Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 11

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.23 09:08

U.K. Brexit Referendum: Polls Open (based on the article)

  • "In a vote to leave, GBP would come under significant pressure, while risk currencies (CHF and JPY) benefit. Potential policy responses limit the degree of strength. We expect the effects on EUR/USD to be relatively muted."
  • "The payout for Bonds is asymmetric. In a vote to remain, yields would rise but not significantly, and mostly in the Euro-area core. Upon “Leave”, the path of least resistance is for yields to drop substantially, especially in the UK & the US."
  • "The bond yield/policy cushion, combined with the healthy distance from the macro shock, implies less downside for the S&P than for the FTSE or Eurostoxx upon "Leave". Upon "Remain", the S&P could plausibly make fresh highs."
  • "Euro-area periphery yields and corporate credit spreads have significant room to widen in a decision to leave, although temporarily perhaps before a policy response is triggered. The upside is capped in an event to "stay".
  • "Risk sentiment swings may affect emerging market assets, but much less so relative to Euro-area and UK assets, given the cushion from lower US yields."
  • "Lastly, we anticipate limited pass-through to Oil prices. The broad decline in US real rates creates more upside than downside in Gold prices."

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EUR/USD M5: 17 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum: Polls Open news event


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GBP/USD M5: 67 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum: Polls Open news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.24 08:45

U.K. Voters Back 'Brexit,' Will Leave European Union (based on the article)

  • "The U.K. is poised to leave the European Union after a historic referendum, vote tallies showed early Friday, setting the stage for an unprecedented and messy untangling with far-reaching implications."
  • "As of 6:05 a.m. local time Friday (1:05 a.m. ET), NBC's British partner ITV News put "Leave" at 51.8 percent with "Remain" garnering 48.2 percent, with the "Leave" campaign racking up the necessary 16.8 million votes to win."
  • "The results in favor of an exit — or "Brexit" — sent shockwaves through global markets. The pound plunged to $1.35, it's lowest level since 1985."

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EUR/USD : 465 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results Expectation


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GBP/USD : 1,639 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results Expectation



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.27 08:31

Realization of Brexit is a Potential Nightmare for the Euro (based on the article)


"Volatility in markets and the uncertainty around the long-term viability of the EU will likely put a small but noticeable chill on economic activity, which conveniently gives the European Central Bank cover to ease further, something the Euro-Zone desperately needs. Overnight Index Swaps markets have dragged forward expectations for a rate cut by September 2016 (62%), suggesting that markets feel liquidity assistance will be necessary as uncertainty persists (there are signs of funding pressures increasing). Anticipation of ECB action could weigh against the Euro, as it has done consistently over the past five years."


Daily price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA on Friday for the bearish market condition. New Monday's candle was opened below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal in the primary bearish area of the chart. RSI indicator is estimating the bearish condition, and symmetric triangle pattern was crossed by the price to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0911 nearest target.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.28 10:59

Intra-Day Fundamentals: EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum

2016-06-28 08:00 GMT | [EUR - EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum]

[EUR - EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum] = MEPs will meet on in Brussels for an extraordinary plenary session at 10:00. Parliament's political group leaders will discuss the consequences of the UK vote with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and a representative of the Dutch Presidency of the Council. They will vote on a non-binding resolution to feed into Wednesday's meeting of 27 EU heads of state and government on the same topic. Parliament will have to approve any withdrawal agreement with the UK as well as any agreement on a new relationship between the EU and the UK.

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European Parliament to press UK for quick exit ahead of summit (from Independent article):

"European Union lawmakers are meeting in emergency session to discuss the U.K.'s unprecedented vote to leave the EU, set to call for Britain to trigger the exit process immediately. A non-binding draft resolution drawn up for Tuesday's session says the process should be launched once Prime Minister David Cameron notifies the outcome of the British referendum to EU leaders. Cameron is to share his views about the referendum and perhaps Britain's future at a summit in Brussels on Tuesday afternoon. He has signaled that Britain might not trigger the exit clause known as Article 50 until October. EU nations acknowledge the political chaos in the U.K. but they want Article 50 triggered as soon as possible to calm markets and reassure European citizens."


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EUR/USD M5: 19 pips price movement by EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum news event


GBP/USD M5: 68 pips price movement by EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.28 14:44

Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-06-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter of 2015, real GDP increased 1.4 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, th increase in real GDP was 0.8 percent. With the third estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; exports increased more than previously estimated."
  • "Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods and services in the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in production, increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth.  The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth."

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EUR/USD M5: 9 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event


GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.29 07:54

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: bearish breakdown

H4 price is on bearish condition with the secondary ranging: the price is located below 200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart with the ranging within 1.1426 "bullish reversal" resistance level and 1.0911 "bearish continuation" level.

If the price breaks 1.1426 level to above so the intra-day bullish reversal will be started, and if the price breaks 1.0911 level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.


Daily price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish condition. Symmetric triangle pattern was broken to below with 1.0911 level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing in the near future.


United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD price to be on bearish market condition with 1.0820 target:
"There is no change to the bearish EUR view; the current movement is viewed as a short-term consolidation phase which should lead to further EUR weakness towards 1.0820 in the coming days."

  • If daily price will break 1.0911 support on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If daily price will break 1.1426 resistance on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.30 17:48

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Gov Carney Speaks and 185 pips range price movement

2016-06-30 15:00 GMT | [GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks]

[GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks] = The speech at the Bank of England, in London.

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Uncertainty, the economy and policy - speech by Mark Carney :


  • "In recent years, policy uncertainty has increased globally. In some jurisdictions, fiscal frameworks have been questioned; in others, exchange rate regimes. And with very low interest rates and expanding unconventional policies, the efficacy of monetary policy itself has been questioned. The charge that central banks are out of monetary ammunition is wrong, but the widespread absence of global price pressures demands that our firepower be well aimed."
  • "When uncertainty is high, policymakers should have three objectives.  First, conduct a sober, objective assessment of the outlook and the risks to it.  Second, develop and communicate a plan to reduce those risks and to seize new opportunities.  And third, do no harm, by minimising any possible confusion about the commitment to core macroeconomic policy frameworks themselves."

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GBP/USD M5: 185 pips range price movement by BoE Gov Carney Speaks news event :



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