|
4 年
経験
|
0
製品
|
0
デモバージョン
|
|
0
ジョブ
|
1
シグナル
|
2
購読者
|
Personal Contacts:
WhatsApp: +8801617276927
Email: sarowarjahan@outlook.com
Website: https://www.sarowarjahan.com
WhatsApp: +8801617276927
Email: sarowarjahan@outlook.com
Website: https://www.sarowarjahan.com
Sarowar Jahan
Sell USD/JPY - TD trade of the week.
TD recommends selling USD/JPY with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 106.00. The spot is at 104.85
"Mobility has slowed in the US and Asian but not at the European pace in the past two weeks. Our mapping of the global mobility data shows the USD trading at a 2.15% discount, which becomes problematic if election uncertainty mounts," TD notes.
"As a result, we sell USD/JPY as our Trade of the Week, anticipating more election tricks than treats."
TD recommends selling USD/JPY with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 106.00. The spot is at 104.85
"Mobility has slowed in the US and Asian but not at the European pace in the past two weeks. Our mapping of the global mobility data shows the USD trading at a 2.15% discount, which becomes problematic if election uncertainty mounts," TD notes.
"As a result, we sell USD/JPY as our Trade of the Week, anticipating more election tricks than treats."
· 4
Sarowar Jahan
EUR/USD: On The Defensive Ahead Of A Volatile Week; What's Next? - Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the EUR/USD outlook into next week's US elections.
"We assume that postelection uncertainty in the US would drag on for a while longer after Election Day, with investors maintaining their defensive stance across the board. This could help the USD and weigh on the EUR," CACIB notes.
"That said, evidence of a decisive Democratic victory next week could weigh on the USD and propel EUR/USD back to the highs of its recent 1.17-1.1950 trading range.
Equally, evidence that the status quo may be preserved – eg, a surprise re-election of President Trump and a Republican control of the Senate – could push EUR/USD closer to its recent lows around 1.1600," CACIB adds.
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the EUR/USD outlook into next week's US elections.
"We assume that postelection uncertainty in the US would drag on for a while longer after Election Day, with investors maintaining their defensive stance across the board. This could help the USD and weigh on the EUR," CACIB notes.
"That said, evidence of a decisive Democratic victory next week could weigh on the USD and propel EUR/USD back to the highs of its recent 1.17-1.1950 trading range.
Equally, evidence that the status quo may be preserved – eg, a surprise re-election of President Trump and a Republican control of the Senate – could push EUR/USD closer to its recent lows around 1.1600," CACIB adds.
· 4
Sarowar Jahan
GBP/USD: Brexit A Sideshow For Building COVID Risks; Staying Short - MUFG
MUFG Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP/USD, expressing that via holding a short position targeting a move towards 1.2630.
"The rates market is slowly pricing in a greater chance of negative rates in 2021. By the August 2021 MPC meeting, OIS market pricing implies a 90% probability of Bank Rate falling to -0.10%. First to come is likely to be more QE highlighted yesterday in comments by Gertjan Vlieghe that the outlook for monetary policy was “skewed towards adding further stimulus”. Indeed, more QE in November is looking likely now," MUFG notes.
"In many ways, Brexit is somewhat of a side-show to the building risks as COVID spreads that clearly will increasingly undermine GBP performance. We continue to see downside risks, reflected in our FX trade idea from last Friday," MUFG adds.
MUFG Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP/USD, expressing that via holding a short position targeting a move towards 1.2630.
"The rates market is slowly pricing in a greater chance of negative rates in 2021. By the August 2021 MPC meeting, OIS market pricing implies a 90% probability of Bank Rate falling to -0.10%. First to come is likely to be more QE highlighted yesterday in comments by Gertjan Vlieghe that the outlook for monetary policy was “skewed towards adding further stimulus”. Indeed, more QE in November is looking likely now," MUFG notes.
"In many ways, Brexit is somewhat of a side-show to the building risks as COVID spreads that clearly will increasingly undermine GBP performance. We continue to see downside risks, reflected in our FX trade idea from last Friday," MUFG adds.
· 2
Sarowar Jahan
GBP/USD: Cable's Stable Floor Around 1.28 But Uncertainty Is Acute - TD
TD Research discusses GBP outlook and sees GBP/USD making a stable floor around 1.28 in the near-term.
"A deal remains our baseline scenario. A No-Deal outcome is still possible, however. With the 31 December deadline approaching, chances of an accident have likely risen, though sit around 20%." TD notes.
"Brexit remains a major risk, but we now see this more in tactical than strategic terms. The range of outcomes has narrowed and the “Deal” on the table represents a very hard Brexit...At current levels, most of Brexit’s damage may already be priced, but the situation remains highly fluid, and uncertainty is acute," TD adds
TD Research discusses GBP outlook and sees GBP/USD making a stable floor around 1.28 in the near-term.
"A deal remains our baseline scenario. A No-Deal outcome is still possible, however. With the 31 December deadline approaching, chances of an accident have likely risen, though sit around 20%." TD notes.
"Brexit remains a major risk, but we now see this more in tactical than strategic terms. The range of outcomes has narrowed and the “Deal” on the table represents a very hard Brexit...At current levels, most of Brexit’s damage may already be priced, but the situation remains highly fluid, and uncertainty is acute," TD adds
· 2
Sarowar Jahan
BoC To Cut In April - CIBC
CIBC discussed its interpretation of today's BoC meeting; arguing the meeting supports their call for a rate cut in April.
CIBC explains:
Sitting comfortably with an economy near full employment and the 2% inflation target, there was no pressing reason for Governor Poloz to get up from his easy chair today, but the Bank is now a bit more worried that it will have to act. Rates were left on hold at 1.75%, but the accompanying statement didn't sound as assured that this would continue to be the case. Its concluding line mentioned that it will be "watching closely" for signs that the recent slowdown persists, particularly watching consumption, housing and business investment.
We'll hold to our view that a climb in unemployment in the coming months will tests the Bank's confidence about consumption, leading to a quarter-point cut in April. Bullish for short rates and bearish for the C$, given the more dovish statement than expected by markets today.
CIBC discussed its interpretation of today's BoC meeting; arguing the meeting supports their call for a rate cut in April.
CIBC explains:
Sitting comfortably with an economy near full employment and the 2% inflation target, there was no pressing reason for Governor Poloz to get up from his easy chair today, but the Bank is now a bit more worried that it will have to act. Rates were left on hold at 1.75%, but the accompanying statement didn't sound as assured that this would continue to be the case. Its concluding line mentioned that it will be "watching closely" for signs that the recent slowdown persists, particularly watching consumption, housing and business investment.
We'll hold to our view that a climb in unemployment in the coming months will tests the Bank's confidence about consumption, leading to a quarter-point cut in April. Bullish for short rates and bearish for the C$, given the more dovish statement than expected by markets today.
· 2
Sarowar Jahan
Fundamental Analysis - AUD
Date: 28-May-2019
AUD - Very Bearish
At their May meeting, the RBA stressed that in order to avoid any future easing, there would have to be a marked improvement in Australia's labour market.
However, last week's employment report for April saw the Unemployment Rate tick higher to 5.2% from March's 5.0%. Furthermore, although Employment Change was positive, a deeper look into the report shows a gloomier picture than the headline would suggest with Full-Time Employment Change printing at -6.3K.
Given Australia's overall disappointing April employment report, the market now expects the RBA to ease rates at their June meeting. According to ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, as of 20th May, the market is pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut on June 4th.
Elsewhere, tensions between the US and China over trade negotiations continue to escalate, further supporting our bearish bias.
What do you think?
Date: 28-May-2019
AUD - Very Bearish
At their May meeting, the RBA stressed that in order to avoid any future easing, there would have to be a marked improvement in Australia's labour market.
However, last week's employment report for April saw the Unemployment Rate tick higher to 5.2% from March's 5.0%. Furthermore, although Employment Change was positive, a deeper look into the report shows a gloomier picture than the headline would suggest with Full-Time Employment Change printing at -6.3K.
Given Australia's overall disappointing April employment report, the market now expects the RBA to ease rates at their June meeting. According to ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, as of 20th May, the market is pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut on June 4th.
Elsewhere, tensions between the US and China over trade negotiations continue to escalate, further supporting our bearish bias.
What do you think?
· 1