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✅ [U.S.–China Tariff Easing Report Triggers Risk Reversal]

25 4月 2025, 10:45

✅ [U.S.–China Tariff Easing Report Triggers Risk Reversal]
— Market stabilizes temporarily, but Trump's next move could reverse everything. Watch for weekend profit-taking pressure —

■ Market Summary (Tokyo Afternoon – Early Europe)

Theme	Details
📰 WSJ Report: Trump Administration Considering Tariff Cuts	Proposal to gradually reduce tariffs from the current max of 145% to 50–65%. Market reacts positively with risk-reversal trades gaining momentum.
🤝 U.S.–Japan Finance Ministers’ Meeting Passes Uneventfully	U.S.: “No FX targets set”; Japan: “No structural framework discussed.” This eased yen appreciation fears, offering support to USD/JPY.
💬 Overall Sentiment: Cautious Relief	However, one new Trump comment could reverse the tide. Light stop-loss management remains essential.

■ USD/JPY: Targeting 144 on Reversal Momentum

Situation	Strategy
🔼 USD/JPY surpasses 143.80 as London opens	✅ Aim for a test of 144.20–30. For momentum followers, strictly cut losses if support at 143.50 breaks.
🔁 If U.S.–China tensions don’t flare again	🎯 A push toward 145 next week becomes likely. Watch for moves by option traders and CTAs.
🔻 If Trump resumes aggressive rhetoric	❌ Beware of a "fake breakout" scenario. Best to treat the 144 zone as a scalp target for now.

■ BTC/USD: Risk-On Rebound Continues

Market View	Commentary
📈 Current Price: ~$87,500–88,000	Risk sentiment improves, opening the door for a return to the $100,000 range.
📊 Technicals	4H 20EMA holding as support. A break above $88,500 may trigger further upside.
🛡 Strategy	✅ Buy on dips around $87,000. Target: $100,000+. Daily chart suggests trend resumption.

■ Key Economic Events Today

Event	Currency/Impact
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales (February)	CAD: Old data, likely ignored. Beware of spillover effects from position adjustments.
🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final)	USD: Little expected change from preliminary; may support USD sentiment if unchanged.
🇬🇧 🇨🇭 🇸🇪 Speeches by UK, Swiss, Swedish central bankers	Limited impact expected, but algorithmic reactions to surprise remarks remain a risk.

✅ Trade Strategy Summary (April 26)

Asset	Strategy
USD/JPY	🎯 Buy 143.60–143.80 → Take profit 144.20–30 / Stop below 143.50
BTC/USD	📈 Continue buying dips. Breakout above 88,500 may trigger acceleration. Watch for a move past 100,000
GOLD (XAU/USD)	📉 Reversal in progress → Caution for downside risk; short-term selling on rebounds

📌 Note:

The U.S. Fed enters its “blackout period” tonight, during which policy-related remarks are suspended until the May 2 FOMC.
→ As a result, markets will be increasingly sensitive to Trump’s comments, as well as geopolitical and trade headlines.
→ Stop-loss management is critical.