USD/JPY Short Position: Focus on Key Currencies and Technical Analysis (15-Minute Chart) - July 31, 2024
EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) - Strong Buy EUR/USD has recovered from the early week's decline and is currently trading around 1.0860. The euro is supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone GDP data, raising doubts about continued ECB rate cuts. While Germany's GDP showed an unexpected decline, the overall Eurozone economic growth was stronger than anticipated, limiting the impact on the euro. Upcoming focus includes Eurozone inflation data for July and U.S. labor market data.
GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar) - Strong Buy GBP/USD is showing an upward trend, currently testing 1.2845. The market awaits the outcomes of the Federal Reserve (FRB) and Bank of England meetings. The release of the FRB minutes will be closely watched for signals on the potential for a rate cut in September. The Bank of England is expected to either hold rates at 5.25% or cut by 25 basis points, with decisions being made amid reduced inflation risks and slowing economic growth.
NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar) - Strong Buy NZD/USD is showing mixed movements, attempting a break around 0.5900. Market participants await the FRB's meeting results, with heightened expectations for a rate cut in September. New Zealand's economic data has been mixed; the RBNZ Business Confidence Index surged to 27.1 points in July, but building consents fell sharply in June.
USD/JPY (US Dollar/Yen) - Sell USD/JPY remains stable around 152.60. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly raised interest rates to 0.25%, the first increase since 2007. This move is driven by sustained inflation at 2.6%, surpassing the 2.0% target, necessitating tighter monetary policy. The BOJ also reduced its bond purchase volume, suggesting further tightening ahead. The yen's response has been muted, with markets awaiting the outcome of the FRB meeting. The FRB is expected to keep rates at 5.50%, with investors hopeful for a rate cut in September.
XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) - Strong Buy XAU/USD shows a gradual upward trend, maintaining strong "bull" momentum formed at the end of last week. The pair is currently testing strong resistance at 2400.00, awaiting new catalysts. The market focuses on tonight's release of the FRB meeting minutes, with expectations for rates to be held at 5.50%. There is anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and possibly one or two cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the BOJ raised rates to 0.25% and reduced government debt purchases, signaling potential further tightening in response to rising inflation risks. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% tomorrow, which could support gold prices. Additionally, rising tensions in the Middle East are increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
