Apophenia as an apologist for clairvoyance in the capital markets. - page 21
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Again, a naïve judgement based on nothing but personal fantasy... For firstly, people change, albeit slowly, the way of life changes, the nature of thinking changes, and it would be the height of folly to try to equate the trade of Paleolithic savages with modern stock exchanges or auctions...
Of course there are some of the most general principles of the trading process, but no more than that, no such over-generalising conclusions can be drawn from them, again a cognitive distortion of the author, no doubt caused by a lack of good education...
Besides, algotrading is gaining more and more strength, what to do with it...
How can "fractals and waves" explain dividend gaps? How will they explain the inverse correlation between the bond body and the central bank rate?
The author doesn't even seem to ask himself such questions due to his lack of basic financial knowledge.
Of course drawing waves and fractals is much easier than understanding the real structure of markets.
Krylov wrote about the monkey with glasses more than 200 years ago.
people really don't change
alas, monkeys have been, are and will continue to be
and it is clear to everybody except for the monkeys themselves))))
Yes the fable "The monkey and the glasses" is perfectly in theme.... 😉
Put fractals and attractors everywhere and it'll be just like the fable...
...
If someone doesn't like the "rules of the game" I've proposed, I don't see what's wrong with that. Give me other "rules of the game" and I'll gladly accept them, if their validity proves to be higher.
...
https://disshelp.ru/blog/chto-my-ponimaem-pod-validnostyu-metoda-issledovaniya/: What do we mean by validity of a research method?
"Validity literally means "stable, suitable, appropriate". In scientific circles, the term is used as an indicator that assesses the suitability of a particular research methodology in a particular situation, setting."
"Validity will prove superior" to what meaning? I couldn't find any statistical evidence in the thread about the suitability of the methodology. Do you want to compare it to zero?
I would also like to know on what basis the author is sure that the market can be modelled by a dynamic system.
A dynamic system is defined by the space of states and the law of change of states with time, which (space and law) must be presented explicitly.
Blind faith in mythical deterministic "market laws" or "rules of the game" is the hallmark of many false prophets and/or illiterate philistines.
Also the belief that the price is moved by the geometric shapes drawn on the chart and not the other way round)
As of January 13, 2022, the 3rd segment of the fractal, which is marked in red on the chart with the time-frame of 1 hour, is being formed in the fractal structure on the Dow Jones index.
Considering higher fractal structures, the most probable scenario is the decrease of the index values within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of the red fractal, which is marked as 3''.
Any market condition has many outcomes. At least two. You will never know exactly which one it will be or when.
any market condition has multiple outcomes. At least two. You will never know exactly which one it will be, nor when.
You don't need to know for sure, a slight skewing of the odds in your direction is enough.
"Apophenia often serves to explain paranormal or religious claims and is used in journalistic speculation."
Klaus Conrad described the phenomenon in application to the distortion of reality that occurs in psychosis, an unmotivated vision of interconnections accompanied by a characteristic sense of inadequate importance. 🙂
Now that's funny... They've been singing and singing these mantras for years now, but nothing happens... Back in the 90's there were "apophenic" articles that the dollar was all... the U.S. was about to collapse... it's time to pay its debts... etc...
I pity these schizophrenic prognosticators... they're like religious zealots... and the dollar is still the best on the planet...
P.S. I haven't read the article of course 🙂 but I'll assume beforehand that it's a mess of far-fetched analogies with plucked pictures from the internet about fractals, about Fibonacci numbers, interspersed with emotional unmotivated judgments and cognitive distortions, maybe even with mystical delusions.
Only the monkey from Krylov's fable can discuss an article without reading it.
Also the belief that prices are moved by the geometric shapes drawn on the chart and not the other way around)
If you had read my article you would know my opinion on what moves prices in the market and you wouldn't have written a blank.