Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 8

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EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis - secondary correction to the daily bearish reversal

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: the price is on local downtrend with 1.1143 support level as the nearest taregt to re-enter. The price broke symmetric triangle pattern to below, and RSI indicator is estimating the correction to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.1615 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
  • If price will break 1.1143 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.14941.1143
1.1615N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1143 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1615 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: correction

SUMMARY : correction

TREND : possible bearish reversal
 

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 22.05 - 29.05: ranging within Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction

Daily price is located to be inside Ichimoku cloud for the secondary ranging condition within the primary bullish: the price is testing 1.1179 and 1.1143 support levels to below for the daily bearish reversal with Absolute Strength indicator and Trend Strergn indicator which are estimating the bearish condition for the price ion the near future.



If D1 price will break 1.1143 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1446 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 1.1494 level as the nearest target in this case..
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1446 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1143 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish to the bearish reversal
Resistance
Support
1.14461.1179
1.1494
1.1143
SUMMARY : ranging within the cloud

TREND : ranging
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.21 11:18

Weekly Outlook: 2016, May 22 - May 29 (based on the article)

The US dollar had a positive week, enjoying support from the Fed. UK and US GDP updates, US durable goods orders and key German surveys stand out. These are the highlights of this week.

  1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. A rise to 12.1 is expected.
  2. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. Business sentiment is expected to reach 106.9.
  3. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The BoC is not expected to change its monetary policy this month.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
  5. UK GDP data: Thursday, 8:30. The number will likely be confirmed in this publication.
  6. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise 0.3% in April, as core orders are expected post the same gain.
  7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of weekly claims is expected to decline slightly to 275,000.
  8. US GDP data: Friday, 12:30.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis - daily correction to the bearish reversal

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish trend: the price is crossing 100-day SMA to below with 1.1152 support level as a next target for the price to be reversed to the daily bearish market condition.

  • If the price will break 1.1464 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1152 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.14641.1152
1.1615N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.1152 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1464 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : correction

TREND : ready to the bearish reversal
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.26 10:55

Trading News Events: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



"Why Is This Event Important:Even though Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to implement higher borrowing-costs, we may see a greater dissent at the next quarterly meeting in June as a growing number of central bank officials see the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment.’"

Daily Targets
EURUSD D1


  • Daily price is on bullish market condition located near and above 200-day SMA reversal.
  • The price is on narrow ranging within 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.1371 and Fibo support level at 1.1128.
  • If the price breaks 1.1371 resistance to above on daily close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If the price breaks 1.1128 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement to the primary bearish condition will be started.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition aroud 200-day SMA to be continuing in the near future.

Intra-Day Targets
EURUSD M5


  • The price is located inside the ranging area within 200 period SMA (200 SMAS) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA) waiting for direction.
  • 200 SMA is located below the price for the bullish condition.
  • RSI indicator is estimating for the price to be on ranging bullish condition above 200 SMA area.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • If the price breaks 1.1189 resistance level to above on close intra-day bar so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging up to the new 'top' resistance to be formed.
  • If the price breaks 1.1165 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary ebarish market condition may be started.
  • If the price breaks 1.1152 support level so the price will be reversed to the bearish condition with the good possibility to breakdown.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.26 10:55

...

Intra-Day Targets

EURUSD M5


  • The price is located inside the ranging area within 200 period SMA (200 SMAS) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA) waiting for direction.
  • 200 SMA is located below the price for the bullish condition.
  • RSI indicator is estimating for the price to be on ranging bullish condition above 200 SMA area.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • If the price breaks 1.1189 resistance level to above on close intra-day bar so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging up to the new 'top' resistance to be formed.
  • If the price breaks 1.1165 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary ebarish market condition may be started.
  • If the price breaks 1.1152 support level so the price will be reversed to the bearish condition with the good possibility to breakdown.

EUR/USD M5: 47 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.27 07:17

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks - "We do not expect any comments on the near-term"

2016-05-27 17:15 GMT | [USD - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech]

Barclays:

  • Gregory Mankiw will engage Chair Yellen in "a conversation about her groundbreaking achievements.”
  • We do not expect any comments on the near-term path of monetary policy as we believe she will wait for her recently scheduled June 6 speech to make any substantive policy comment.

==========

H4 price is located below SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition for the ranging within 1.1216 resistance level and 1.1128 support level. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the secondary rally to be started with 1.1242 level as a nearest target to re-enter. The bullish reversal level at 1.1348 located near and abvove 200 SMA, and if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.


  • If the price will break 1.1216 resistance level to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.1128 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12161.1128
1.1242N/A

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.27 10:36

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (adapted from the article)

"An upward revision in the preliminary 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may trigger near-term selloff in EUR/USD as signs of a stronger recovery provide the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with greater scope to implement higher borrowing-costs."

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

"With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ a faster rate of growth may encourage a greater number of Fed officials to vote for a rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in June as the central bank sees a sustainable recovery over the policy horizon."


Intra-Day Levels
EURUSD H1

The price is located below 200 SMA for the bearish market condition - price is on ranging around 100 SMA waiting for direction of the trend:

  • for the ranging bearish in case the price will be inside 100 SMA/200 SMA area, and
  • for the primary bearish trend to be continuing in case the price will be located below 100 SMA/200 SMA area.


If the price breaks 1.1174 support level on close hourly bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing up to 1.1138 as a good target to re-enter.
If the price breaks 1.1236 resistance level on close hourly bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.27 15:05


EUR/USD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event :


H1 price broke 1.1174 support level to below on close H1 bar for the bearish trend to be continuing: the price is breaking 1.1152 level for breakdown with 1.1128 bearish target. Alternative, if the price crossed 1.1200 resistance to above so the reversal of the price movement to the bullish condition will be started.




 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.27 07:17

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks - "We do not expect any comments on the near-term"

2016-05-27 17:15 GMT | [USD - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech]

Barclays:

  • Gregory Mankiw will engage Chair Yellen in "a conversation about her groundbreaking achievements.”
  • We do not expect any comments on the near-term path of monetary policy as we believe she will wait for her recently scheduled June 6 speech to make any substantive policy comment.

==========

H4 price is located below SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition for the ranging within 1.1216 resistance level and 1.1128 support level. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the secondary rally to be started with 1.1242 level as a nearest target to re-enter. The bullish reversal level at 1.1348 located near and abvove 200 SMA, and if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.


  • If the price will break 1.1216 resistance level to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.1128 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12161.1128
1.1242N/A

H4 price is breaking 1.1128 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish breakdown:


On the weekly chart: the price is breaking Yearly Central Pivot at 1.1101 to below on weekly open bar for now. If the price breaks this level on close bar so the global bearish reversal for this pair will be started:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.31 18:12

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence and 48 pips price movement

2016-05-31 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Change in the total value of profits earned by corporations.

==========

"Consumer confidence declined slightly in May, primarily due to consumers rating current conditions less favorably than in April," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Expectations declined further, as consumers remain cautious about the outlook for business and labor market conditions. Thus, they continue to expect little change in economic activity in the months ahead."


==========

EUR/USD M5: 48 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news event



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