✅ [Volatility Pauses, But Underlying Risks Linger]
分析と予測

✅ [Volatility Pauses, But Underlying Risks Linger]

24 4月 2025, 10:20
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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✅ [Volatility Pauses, But Underlying Risks Linger]
— Market direction remains sensitive to key comments; cautious trading continues —

🔍 Market Overview (Tokyo Afternoon Session)

Theme Details
🔍 USD/JPY recovers to 143 but upside remains capped U.S. equity futures are soft → slowing yen selling / cautious dollar buying
🤝 Kato (Japan FM) × Bessent (U.S. Treasury Sec.) Meeting No direct demand for stronger yen confirmed so far. However, “maintaining strong USD policy” is seen as mere rhetoric, so the pressure for yen appreciation remains
🧨 Trump’s “flip-flop” rhetoric adds to market confusion Yesterday: “Ready to reduce tariffs” → USD buying / Today: China’s Commerce Ministry says “completely false” → Market returns to doubt mode

💱 USD/JPY: Holding Above 143? Key Comments Could Shift Scenarios

Price Zone Technical Outlook Strategic Action
🔼 143.30–143.60 Resistance zone on 1H/4H charts ✅ Favor selling into rebounds (cut if breakout is clear)
🔽 142.50–142.20 Heavy NY-cut option interest → expected support ✅ Short-term long is okay for counter-trend, but secure profits quickly due to headline risk
🎯 Break Level: 142.00 If broken, could test April lows → 140.50s in sight ✅ Candidate level for adding shorts (depending on London/NY flow)

📊 Today’s Key Events & Economic Releases

Event Importance Currency/Market Impact
🇩🇪 Germany Ifo Business Climate (Apr) ★★★☆☆ EUR: Weak results could weigh on EUR/USD
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Mar, prelim) ★★★★☆ USD: Forecast -1.8% MoM → Worse-than-expected could trigger renewed USD selling, JPY buying
🇺🇸 U.S. Existing Home Sales (Mar) ★★☆☆☆ USD: Lower impact event
🇺🇸 Speeches by Kashkari, ECB’s Lane, and other central bankers ★★★★☆ USD: USD/JPY remains sensitive to policy commentary
🌐 G20 Finance Ministers Meeting / IMF Spring Meetings ★★★★☆ Be alert for algo-triggered volatility if FX policy is mentioned

🧠 Market Sentiment: Suspicion and Lack of Drivers → Headline-Driven Environment

  • China’s Commerce Ministry denies reports of U.S.–China negotiations → Risk-off mood creeping in
  • Trump administration: Despite claims of “maintaining strong dollar,” actual stance leans toward FX-intervention-style pressure → Ongoing driver of yen strength

✅ Trade Strategy Summary (April 24)

Asset Strategy
USD/JPY 🎯 Sell rallies in 143.30–60 zone / below 142.20 → bearish momentum resumes
EUR/USD 📉 Watch for downside risk from German Ifo / ECB talk. Consider selling near 1.085–90
XAU/USD (Gold) 📉 In consolidation, but medium-term still bullish. Watch for long entry below 2320

📌 Overall:
Avoid chasing extreme trends. Instead, focus on short-term mean reversals and reactive trades based on headlines.


#negotiations, U.S.–China