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Evelyn Braga Manilha
GBP/USD: Changes Affecting the Pair's Dynamics
The GBP/USD pair is on the rise for the second consecutive month, reaching the March high at 1.2817.
Recently, investors were concerned about the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve would completely abandon monetary policy easing this year due to increased inflationary pressure in the first quarter. However, new macroeconomic data brought relief: in April, the core personal consumption expenditures index, a key indicator for the Fed, fell from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Additionally, the growth of new job offers slowed to 8.059 million, and the May industrial activity index fell from 49.2 to 48.7 points. With weakening inflation and a possible economic slowdown, Fed officials may adopt a more dovish stance, with most experts expecting an interest rate cut in September and another by the end of the year.
On the other hand, the Bank of England, which was expected to cut interest rates in the summer, may postpone this change to the end of the year. In April, the consumer price index rose to 2.3%, above the forecasted 2.1%, and the British economy remains stable, with moderate growth in business activity in May. Furthermore, with the general parliamentary elections scheduled for July 4, the central bank will likely avoid major policy changes until a new government is formed.
Thus, an earlier change in monetary policy by the Fed and a later change by the Bank of England is expected, which should support the GBP/USD pair in the medium term.
Support and Resistance Levels
The GBP/USD broke out of the medium-term descending channel, surpassing the resistance at 1.2817. If this level is exceeded, the pair could advance to 1.2890 and 1.3061. On the other hand, if it falls below 1.2695, it could start a new downtrend towards 1.2573 and 1.2490.
Resistances: 1.2817, 1.2890, 1.3061
Supports: 1.2695, 1.2573, 1.2490
Trading Scenarios
Longs:
Entry: Above 1.2817
Targets: 1.2890, 1.3061
Stop Loss: 1.2765
Timeframe: 5-7 days
Shorts:
Entry: Below 1.2695
Targets: 1.2573, 1.2490
Stop Loss: 1.2770
Conclusion
The GBP/USD is benefiting from the uncertainty surrounding the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England. With recent economic data suggesting a potential shift in the Fed's stance and greater caution from the Bank of England due to the upcoming elections, the pair may continue to show volatility.
Traders should keep an eye on the mentioned support and resistance levels to take advantage of trading opportunities as the market adjusts to new economic and political developments.
The GBP/USD pair is on the rise for the second consecutive month, reaching the March high at 1.2817.
Recently, investors were concerned about the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve would completely abandon monetary policy easing this year due to increased inflationary pressure in the first quarter. However, new macroeconomic data brought relief: in April, the core personal consumption expenditures index, a key indicator for the Fed, fell from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Additionally, the growth of new job offers slowed to 8.059 million, and the May industrial activity index fell from 49.2 to 48.7 points. With weakening inflation and a possible economic slowdown, Fed officials may adopt a more dovish stance, with most experts expecting an interest rate cut in September and another by the end of the year.
On the other hand, the Bank of England, which was expected to cut interest rates in the summer, may postpone this change to the end of the year. In April, the consumer price index rose to 2.3%, above the forecasted 2.1%, and the British economy remains stable, with moderate growth in business activity in May. Furthermore, with the general parliamentary elections scheduled for July 4, the central bank will likely avoid major policy changes until a new government is formed.
Thus, an earlier change in monetary policy by the Fed and a later change by the Bank of England is expected, which should support the GBP/USD pair in the medium term.
Support and Resistance Levels
The GBP/USD broke out of the medium-term descending channel, surpassing the resistance at 1.2817. If this level is exceeded, the pair could advance to 1.2890 and 1.3061. On the other hand, if it falls below 1.2695, it could start a new downtrend towards 1.2573 and 1.2490.
Resistances: 1.2817, 1.2890, 1.3061
Supports: 1.2695, 1.2573, 1.2490
Trading Scenarios
Longs:
Entry: Above 1.2817
Targets: 1.2890, 1.3061
Stop Loss: 1.2765
Timeframe: 5-7 days
Shorts:
Entry: Below 1.2695
Targets: 1.2573, 1.2490
Stop Loss: 1.2770
Conclusion
The GBP/USD is benefiting from the uncertainty surrounding the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England. With recent economic data suggesting a potential shift in the Fed's stance and greater caution from the Bank of England due to the upcoming elections, the pair may continue to show volatility.
Traders should keep an eye on the mentioned support and resistance levels to take advantage of trading opportunities as the market adjusts to new economic and political developments.
· 1
Evelyn Braga Manilha
Analysis: The Week of Gold
Let's talk about the XAU/USD pair, folks! We are seeing mixed dynamics here, with the price consolidating near the 2350.00 mark. Investors are in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting new events that could move the quotations. The big expectation of the week is the U.S. employment report, which is released on Friday. This report is crucial to understand how the economy is doing and can give us clues about possible interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.
Currently, there is a 51% probability that the first rate cut will happen in September, with more cuts possible in November or December.
The dollar started the week under pressure due to weak macroeconomic data on business activity. The ISM manufacturing sector index fell from 49.2 to 48.7 in May, well below expectations.
On Wednesday, we have the Bank of Canada meeting, which may cut the reference rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. This could set an interesting precedent. At the same time, the U.S. dollar might gain short-term momentum as the interest rate differential with the Fed would increase.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a moderate easing of monetary policy, also by 25 basis points. This could increase the attractiveness of gold, which yields no interest but influences the dollar's dynamics.
In the gold futures market, the bullish trend continues. According to the CFTC, the number of net speculative positions increased from 229.8 thousand to 236.6 thousand last week. However, mixed operations indicate no clear direction in the market. Buyers reduced their positions by 17,018 contracts, while sellers decreased by 2,267 contracts.
Support and Resistance Levels
Let's go to the charts! On the daily, the "Bollinger Bands" show an attempt to reverse to a horizontal plane, with the price range remaining relatively wide. The MACD tries to reverse upwards but still maintains a sell signal. The Stochastic shows firmer growth, but little correlation with the actual market dynamics.
Resistances: 2354.65 | 2364.04 | 2378.39 | 2400.00
Supports: 2336.50 | 2320.00 | 2300.00 | 2285.00
Trading Scenarios Longs:
Entry: After breaking 2354.65 upwards
Target: 2378.39
Stop Loss: 2340.00
Time Frame: 2-3 days
Shorts:
Entry: After breaking 2336.50 downwards
Target: 2300.00
Stop Loss: 2354.65
Conclusion:
We are in a consolidation period after an attempt at corrective growth. With major economic events on the horizon, including U.S. employment reports and central bank meetings, the market is waiting for new catalysts. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers should be prepared for trading opportunities, taking advantage of critical support and resistance levels.
Let's talk about the XAU/USD pair, folks! We are seeing mixed dynamics here, with the price consolidating near the 2350.00 mark. Investors are in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting new events that could move the quotations. The big expectation of the week is the U.S. employment report, which is released on Friday. This report is crucial to understand how the economy is doing and can give us clues about possible interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.
Currently, there is a 51% probability that the first rate cut will happen in September, with more cuts possible in November or December.
The dollar started the week under pressure due to weak macroeconomic data on business activity. The ISM manufacturing sector index fell from 49.2 to 48.7 in May, well below expectations.
On Wednesday, we have the Bank of Canada meeting, which may cut the reference rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. This could set an interesting precedent. At the same time, the U.S. dollar might gain short-term momentum as the interest rate differential with the Fed would increase.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a moderate easing of monetary policy, also by 25 basis points. This could increase the attractiveness of gold, which yields no interest but influences the dollar's dynamics.
In the gold futures market, the bullish trend continues. According to the CFTC, the number of net speculative positions increased from 229.8 thousand to 236.6 thousand last week. However, mixed operations indicate no clear direction in the market. Buyers reduced their positions by 17,018 contracts, while sellers decreased by 2,267 contracts.
Support and Resistance Levels
Let's go to the charts! On the daily, the "Bollinger Bands" show an attempt to reverse to a horizontal plane, with the price range remaining relatively wide. The MACD tries to reverse upwards but still maintains a sell signal. The Stochastic shows firmer growth, but little correlation with the actual market dynamics.
Resistances: 2354.65 | 2364.04 | 2378.39 | 2400.00
Supports: 2336.50 | 2320.00 | 2300.00 | 2285.00
Trading Scenarios Longs:
Entry: After breaking 2354.65 upwards
Target: 2378.39
Stop Loss: 2340.00
Time Frame: 2-3 days
Shorts:
Entry: After breaking 2336.50 downwards
Target: 2300.00
Stop Loss: 2354.65
Conclusion:
We are in a consolidation period after an attempt at corrective growth. With major economic events on the horizon, including U.S. employment reports and central bank meetings, the market is waiting for new catalysts. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers should be prepared for trading opportunities, taking advantage of critical support and resistance levels.
· 1