com
forexfactory.com
tradingview.com
myfxbook.com
darwinex.com
fxblue.com
tradingcentral.com
soehoe.id
psyquotation.com
worldwide-invest.org
elitetrader.com
futures.io
seekingalpha.com
capinside.com
trendspider.com
trade-ideas.com
collective2.com
whalewisdom.com
quantconnect.com
strategyquant.com

Good trading platforms:
bookmap, sierra chart, x trader, TWS, ATAS,
mt5 customized, Ninja Trader, Jigzaw, Volfix

Telechart2000, Think or Swim, Agena Trader, Trade Ideas & finviz are good stock screening platforms




My opinion about bitcoin:

Just as predicted in mid of 2019, BTC has 'crashed' up and risen above 30k $ in 2020!
BTC, in near future, could be even more favorited than Gold, in terms of safe haven.
Why? - Because you can sell btc very fast and at any time, while Gold does not offer this flexibility.
On the other side, Gold has always been a metal, that had times of low validation.
People tend to sell their gold, because other than looking at it, is not possible [if you do not use it for jewelry].
Additionally, one must keep it safe and secret.
That means, that BTC might get very attractive for big investments. It all depends on how stable price will get one day.
My Bet: It will stabilize. On a horizon of 10 years,
a) infrastructure will rise & become very reliable - maybe even more than todays inter-banking system SWIFT, as btc infrastructure is decentral and lies in the interest of individual operators, that do very much - and even more - than a centralized, directed system might be able to do.
b) bitcoins famous name: Never underestimate the aspect of popularity. Other cryptos have nothing on btc, and won't have as it was the first (think about tesla)
c) Just as tesla stock, btc was under big pressure in the past. It was in the hands of speculative traders.
But: As market share growth, it ain't easy for spe. traders to trade it any more, and they lose their interest.
Just like Apple or other big companies, it makes no sense to speculate with it.
d) As the price of btc develops by real sell/buy transactions, I predict that in future there will be a lot more 'Holders' than 'Sellers'.
This will contribute in its further stable development.
- The only two points, that can end the story of btc, are a) governmental laws - prohibition like in china as of today, or b) the end of mining.
As soon as 21 mio. btc are mined - somewhere in 2100+ -, the miners, that offer the infrastructure, will make less money than they do today.
The only reason for them to keep the infrastructure alive, is to ask sellers & buyers for some transaction cost - just as it happens today.
In my view, it is totally reasonable for investors, to pay a small fee for a) real independance and b) sovereignity of your funds.
Here comes into effect, that btc is so popular.

In the end, we will see how the governments and states will react on this independent money system,
(while we as people, are totally locked out of the money politics).
Governments today practive modern money theory, and we cannot do anything about our funds.

Furthermore, I do not see that btc will be primarily used for paying products or being used as currency, but much more, like gold, as a fund saver.
In 10+ years, when the price has stabilized on a common level.

My guess is, that both will survive: The governmental money policy and usage of fiat money for everyday life,
and btc as a big addition to your asset diversification and anti-inflation factor.

As of today, I see prices of BTC not lower than 10k; anyone who has bought around that price is lucky and should keep it.
20k is a level, that is not that old and has not been penetrated that often; so price could go down to it again.

- However, two scenarios are likely possible:

1) BTC reaches its goal of 21 million bitcoins mined; the network stays as it is. People keep on trading or holding it;
network suppliers charge a small fee for each transaction. As btc has passed a lot of market tests and is still alive,
it stays the crypto currency number one. "Why change a winning team?" or in other words: Why replace something, that has proofed itself?

2) People get used to handle with btc; the mentality changes, and they do not see crypto currencies as 'artificial counterfeit' money.
Other cryptos, that have a better technology than btc - for ex. which do not charge any fees for, or which offer much faster transactions - become popular and
replace btc. This could be one alternative, it also could be two.
An underlying on gold would be favorible here, in my opinion.

Or: The price never stabilizes, goes up and down, bubble after bubble. That would mean that btc just becomes the joke of the century ;)


What ever the matter, one point is crucial: Other than gold for example, which price cannot go down to zero, it is theoretically possible, that btc (or any other currency) could go down to 0.
That means for any serious investor: Earnings & Winnings from btc, as well as from other assets, must be transferred into real life assets by time.
I see gold, silver, raw metals (omnidum, iridium etc) as 'real of the real' deal.
Otherwise, real estate / farmers land is a good investment, espec. in beautiful areas...



Greets from Germany.