1. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich -quick adventurer.
2. It is my purpose to include some of the high-lights of a lifetime of speculative experience-a record of some of the failures and successes and the lessons that each has taught. Out of it all emerges my theory of time element in trading, which i regard as the most important factor in successful speculation.
3. But before we go further, let me warn you that the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking,and reaching your own conclusions.
4. Anyone who is inclined to speculate should look at speculation as a business and treat it as such and not regard it as a pure gamble as so many people are apt to do .
5. My theory and practical application have proved to my satisfaction that nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities or commodities. There are times when one should speculate, and just as surely there are times when one should not speculate. There is a very true adage:"You can beat a horse race, but you can't beat the races."So it is with market operations. There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done.
6. To invest or speculate successfully, one must form an opinion as to what the next move of importance will be in a given stock. Speculation is nothing more than anticipating coming movements. In order to anticipate correctly, one must have a definite basis for that anticipation. For instance, analyzc in your own mind the effect, marketwise, that certain piece of news which has been made public many have in relation to the market. Try to anticipate the psychological effect of this particular item on the mind of the public particularly that portion of the public which primarily is interested. If you believe it likely to have a definite bullish or bearish effect marketwise, don't trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion because the effect marketswise may not be as pronounced as you are inclined to believe it should be.
