Sharing My Secret Trend Reversal Strategy with an 80% Win Rate
There are no secrets in trading. All market data is publicly available for anyone to analyze, either to make millions or lose millions. If your strategy truly has an 80% win rate, prove it with a historical backtest spanning years of data. Without that, anyone with experience in trading will be skeptical.
Believing in so-called "secret" strategies posted online is a risky move. If you're confident in its success, why not code it, backtest it, and share the verified results? That would add credibility to your claim. Until then, it's just another unproven strategy. Maybe you should solve your issues in strategy, fix it following the process :
🔁 Strategy Trading Success Flowchart
1. Idea Generation
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🔹 Market Observation
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🔹 Pattern Recognition
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🔹 Inspiration (Indicators, Price Action, News, etc.)
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2. Strategy Design (The Skeleton)
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📌 Entry Criteria (e.g., indicator crossover, candle pattern)
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📌 Exit Criteria (e.g., SL/TP, trailing stop)
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📌 Risk Management (e.g., max % risk per trade)
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📌 Position Sizing
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📌 Timeframe Selection
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3. Backtesting
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🔍 Historical Data Testing (over multiple years & market conditions)
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📊 Analyze metrics:
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Win Rate
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Risk-Reward Ratio
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Drawdown
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Expectancy
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Sharpe Ratio
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4. Optimization
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🔧 Adjust parameters without curve-fitting
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🔁 Re-test
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5. Forward Testing (Paper Trading)
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🧪 Demo Trading in real-time
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🧾 Record results & compare to backtest
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6. Go Live (Real Trading)
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💼 Start with small capital
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✅ Stick to rules
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📓 Journal every trade
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7. Review & Refine
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🧠 Review results weekly/monthly
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🔁 Adapt to changing market conditions
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🔁 Repeat backtesting if needed
Wooow, we really like people who share loosing strategies, many thanks man!
Also, RSI, Bollinger, EMA... i'm surprised, this seems really interesting and something new, never saw something similar. This is a very secret strategy.
You don't need any trade setup to get this winning rate.
If you set SL = 5 x TP, you get 80% of winning rate, in any random entry point. You can increase you winning rate to 90% by increase your SL to 10 x TP.
This is not secret. This is just a statistical probability.
You don't need any trade setup to get this winning rate.
If you set SL = 5 x TP, you get 80% of winning rate, in any random entry point. You can increase you winning rate to 90% by increase your SL to 10 x TP.
This is not secret. This is just a statistical probability.
If you set SL = 5 x TP, you get 80% of winning rate, in any random entry point. You can increase you winning rate to 90% by increase your SL to 10 x TP.
I agree with your point. I am trying to improve and fix. Soon, i will be testing with equal Take Profit and stoploss
the more risk you enable, then high win rate isn't really going to matter when one giant loss trade can take away half of the account
Your correct. One loss = 10 win. Win rate is not always important, i got this point. i am trying to improve it.
I believe you that the strategy is profitable, but see I came to learn over time that many indicator strategies are actually profitable once you have:
I am taking care of High impact news. the only place i am lacking is Risk management.
I agree with your point. I am trying to improve and fix. Soon, i will be testing with equal Take Profit and stoploss
Your correct. One loss = 10 win. Win rate is not always important, i got this point. i am trying to improve it.
I am taking care of High impact news. the only place i am lacking is Risk management.
Skipping high impact news is not necessarly a good thing. In the opposite, high impact news is a moment in which expected volatility is high, most of cases in both directions, so there are no guarantee that skipping that time will make a strategy working better, for sure you are filtering some days and trading less, so less days on market = less opportunity to make losses.
Skipping news is some that most of trades thing it's mandatory, but most of them still buring accounts and loosing money in the same way even if skipping it, because they ignore that what destroy accounts are huge movements that longs for days, and due to geopeopolitical reasons, not just a forex news release (the crash of NZD, just to name one that wiped out most of traders in last week).
In the case of your "secret" strategy, what make it a looser one is not the risk management, not only. It's the strategy itself. EMA for identifying trends is almost always ineffective, same thing checking oscillator for overbought and oversold area. You may be successfull in ranging markets, but once it starts trending, you will wipe out all your profits.
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This strategy is currently giving me an 80% win rate, tested for almost three months. However, I am still experiencing minimal losses because a single losing trade wipes out the profits from 10 winning trades. I am in loss not because of my technical analysis settings but due to poor money management, risk management, and risk-to-reward ratio.
In this strategy, we use the RSI, Bollinger Bands, and Moving Average indicators:
Buy Trade Setup:
- RSI (Period 14) < 20 → Oversold condition.
- Current market price touches the Bollinger Bands (Period 30, Deviation 2) Lower Band/Support Line.
- Current market price is above the 200 EMA (High Price).
If all three conditions are met, take a buy trade.Sell Trade Setup:
- RSI (Period 14) > 80 → Overbought condition.
- Current market price touches the Bollinger Bands (Period 30, Deviation 2) Upper Band/Resistance Line.
- Current market price is below the 200 EMA (Low Price).
If all three conditions are met, take a sell trade.These settings provide very few signals per day—just 2-3 per currency pair.
Alternative Settings for More Signals
If you need more signals, you can adjust:- Bollinger Bands to Period 20, Deviation 2 (default settings).
- 200 EMA based on Close Price instead of High/Low Price.
With these settings, you can get 5+ signals per day, but the win rate decreases to 70%.Why Am I in Loss?
I set my Take Profit (TP) to 100 and Stop Loss (SL) to 500. With a lot size of 0.01, I make $1 per winning trade. However, even if I win 5 trades and lose 1, my losing trade wipes out all my profits.Example:
Even with a high win rate, my poor risk management keeps me in loss. I tried lowering the SL, but that significantly reduced the win rate, leading to even more losses.
I am sharing this strategy so you can try it as well, provide feedback, and share any ideas, new settings, or money management strategies.
Thank you!