Will USD/JPY Maintain Its Steady Tone?
In the Tokyo market, USD/JPY rebounded from its lows, with risk appetite triggering yen selling. The pair continues to lack a clear directional trend, but with support confirmed around the 145 yen level, the risk of upward movement seems to be increasing.
This Friday, BOJ Governor Ueda is scheduled to testify during a parliamentary review session, and his comments will be closely watched. The governor is expected to maintain his stance of being "data-dependent" regarding future policy, but any positive remarks about continuing rate hikes could lead to yen buying. However, looking at the current short-term interest rate market, the environment remains conducive to yen selling.
A key point of caution is the U.S. Department of Labor's annual revision, scheduled for release tomorrow at 11 PM. There are rumors of a significant downward revision of employment figures, potentially by as much as one million, although last year's revision was smaller than anticipated. If there is a substantial downward revision, it could lead to dollar selling, which might cap the upside for USD/JPY.
The focus for USD/JPY will likely be whether it can test the 148 yen level, with the pair currently centered around the 147 yen range. Cross-yen pairs are also showing increased upward momentum, particularly EUR/JPY, which could be set to test the 164 yen level.
Additionally, the Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank) is expected to announce an additional rate cut at its monetary policy meeting later today, the first since May. Moreover, the Turkish Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, which was initially scheduled for August 22nd but was moved up due to the Jackson Hole Symposium, is expected to maintain its current stance.
Today's Key Events:
The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release today, which could have a significant impact on CAD. Although my short position on CADJPY has already been stopped out, if the CPI comes in lower than expected, CAD selling could accelerate, so caution is advised.
